J12.8
Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Guocheng Yuan, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and W. Wang
Seasonal forecastng with NCEP coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been run routinely since 1995. In the current system uncertainty in the coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts is considered only through the "lagged forecasting" method where consecutive forecasts are averaged. In this presentation we will explore the possibility of using more sophisticated ensemble techniques. In particular the use of the breeding method will be explored for the generation of initial perturbations for the coupled system for seasonal forecasting in a perfect model environment.
Joint Session 12, Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Room 6C
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