24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


Short Course Registration

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


WeatherFest

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


Welcome Reception Honoring Newly Elected Fellows
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center)

Monday, 24 January 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Registration continues through January 27

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Panel Discussion
Communicating Weather and Climate
Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; the IMPACTS: Weather 2010; and the 11th Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate )
Moderator: Robert T. Ryan, NBC4 TV
Panelists: Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune; Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre; Doyle Rice, USA Today; Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council
  9:00 AM
Panelist: Thomas E. Skilling
Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune, Chicago, IL

  9:10 AM
Panelist: Claire Martin
Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada

  9:20 AM
Panelist: Doyle Rice
Doyle Rice, USA Today, Washington, DC

  9:30 AM
Panelist: Martin Storksdieck
Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council, Washington, DC

Recording files available
Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate
Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; the IMPACTS: Weather 2010; the Events; and the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International )

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 1A
Decision Support Meteorology I
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS
  11:00 AM
1A.1
NWS Services Roadmap for the Decade Ahead
Andrew Stern, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Green, J. Tuell, E. Jacks, and D. Caldwell
  11:15 AM
1A.2
Real-time estimation of population exposure to weather hazards
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK ; and K. L. Manross, K. L. Ortega, and B. P. Walawender
  11:30 AM
1A.3
The first steps at providing impact based decision support services (IDSS) in Alaska
Don Moore, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK; and C. Scott, J. Osiensky, G. Hufford, G. Petrescu, and A. Fish
  11:45 AM
1A.4
Statistical upscaling of numerical weather predictions to enable coupled modelling of local weather impacts
Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY; and H. Li, A. P. Praino, and A. Praino
Recording files available
Session 1B
Forecasting Skill Improvement I
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
CoChair: Levi Thatcher, University of Utah
  11:00 AM
1B.1
  11:15 AM
1B.2
  11:30 AM
1B.3
  11:45 AM
1B.4
Gene-expression programming—a new tool for creating NWP ensemble averages and probability forecasts
Atoossa Bakhshaii, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull
Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Increasing Public Awareness of Weather Forecasts I
Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Symposium on Education; and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: David R. Smith, United States Naval Academy; Carolyn Reynolds, NRL

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 2A
Decision/Education Support II
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS
  1:30 PM
2A.1
New ensemble-based products for tropical cyclones
Thomas M. Hamill, ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and B. Brown, M. DeMaria, Z. Toth, R. L. Gall, and E. Rappaport
  2:00 PM
2A.3
Tracking Outflows from Severe Thunderstorms Using NSF EarthScope USArray Pressure Sensors
Jonathan E. Tytell, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Eakins and F. Vernon
  2:15 PM
2A.4
Effective use of NWP in the forecast process: A new COMET distance learning course
William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt and G. Byrd
Recording files available
Session 2B
Forecast Skill Improvement II
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL
  1:30 PM
2B.1
  1:45 PM
2B.2
Kalman filter and analog schemes to postprocess numerical weather predictions
Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Nipen, Y. Liu, G. Roux, R. B. Stull, T. T. Warner, and P. Childs
  2:00 PM
2B.3
The Impact of Real-Time Observations on the WRF Model Surface Forecasts
Elena Novakovskaia, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and Z. Guo and C. Sloop

  2:15 PM
2B.4
Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere I
Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Ross N. Hoffman, AER
  1:30 PM
J5.1
The Canadian regional data assimilation and forecasting system
Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and A. Patoine, E. Lapalme, N. Benbouta, P. Vaillancourt, M. Tanguay, S. Macpherson, M. Lajoie, M. Desgagne, and V. Lee

  1:45 PM
J5.2
Progress in the GEM-NEMO coupled data assimilation and prediction system
Jean-Marc Bélanger, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and G. Smith, F. Roy, H. Ritchie, and S. Skachko
  2:00 PM
J5.3
Regional NWP: why bother?
Dale Barker, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Macpherson, C. Jones, and R. Dumelow
  2:15 PM
J5.4
Development of GRAPES Hourly Assimilation System
Chen Zi-tong, CMA, Guangzhou, China

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
Increasing Public Awareness of Weather Forecasts II
Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Symposium on Education; and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Poster Session 1
Decision Support, Forecast Verification and Downscaling
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
 
87
Storm Prediction Information for Decision Making at Sea
Lizzie S. R. Froude, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

