Recorded presentation3.2
Weather visuals and the public: How do we help the public understand our visuals?
Gina M. Eosco, University of Oklahoma/ AMS Policy Program, Norman, OK
Visuals play an important role in explaining risk and scientific processes such as the intricacies of climate change, the risks of cancer treatments, or the uncertainties of science. These visuals do not simply appear in a newspaper or on television without thought, but often have a distinct objective or purpose given to them by their creator. The original objective of the graphic may not be achieved because viewers may misunderstand or misinterpret the graphic. Misinterpretations of risk visuals, such as hurricane track graphics, may have harmful consequences. Therefore, it is critically important to understand how scientific intent translates through visuals to evoke public understanding of science and risk assessment, a process that I call visual validity. Researchers often consider the validity of their studies asking themselves if their methodologies accurately measured what they intended to measure. Why not apply a similar process to visuals? This study looks at the concept of visual validity from the scientist's point of view using a graphic called the “cone of uncertainty,” a highly visible hurricane track graphic. Using a grounded theory approach, I conducted 19 in-depth interviews with forecasters and meteorologists from a variety of government and private sector institutions including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, and Weatherbug. Through the interviews, two potential characteristics of achieving visual validity for the cone of uncertainty emerged out of the data. First, the role of transactional communication between the designer of a visual and its intended audience appears to play a role in accurate understanding and risk assessment. Second, supplementing a visual with an explanation also appears to play a role in attaining visual validity. These findings have implications for the visual literacy process. That is, readers of complex weather visuals may need certain conditions present to understand graphics like the cone of uncertainty, or perhaps other probabilistic weather and climate graphics. These conditions may affect an individual's ability to understand complex science and make accurate risk assessments. These conditions, as well as their realistic implementation, will be discussed.
Session 3, Use of Forecasts and Communicating Uncertainty
Tuesday, 13 January 2009, 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Room 121A
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