Some Challenges and Successes Associated with using Storm-Scale Modeling at a NWS Forecast Office

Numerical Weather Prediction has evolved substantially over the past decade. Recent improvements to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)'s Global Forecast System have removed grid-scale convection problems, but mesoscale models such as the NCEP's North American Mesoscale model continue to struggle with the timing, initiation, intensity, evolution, propagation, longevity and placement of moist convection. In most cases, models run with grid spacings between 10 and 15 km effectively release convective available potential energy via their convective parameterizations, but are far from realistic or practical for storm-scale modeling.

Forecasters at the NWS Corpus Christi Weather Forecast Office have tried applying the output from several high resolution models to short-term weather prediction. This presentation will share the results, challenges and successes associated with using storm-scale modeling in operations, and present the advantages for explicitly predicting moist convection over convective parameterization. Given these developments, it has become critical for forecasters to be trained on the use of convection-allowing models which often provide improved precipitation forecasts and detailed convective-scale information.