84th AMS Annual Meeting

Tuesday, 13 January 2004: 11:30 AM
Ensemble perturbations for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasting
Room 6C
Guocheng Yuan, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and W. Wang
Seasonal forecastng with NCEP coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been run routinely since 1995. In the current system uncertainty in the coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts is considered only through the "lagged forecasting" method where consecutive forecasts are averaged. In this presentation we will explore the possibility of using more sophisticated ensemble techniques. In particular the use of the breeding method will be explored for the generation of initial perturbations for the coupled system for seasonal forecasting in a perfect model environment.

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