84th AMS Annual Meeting

Thursday, 15 January 2004: 2:15 PM
Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles
Room 6C
Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ross, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James
Using the 1948-2002 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, an objective ensemble natural analog system is employed to produce monthly-mean forecasts of tropical 1000-500hPa thickness out to two years forecast length. When averaged over the entire 54-year verification period (1948-2000), the analog system is more skillful that either climatology or persistence out to 24 months and out to 8.5 months compared to an immediately previous 10-year climatology. Heidke skill score values vary seasonally, but average 0.43 for a 3-month forecast, 0.37 for a 6-month forecast, 0.34 for a 9-month forecast, 0.33 for a 12-month forecast, and 0.32 for an 18-month forecast. This presentation will outline the approach and give a brief overview of the results. The results will be examined in more detail in the related poster presentation given by the same authors.

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