Extended Abstract (472K)11.1
AWRP Quality Assessment Research Team (QART): User-based verification and NextGen alignment
Jennifer Mahoney, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO
The Quality Assessment Research Team (QART) is one of nine Research Teams supported by the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). Unlike most of the AWRP aviation weather teams (e.g., Inflight Icing, Turbulence, etc.), the QART is an independent assessment team with three main functions: 1) to provide objective assessments of aviation weather products transitioning from a research environment to NWS operations, 2) to provide an historical record of aviation weather forecast quality and skill, and 3) to transition capabilities via traditional and advanced verification approaches and automated verification systems to NWS and FAA operations, i.e., Real-Time Verification System(RTVS). In support of these functions, the QART is responsible for developing verification approaches for aviation weather forecasts, and for automated verification tools that allow users easy access to statistical results. However, in order for the QART to realign with the Next Generation Air Transportation (NextGen) automation and information era, a significant change from the traditional meteorological verification approaches and basic verification system tools are required.
The QART is transforming traditional meteorological verification approaches and techniques into a new generation of approaches realigned towards the NextGen vision. These approaches are driven by operational aviation constraints and key operational decision points, which are triggered as a result of high-impact aviation weather events. In support of these major changes, verification techniques are being developed to incorporate: 1) strategic traffic flow management planning decisions, 2) National Air Space (NAS) sector-specific information, and 3) relationships between flight delays and costs (lost/gain) and forecast accuracy. In addition, the RTVS is undergoing a reengineering effort that will provide users and automated decision support tools access to the integrated verification and quality assessment datasets, which address user-specific forecast evaluation. One example is the ability to create a reliability diagram for a probabilistic convective forecast along with a depiction of the associated MODE objects for hours during the convective season when dollars per flight due to delay exceed a particular threshold. This user-based integrated analysis function of RTVS will allow extensive flexibility for combining a variety of weather and nonweather information and joining that information with information that affects operational aviation decisions. This effort will result in verification of aviation forecast products with emphasis on operational significance. In addition, the technology and concepts being developed to integrate weather information for RTVS may be of use in the development of the System Wide Information Network (SWIM), the NextGen Network-Enabled Weather system, and the aviation 4-D weather database.
An overview of QART activities, with emphasis on user-based verification approaches, and RTVS re-design efforts, will be presented. Subsequent presentations will describe details from several specific user-based forecast evaluations, a user-aligned evaluation of the Forecast Icing Product (FIP) for its transition to operations, and the RTVS integrated-analysis prototype.
Session 11, Verification
Thursday, 24 January 2008, 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, 226-227
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