Extended Abstract (180K)3.3
Understanding the use of forecast uncertainty information in decision making: Results from a survey
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lazo and J. Demuth
An important component of providing useful weather forecast information is understanding how people interpret uncertainty in weather forecasts and how forecast uncertainty affects people's weather-related decisions. To begin building this knowledge empirically, we incorporated several weather-related decision scenarios into a nationwide, controlled-access Internet survey with approximately 1500 respondents. Respondents were asked to use precipitation or temperature forecasts to make decisions to protect or not protect from a potential flood or frost. The protection component of the scenario involves monetary costs, and the impact component (flood or frost) involves monetary losses. For each scenario, respondents were given deterministic forecasts and forecasts that conveyed uncertainty in different ways, and they were asked what decision they would make with the different information. These scenario questions are similar to experimental economics approaches that empirically assess how individuals use information. Using an expected value framework, we examine the decisions individuals made with the different information. The results provide information about respondents' understanding of forecast uncertainty information, inferences of forecast uncertainty, and ability to use the uncertainty information in decision making. We will discuss findings from this component of the survey as well as ideas for potential follow-on work in a laboratory setting.
Session 3, Use of Forecasts and Communicating Uncertainty
Tuesday, 13 January 2009, 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Room 121A
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