 
90
Verification of simulated radar reflectivity and echo-top forecast at NCEP
Binbin Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, S. Liu, and G. Dimego
Manuscript (692.5 kB)

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

 
91
A new paradigm for occluded fronts and the occlusion process
David M. Schultz, Universities of Helsinki and Manchester/Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and G. Vaughan

Poster PDF (731.8 kB)

 
92
COMET Training on the Use of High-Resolution Models
Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Byrd
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

 
93
Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification statistics visualization
Paul Oldenburg, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway and T. Jensen

Poster PDF (931.3 kB)

 
94
An objective technique for evaluating forecast radar reflectivity from an NWP model
Edward Colón, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and I.M. Systems Group, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Zhou, B. S. Ferrier, S. Liu, M. Pyle, and G. DiMego

 
95
Spatial forecast verification: image warping
E. Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Lindström, F. Lindgren, L. Chen, M. DePersio, G. Do, K. Ellertson, Y. Jin, C. Xia, R. L. Smith, and E. L. Kang

 
98
Spatial verification of convective systems during the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. J. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and R. S. Schneider
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

 
99
Geospatial verification of experimental severe weather warnings
Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/MDL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith, K. L. Ortega, and S. Stough

Poster PDF (216.2 kB)

 
100
Regional downscaling of NCEP CFS seasonal forecasts by NCEP RSM
Yunfei Zhang, NOAA/NWS/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang

 
101
Development of a global data server using downscaling techniques to produce high-resolution, long-range, hourly forecast data
Holly C. Hassenzahl, Weather Central, LP, Madison, WI; and B. A. Wilt, C. Johnson, R. Runnheim, R. Arb, A. Rice, M. Thomas, B. J. Good, D. Graham, and N. R. Keene

Poster PDF (624.6 kB)

 
102
Using MODE with Cloudsat Data
Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Manuscript (342.8 kB)

 
104
Exploring the use of stability fields from a three dimensional objective analysis scheme in the NCAR AutoNowcaster
Eric J. Nelson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Roberts, A. R. S. Anderson, D. L. Megenhardt, and P. D. Bothwell

 
105
A case study of Hurricane Felix (2007) rapid intensification
Ian C. Colon-Pagan, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Davis and G. Holland

 
106
Relationships between heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula and remote tropical cyclones
Kun-Young Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and T. Y. Lee

Poster PDF (312.1 kB)

 
107
Cool-season intermittent precipitation cells in the Pacific Northwest
Sandra E. Yuter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. M. Hall, J. G. Cunningham, N. R. Hardin, and B. A. Colle

 
108
Observed vertical structure of snow storms in Steamboat Springs, CO: Orographic enhancement in a high altitude environment
Nathan R. Hardin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter and K. Friedrich

 
109
 
110
Observations of Weather Phenomena by NSF EarthScope USArray Seismic and Pressure Sensors
Frank L. Vernon, University of California , La Jolla, CA; and J. Eakins, J. E. Tytell, B. Busby, and B. Woodward
Manuscript (2.6 MB)

Poster PDF (27.2 MB)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Communicating with Technology (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the 20th Symposium on Education )
Chair: Rajul Pandya, UCAR
  4:00 PM
J1.1
Integrating air quality tools with the Wildland Fire Decision Support System
Narasimhan Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and M. Rorig, T. Strand, T. J. Brown, S. Raffuse, P. Lahm, and T. Zimmerman

  4:15 PM
J1.2
Using YouTube Videos to Communicate Science
Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and T. Nakamura and M. Dunlap
  4:30 PM
J1.3
Commuicating Climate Science fo the General Public
Andrew Freedman, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ; and H. Cullen and M. McGuirk
  4:45 PM
J1.4
Utility of 2D/3D visualization methods in analyzing and disseminating flood information
Jamie L. Dyer, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and P. Amburn, D. Reed, and D. Welch
 
