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Quasi-Geostrophic Analysis of Explosive Marine Cyclogenesis: The Blizzard of ’78
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and B. R. Colman
Explosive marine cyclogenesis was one important focus of Fred Sanders’ innovative and broad research program that spanned more than a quarter of a century. From his engaging recountings of personal experiences while sailing along the East Coast, to his paper on the synoptic climatology of the “bomb,” to his advocacy of the use of ensemble forecasts to improve medium range forecasting of these systems, Fred has contributed tremendously to our current understanding of the forcing mechanisms and behavior of rapidly deepening lows.
I will review some of the history of his involvement with “bombs,” and relate his research to current thinking about the synoptic and mesoscale structure of what New Englanders call Nor’easters. In doing this I will draw upon analysis and simulation of the Blizzard of ’78 – a storm that just happened to strike while I was one of Fred’s students. The Blizzard of ’78 had all the ingredients of a classic bomb, and took shape close enough to the coastline to shut down Boston and M.I.T.
I will focus on the quasi-geostrophic analysis of this storm, and detail the role of the various forcing mechanisms as this storm slowed and explosively deepened. In a companion paper, Brad Colman will compare a recent model run using today’s Eta model with the operational model output available in 1978. He will conclude by highlighting the evolution of operational approaches to these important east coast events.
Recorded presentationSession 1, Cyclones (Room 617)
Monday, 12 January 2004, 9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Room 617
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