Weather conditions can seriously impact aircraft operations, which places great importance on how weather-related information is collected, managed, disseminated, and utilized in the air traffic management decision-making process. The primary role of weather information is to provide guidance where and when aircraft may fly safely. Weather forecasts have to be translated into information that is directly relevant to the aviation users and service providers. The uncertainty of weather forecasts has to be accounted for as well in the risk assessment and decision-making process. Moreover, the expected increase in air traffic flow requires largely automated, machine-to-machine communicating decision-making tools to effectively assist the human managing the air space.

Weather forecasting increasingly relies on ensemble-based approaches to create probabilistic predictions. This presentation will show a new concept of creating probabilistic scenario forecasts that are tailored from an aviation perspective. The assessment of the value of such ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts will include an initial exploration based on NASA's Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET). Moreover, the ensemble-based results will be contrasted to other approaches. The focus is primarily on convective storms, however, the new concept is applicable to other aviation weather hazards as well.