J1.5
  5:00 PM
J1.5A
Recording files available
Session 3B
Predictability
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: James D. Doyle, NRL
  4:00 PM
3B.1
On the predictability of cyclogenesis and low-land snow in the Pacific Northwest
Dale Durran, University of Wasington, Seattle, WA; and P. A. Reinecke
  4:15 PM
3B.2
  4:30 PM
3B.3
  4:45 PM
3B.4
  5:00 PM
3B.5
Predictability and Dynamics of a squall-line and bow-echo event during BAMEX
Fuqing Zhang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Melhauser
  5:15 PM
3B.6
Microphysical evolution within winter snow storms over Long Island, NY
David A. Stark, NOAA-National Weather Service, Upton, NY; and B. A. Colle and S. E. Yuter
Recording files available
Joint Session 9
Pacific Northwest Weather including results from the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics (Co-Sponsored by the AMS Committee on Mountain Meteorology)
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )
Chairs: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS; H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL
  4:00 PM
J9.1A
  4:15 PM
J9.2
Realtime high-resolution mesoscale modeling for the Vancouver Olympics
Aijun Deng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. Stauffer, G. Hunter, J. Zielonka, J. Toffler, E. Sorbo, I. Sykes, and D. Henn
  4:30 PM
J9.3
Forecasting sun vs. shade in complex terrain for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games
Rosie Howard, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull
  4:45 PM
J9.4
Dual-polarized radar observations of precipitation during SNOW-V10
H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, T. J. Schuur, and D. E. Forsyth
  5:00 PM
J9.5
The west coast thermal trough: structure, evolution and prediction
Matthew C. Brewer, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass
  5:15 PM
J9.6
Wintertime extreme precipitation events and flooding along the Pacific Northwest coast
Michael Warner, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass and E. Salathé

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere II
Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD; Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
  4:00 PM
J7.1
The recent progresses of satellite data assimilation in GRAPES
Hua Zhang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
  4:15 PM
J7.2
Optimization of In-situ Aircraft Observations for Various Assimilation Techniques
Neil A. Jacobs, AirDat LLC, Morrisville, NC; and F. Gao, P. Childs, X. Zhang, X. Y. Huang, X. Zhang, M. Croke, and Y. Liu
  4:30 PM
J7.3
Recent upgrades to and ongoing challenges for the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. F. V. De Pondeca
  4:45 PM
J7.4
Assimilation of infrared Meteosat data into high-resolution NWP and nowcasting models
Robert Nigel Tubbs, Met Office, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom
  5:00 PM
J7.5
Ensemble data assimilation across a range of scales and phenomena with WRF/DART
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Anderson, S. M. Cavallo, D. Dowell, S. Y. Ha, G. Romine, and R. Torn
  5:15 PM
J7.6
Local ensemble transform Kalman filter experiments with the WRF model
Masaru Kunii, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, College Park, MD; and T. Miyoshi

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Reception and Exhibits Opening

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate Art Show

Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 4A
Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty I: Large-scale systems
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zoltan Toth, NOAA/ESRL/GSD
  8:30 AM
4A.1
Prediction of Extratropical Cyclones by TIGGE Ensemble Prediction Systems
Lizzie S. R. Froude, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
 
4A.2
  9:00 AM
4A.3
Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Torn
  9:15 AM
4A.4
Results from testing of EnKF and an EnKF-Var hybrid using the GFS during the 2010 hurricane season
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker, S. G. Benjamin, M. Fiorino, and D. T. Kleist
  9:30 AM
4A.5
Forecast products for hurricane prediction: deterministic and ensemble-based
Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and F. Prates and D. Richardson
Recording files available
Session 4B
New Forecasting Systems and Capabilities
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
  8:30 AM
4B.1
Overview of Chinese New Generation NWP System GRAPES
Jishan Xue, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
  8:45 AM
4B.2
Development of a new global forecast system in CMA
Xueshun Shen, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
  9:00 AM
4B.3
Experiences with a 1.5km version of the Met Office Unified Model for short range forecasting
Humphrey W. Lean, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and F. J. Bornemann, Y. Tang, and E. Carter
  9:15 AM
4B.4
Transitioning research to operations: Implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for developing countries
Brent L. Shaw, Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and R. L. Carpenter, Jr., P. L. Spencer, Z. M. DuFran, J. W. Conway, and M. D. Eilts

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

9:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Poster Session 2
Ensembles and Probabilistic Forecasting
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
 
111
The value of ensembles and statistical post-processing for ship routing guidance
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Etro, A. Etro, J. Cook, I. Nutall, and S. Hall

 
112
Covarying TC-forced wind speed/wave height probabilities
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. R. Sampson, P. A. Wittmann, M. DeMaria, and J. Knaff

 
113
Ensemble based probabilistic forecast and its verification
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

 
114
Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, E. Serra, D. Hodyss, C. R. Sampson, M. Flatau, and J. A. Ridout

