Session: Prediction (Use of Climate Statistics in Forecasting) (87th AMS Annual Meeting)

Wednesday, 17 January 2007: 8:30 AM-11:45 AM

206A (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)

Chair: Chris C. Funk, UCSB

Papers:

8:30 AM

4.1

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and subseasonal prediction

Mathew A. Barlow, University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and D. Salstein

Recorded presentation

8:45 AM

4.2

The Application of Climate Data Sets in Calibrating Ensemble Guidance for the Prediction of Hazardous Weather

David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin, S. J. Weiss, R. S. Schneider, and J. T. Schaefer

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (248.1 kB)

9:00 AM

4.3

Systematic errors effect on seasonal predictive skill

Mei Zhao, COLA, Calverton, MD; and T. M. DelSole, P. Dirmeyer, and B. Kirtman

9:15 AM

4.4

Statistical Climate Prediction for the southwestern U.S.: A 7-Year Assessment

Klaus E. Wolter, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO

9:30 AM

4.5

Relationships between Precipitation in Korea and Northwestern Pacific High during Spring

Sang-Un Han, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, South Korea; and H. R. Byun, D. W. Kim, and S. J. Lee

9:45 AM

4.6

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

Chris C. Funk, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and J. Verdin and G. Husak

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

10:00 AM

4.6a

Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

10:30 AM

4.7

Extreme Value Analysis of global reanalysis data

Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Pocernich, B. G. Brown, and H. E. Brooks

10:45 AM

4.8

Extension of the CPC MJO Index to Forecast Mode

Qin Zhang, RS Information Systems, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Gottschalck and Y. Xue

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjoindex/MJO_INDEX.html

Poster PDF (468.7 kB)

11:00 AM

4.9

Evaluation of WRF's ability to predict the coverage of air-mass thunderstorms and applications to short-term forecasting

Cody L. Phillips, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Pinto and R. M. Rasmussen

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (389.6 kB)

11:15 AM

4.10

Consolidation of Multi Method Forecasts of Pacific SST

Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. Van den Dool, D. Unger, and P. Peng

11:30 AM

4.11

A climatological study of nighttime rapidly developing low cloud ceilings in a stable environment

William H. Bauman III, ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. H. Barrett, III, J. L. Case, M. M. Wheeler, and G. W. Baggett

Recorded presentation Poster PDF (800.4 kB)

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Session 4: Prediction (Use of Climate Statistics in Forecasting)