88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008)

Monday, 21 January 2008
National Hurricane Center forecast verification
Exhibit Hall B (Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL
This presentation will discuss the accuracy of National Hurricane Center official track and intensity forecasts in recent years, as well as the accuracy of the track and intensity guidance models. Emphasis will be on official accuracy and skill trends over the past 15 years, current forecast biases and distributions, and the use of consensus techniques.

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