 
115
Ensemble Hurricane forecasts from a suite of Mesoscale models
Mrinal K. Biswas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

 
116
What is a reasonable ensemble size for operational ensemble forecast?
Juhui Ma, NCEP/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu
Manuscript (595.3 kB)

 
118
Ensemble prediction system development for hydrometeorological testbed (HMT) application
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, H. Yuan, L. S. Wharton, Z. Toth, T. Schneider, A. White, and F. M. Ralph

 
119
What are the added values of LAMEPS?
Yong Wang, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna, Austria
Manuscript (772.5 kB)

 
120
Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

 
121
NAEFS statistical down-scaling method applications to Alaska
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

 
122
Evaluating probabilistic precipitation forecasts generated by deterministic convection-allowing NWP models
Jill D. Hardy, NSF, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Novak, J. J. Gourley, and M. E. Pyle

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

 
125
In-line processing of ensemble distributions in a simple model
Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Hansen and C. A. Reynolds

 
126
Optimization of Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, S. Moorthi, R. Wobus, J. Ma, and W. Yang

 
Poster 127 has been moved. New paper number is 6A.3A.

 
129
Down-Selection of NWP Ensemble Configurations
Jared Lee, Penn State University, State College, PA; and W. C. Kolczynski Jr., T. C. McCandless, S. E. Haupt, D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and K. J. Schmehl
Manuscript (1015.8 kB)

 
132
ensembleBMA: An R package for probabilistic weather forecasting
Chris Fraley, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, and M. Sloughter
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

 
133
Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
William Kleiber, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting

 
134
Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Uncertainty on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and rainfall
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, T. Holt, and L. O'neill

 
135
Experimental Probabalistic Forecast Information Provided by NWS WFOs
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and S. A. Amburn


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 5A
Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty II: Large-scale Systems
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Justin McLay, NRL
  11:00 AM
5A.1
The development of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Hou, M. Wei, R. Wobus, S. Moorthi, and J. Ma
  11:15 AM
5A.2
Optimizing ensemble forecasts by EnKF in NCEP operational environment
Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, D. Kleist, J. Derber, S. J. Lord, and J. Whitaker

  11:30 AM
5A.3
  11:45 AM
5A.4
Verification of winds and seas forecasts from the FNMOC ensemble forecast system
Michael Sestak, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and S. Klotz, J. A. Hansen, P. M. Pauley, and P. A. Wittmann
Recording files available
Session 5B
Forecast Center Overviews I
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL
  11:00 AM
5B.1
Recent progress in analysis and prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (Invited Speaker)
Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. M. Lapenta, J. Ward, G. DiMego, H. L. Tolman, J. C. Derber, Y. Zhu, M. Ek, H. L. Pan, and M. Iredell
Recording files available
Joint Session 10
Risk Communication of Hurricanes
Location: 618-620 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )
Cochairs: Julie L. Demuth, NCAR; Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center
  11:00 AM
J10.1
Risk Communication Across Cultures
Vankita Brown, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
  11:15 AM
J10.2
Dynamics of hurricane risk perception
Holly Marlatt, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. W. Trumbo, L. Peek, M. Lueck, E. Gruntfest, B. McNoldy, and W. Schubert
  11:30 AM
J10.3
Improving storm surge risk communication
Betty Hearn Morrow, SocResearch, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome

  11:45 AM
J10.4
Assessing the Publics' Need For Storm Surge Warning Information
Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. H. Morrow, J. R. Rhome, and J. Feyen

Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Panel Discussion 2
Communicating with Each Other: The Challenges and Rewards of Expanding Atmospheric Science’s Professional Partners(Themed Joint Session)
Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth History Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )
Panelists: Ankur R. Desai, Univ. of Wisconsin; Robert Henson, UCAR; Eve Gruntfest, Univ. of Oklahoma; Roger D. Turner, Univ. of Pennsylvania
  1:30 PM
JPD2.1
Communicating with Each Other: The Challenges and Rewards of Expanding Atmospheric Science’s Professional Partners
Ankur R. Desai, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Henson, E. Gruntfest, and R. D. Turner
  2:00 PM
Recording files available
Session 6A
Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty III: Post Processing
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Craig H. Bishop, NRL
  1:30 PM
6A.1
Australian approaches to probabilistic precipitation forecasting
Michael Foley, Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin, Australia; and S. Cooper, P. Riley, E. Morgan, and J. Bally
  1:45 PM
6A.2
Simple- and modified-poor man's QPF ensembles, and a neural network approach
Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. M. Krasnopolsky
Manuscript (943.6 kB)

