Those students who signed a consent form sat for a pre-test and a post-test on forecasting methods and their origins and completed a post-project survey. Of 17 students enrolled in SM2, 12 completed all of the aforementioned requirements. Prior to lecturing on forecasting methods, a 12-point pre-test was administered wherein students were surveyed on rudimentary aspects of forecasting methods. Their average was 6.6/12. After lecturing on forecasting methods, introducing the statistical weather forecasting software and allowing students to use the program and its product for six weeks, the subjects were retested. The post-test, identical to the pre-test, revealed an average score of 11.3/12, an increase of 4.7 points; the smallest score increase was 3 points, the largest was 7.
Among other findings from the post-project survey, students recognized the limitations of the statistical approach; none agreed that the approach alone was accurate; 10 of 12 strongly disagreed that the statistical approach had become their primary forecasting tool. yet, valuable lessons were learned: 10 of 12 recognized that the quality of a forecast was often the result of the of the quality of the initial data; 7 of 12 recognized this approach as a bridge between basic forecasting approaches (climatology and persistence) and sophisticated models (Eta, GFS).
Supplementary URL: