We investigate the influence of Kelvin waves on the predictability of cyclogenesis in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific.

Similarly to MJO, Kelvin waves are notoriously difficult to predict in global models, with propagation speed strongly dependent on model characteristics such as convective parameterization or vertical resolution. While the influence of MJO on tropical weather patterns is obvious, faster moving Kelvin waves received less attention in this regard. Nevertheless observations indicate that Kelvin waves can spawn tropical cyclones in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean by creating equatorial convective maxima that split into cyclonic vortices on both sides of the equator (for example: 2006 super typhoon Ewiniar)

We examine cases of such cyclogenesis to determine to what extent the improvement of predictability of Kelvin waves can contribute to a better forecast of tropical cyclone formation.