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

 
6A.3
  2:00 PM
6A.3A
Impact of linear variance calibration on ensemble wind variance in atmospheric transport and dispersion forecasts
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, R. I. Sykes, R. Long, and A. Deng
  2:15 PM
6A.3
Ensemble Postprocessing for Weather Trajectories
Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany

  2:30 PM
6A.4
Probabilistic visibility forecasting using Bayesian model averaging
Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. M. Chmielecki
  2:45 PM
6A.5
Impact of Spatial Bias Correction and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging Over the Northeast United States
Michael J. Erickson, SUNY/Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. Pollina, and J. J. Charney
Recording files available
Session 6B
Forecast Center Overviews II
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL
  2:00 PM
6B.2
  2:30 PM
6B.3
National unified operational prediction capability: progress and national research initiatives
Fred Toepfer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Springs, MD; and D. McCarran and S. A. Sandgathe

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 11
Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere III
Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: Patricia M. Pauley, NRL; Richard E. Peterson, Texas Tech University
  1:30 PM
J11.1
  2:00 PM
J11.3
Diagnostic analysis of short-term hurricane vortex evolution in high-resolution ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation
Tomislava Vukicevic, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, K. Sellwood, P. Reasor, S. Gopalakrishnan, L. Bucci, S. Aberson, and F. Marks
  2:15 PM
J11.4
NOAA/AOML/HRD's Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS): A comparative analysis of a Hurricane Paloma (2008) case using simulated vs. real vortex-scale aircraft observations
Altug Aksoy, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Lorsolo, T. Vukicevic, K. Sellwood, P. Reasor, and S. D. Aberson
  2:30 PM
J11.5
NOAA/AOML/HRD's Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS), results of semi-operational implementation during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season
Kathryn Sellwood, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, T. Vukicevic, S. Aberson, and S. Lorsolo
  3:00 PM
J11.7
Data Assimilation Experiments of an Antarctic Cyclone Using WRF 4DVAR
Qingnong Xiao, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL; and K. Chu

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: 601 (Washington State Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 12
Assimilation of observations into models: Advanced methods
Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: Chris Snyder, NCAR; Timothy L. Miller, NASA/MSFC
  3:30 PM
J12.1
TOWARD THE ASSIMILATION OF IMAGES
Francois-Xavier Le Dimet, INRIA, Grenoble, France
  3:45 PM
J12.2
On the Gaussian approach to adaptive covariance inflation
Takemasa Miyoshi, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
  4:00 PM
J12.3
  4:15 PM
J12.4
A kernel-density based ensemble filter applicable to high-dimensional systems
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA / ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker
  4:30 PM
J12.5
  4:45 PM
J12.6
Bias correction using analysis increments within an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation
Ji-Sun Kang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay and T. Miyoshi
  5:00 PM
J12.7
Spectral and morphing ensemble Kalman filters
Jan Mandel, University of Colorado, Denver, CO; and J. D. Beezley and L. Cobb
Manuscript (2.9 MB)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 7
Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty IV: Short-range Ensemble Forecasting
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
  3:30 PM
7.1
Challenges to ensemble system design for Warn-on-Forecast
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and D. M. Wheatley
  3:45 PM
7.2
Evaluation of convection-allowing ensemble forecasts of extreme rainfall associated with a mesoscale vortex
Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. J. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong
  4:00 PM
7.3
The performance of high-resolution WRF ensemble QPF during heavy winter precipitation events in California
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, I. Jankov, H. Yuan, J. H. Gotway, and P. Oldenburg
  4:15 PM
7.4
NCAR ensemble RTFDDA: real-time operational forecasting applications and new data assimilation developments
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, T. Betancourt, J. Knievel, B. Mahoney, J. Pace, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, N. A. Jacobs, P. Childs, and K. Parks
  4:45 PM
7.6
NCEP activities in very-short range and high resolution ensemble prediction
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Zhou, M. Pyle, D. Jovic, G. DiMego, and G. Manikin
  5:00 PM
7.7
NCEP model guidance for the 2009–0 mid-Atlantic snowfest
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
  5:15 PM
7.8
The global ensemble prediction system(GEPS) and regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) at CMA and its application in monsoon season
Jing Chen, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and H. Tian, G. Deng, X. Li, J. Gong, Y. Li, X. Wang, and J. Hu
Recording files available
Joint Session 20
Improving communications between the research and operational communities, including HFIP
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges )
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
  3:30 PM
J20.1
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Accomplishments, Lessons Learned, and Challenges
Robert L. Gall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, F. Marks, and E. Rappaport
  3:45 PM
J20.2
The HFIP high resolution hurricane forecast test
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, L. Carson, T. L. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. Wolff, and H. Yuan
  4:00 PM
J20.3
Application of COAMPS-TC for HFIP
James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, S. Chen, J. Cummings, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. R. Moskaitis, M. Peng, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang
  4:15 PM
J20.4
  4:45 PM
J20.6
  5:00 PM
J20.7
Advancing the national ensemble prediction system capability
Anthony Eckel, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Hilderbrand
  5:15 PM
J20.8
Collaborative efforts by the atmospheric research and operations communities for improving a thunderstorm nowcasting system
Amanda R. S. Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Roberts, M. R. Volkmer, and D. W. Sharp

