Recorded presentation1.1
Fred Sanders’ Contribution to Improving the Forecast of Rapid Cyclogenesis
Louis W. Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Kistler, P. J. Kocin, and J. E. Sienkiewicz
Fred Sanders’ career spanned the period from the late 1940's to now. As a synoptician during this 50+ year period, he was up against the forces that divided the “analyst” approach from those that were promoting a more analytic or theoretical approach (QG, baroclinic instability, balance equations, numerical model). While recognizing the abilities of the analytic approach to capture the general features of baroclinic flow regimes and related cyclogenesis, he also showed the mesoscale details that were being missed, especially as they related to development rates and frontal structure associated with rapid cyclogenesis. The focus of this paper is to review how Fred Sanders’ career influenced our understanding of rapid cyclogenesis and the ability of numerical models to forecasts these systems, especially over the ocean. The progress in forecasting rapid cyclogenesis in the 1980's will be highlighted as increased understanding of the interaction between the physical and dynamical processes were factored into higher-resolution, global and regional numerical models for the first time, with the result being more consistent forecasts of cyclones and associated weather regimes. A review of a mis-forecast storm (December 1947) at the front end of Fred Sanders’ career and the simulation of the storm by the current operational NCEP model will also be presented. The model simulation for this important storm system (which yielded the heaviest 24-hour snowfall recorded in New York City) will serve as a measure of progress over Fred Sanders’ illustrious career and also prove why his forecast for this storm was right (46 years later). Recorded presentation
Session 1, Cyclones (Room 617)
Monday, 12 January 2004, 9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Room 617
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