Monday, 21 January 2008
Numerical simulation of extreme wind gusts assocaited with a landfalling tropical cyclone
Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Historically, wind gusts associated with landfalling tropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of wind-related damage to structures. These localized very high wind speeds have their source above the surface layer, generally in the lowest 500 m, and are transferred to the surface by convective downdrafts and/or mechanically induced turbulence. The very small space and time scales of these gusts means that even the most sophisticated numerical simulations have difficulty reproducing them explicitly. Consequently, several wind gust parameterization schemes have been developed, though their application to tropical cyclones has been limited. The current study employs a mesoscale model to investigate the wind gusts associated with a severe landfalling tropical cyclone in northeastern Australia (TC Larry) using two wind gust parameterization schemes: (i) Brasseur's WGE method, and (ii) a scheme provided by the New Zealand Met Service. A quadruply nested grid with grid spacings of 27 km, 9 km, 3 km, and 1 km is used for domains 1 to 4 respectively. Very high-resolution terrain data (~ 1km) in domain 4 is necessary to examine the effects of the underlying complex terrain. Preliminary results suggest that wind gusts associated with TC Larry are at least 1.5 times the maximum sustained surface winds, with maximum speeds around 300 km h-1. Significantly higher ratios (3-5) are found in the lee of mountains. Peak gusts occur over areas of higher terrain, as well as regions of intense eye-wall convection closer to the center of the circulation. In addition to the parameterized gusts, an analysis of the surface winds in domain 4 reveals fine-scale banding of locally high wind speeds, the causes of which are still being investigated.
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