Wednesday, 26 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Risk Communication of Weather and Climate Information (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )
Cochairs: Nate Johnson, WRAL-TV; John Sokich, NOAA/NWS
  8:30 AM
J3.1
The Communication of Risk: At the Crossroads of Science, Economics, and Communications
Paul Hettler, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and S. A. Jasko and C. M. Kauffman
  8:45 AM
J3.2
Communicating weather, climate and catastrophe risk and preparedness
Jeanne Salvatore, Insurance Information Institute, New York, NY
  9:15 AM
J3.4
Visualization of slow-developing hazards: Influencing perceptions and behaviors to facilitate adaptation planning
Tim G. Frazier, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and F. Murtinho, G. Broad, D. Campbell, P. Howe, and H. Reyes Hernandez

  9:30 AM
J3.5
How do people perceive and respond to flash flood risk and warnings?
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lazo, K. Mulder, J. L. Demuth, and A. Bostrom
  9:45 AM
J3.6
Now what do people know about global climate change? A mental models approach
Ann Bostrom, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. W. Reynolds and R. Hudson
Recording files available
Session 8A
Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty V: Verification and Validation
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC
  8:30 AM
8A.1
  8:45 AM
8A.2
SLOSH model verification: a GIS-based approach
Nicole C. Grams, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
  9:00 AM
8A.3
The DTC Ensemble Testbed: A New Testing and Evaluation Facility for Mesoscale Ensembles
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, I. Jankov, T. L. Jensen, H. Yuan, E. I. Tollerud, L. S. Wharton, P. T. McCaslin, B. Kuo, L. Nance, and S. E. Koch
  9:15 AM
8A.4
A method for validating convection-permitting models using an automated convective-cell tracking algorithm
Simon Caine, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and T. P. Lane, P. T. May, J. O. Pinto, C. Jakob, M. J. Manton, and S. T. Siems
  9:30 AM
8A.5
Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Storm Forecasts using an Object-Based Approach
Huaqing Cai, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, J. O. Pinto, B. G. Brown, and P. He
  9:45 AM
8A.6
Recording files available
Session 8B
Numerical Modeling I: Numerics and Dynamics
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Dale R. Durran, University of Washington
  8:30 AM
8B.1
Incremental implementation of model dynamics for NCEP GFS
Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
  8:45 AM
8B.2
Multiscale Eulerian member of NCEP's National Environmental Modeling System
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Vasic
  9:00 AM
8B.3
Introduction of GRAPES dynamic core
Dehui Chen Sr., Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and J. Xue Sr. and X. Shen Sr.
  9:15 AM
8B.4
A GPU implementation of the WRF-ARW dynamical core
Thomas N. Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull
  9:30 AM
8B.5A
A flux-form version of the Conservative Semi-Lagrangian Multi-tracer transport scheme (CSLAM) on the cubed sphere grid
Lucas M. Harris, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and P. H. Lauritzen and R. Mittal

  10:00 AM
8B.6

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Coffee Break

Meet the President

10:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 9A
NOAA HWT Spring Experiment
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Gail Hartfield, NOAA/NWS
  10:30 AM
9A.1
An overview of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring forecasting experiment
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, C. W. Siewert, R. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, C. B. Entwistle, T. L. Jensen, R. Schneider, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio
  10:45 AM
9A.2
Realtime Convection-Permitting Ensemble and Convection-Resolving Deterministic Forecasts of CAPS for the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, A. Clark, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, J. Du, T. Jensen, and Y. H. Kuo
  11:15 AM
9A.4
The quantitative precipitation forecasting component of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Faye E. Barthold, NOAA/NWS and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and M. J. Bodner, D. R. Novak, R. Bann, R. Oravec, B. Sullivan, A. R. Dean, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, R. A. Sobash, A. J. Clark, F. Kong, S. J. Weiss, and M. Xue
  11:30 AM
9A.5
The Aviation Weather Forecasting Component of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Jason J. Levit, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and B. Entwistle, S. J. Weiss, S. P. Burback, K. T. Burtis, K. S. Eagle-Brogan, and S. Silberberg
  11:45 AM
9A.6
The Developmental Testbed Center Objective Evaluation Performed During the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, P. T. Marsh, F. E. Barthold, J. J. Levit, F. Kong, A. J. Clark, B. G. Brown, D. R. Novak, J. S. Kain, R. S. Schneider, and M. C. Coniglio
Recording files available
Session 9B
Numerical Modeling II: Surface and Boundary Layer Modeling
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jim Steenburgh, University of Utah
  10:30 AM
9B.1
Improving the representation of surface exchanges between the urban canopy and the surface layer in a mesoscale atmospheric model
Syed Zahid Husain, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Bélair, S. Leroyer, N. Gauthier, M. Abrahamowicz, and J. Mailhot
  10:45 AM
9B.2
Influence of land surface models on predictions of the vertical structure of stable boundary layers in AT&D applications
David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and B. P. Reen, B. Gaudet, and N. L. Seaman
  11:15 AM
9B.4
Evaluation of a real-time analysis of the boundary layer height
Caterina M. Tassone, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Tsidulko, Y. Zhu, J. T. Mcqueen, and G. DiMego
  11:30 AM
9B.5
Simulating atmospheric boundary layer transition during a winter storm event with the WRF model
Wanli Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, J. A. Grim, F. Vandenberghe, A. Bourgeois, J. C. Knievel, T. Warner, M. Padovani, G. Luft, and K. Fling

  11:45 AM
9B.6

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 13
Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere IV
Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
  10:30 AM
J13.1
  10:45 AM
J13.2
Impacts of the STMAS cycling data assimilation system on improving severe weather forecasting
Huiling Yuan, Nanjing University, and NOAA/ESRL, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Y. Xie, S. Albers, and I. Jankov

  11:15 AM
J13.4
Comparison of RTMA and ensemble Kalman filter surface analyses
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. F. Mass, P. Regulski, B. Colman, and L. K. Cook
  11:30 AM
J13.5
  11:45 AM
J13.6
Downscaling by Assimilating NWP fields into a CFD Model
Sue Ellen Haupt, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and F. J. Zajaczkowski and K. J. Schmehl

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 10B
Numerical Modeling III: Precipitation Modeling and Verification
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
  1:30 PM
10B.1
Quantitative precipitation forecast verification comparison between the Global Forecast System and North American Mesoscale operational models
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Brown, J. H. Gotway, M. Harrold, Z. Trabold, L. Nance, and P. Oldenburg
  1:45 PM
10B.2
  2:00 PM
10B.3
A comparison of three high-resolution dynamical downscaling methods to examine extreme precipitation in future climate regimes
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, G. M. Lackmann, and J. Barsugli
  2:15 PM
10B.4
The utility of Ensemble Kalman Filter-based modeling for short-term forecasts of banded snow
Astrid Suarez, National Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves, D. M. Wheatley, and M. C. Coniglio
Recording files available
Joint Session 14
Assimilation of observations into models: Ocean and other applications
Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: George R. Halliwell Jr., NOAA/AOML
  1:45 PM
J14.2
Assimilating satellite and in situ data into a Chesapeake Bay model using the LETKF
Matthew J. Hoffman, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY; and T. Miyoshi, T. W. N. Haine, and D. Waugh
  2:00 PM
J14.3
Ensemble data assimilation for wind energy applications
Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Descombes, B. Kosovic, M. D. Simpson, V. Bulaevskaya, M. Alai, and L. G. Glascoe
  2:15 PM
J14.4
Recording files available
Joint Session 19
High Resolution Simulations, and Applications for Aviation
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )
Chair: Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC
  1:30 PM
J19.1
Verification of diurnal cycle characteristics in the CAPS 2010 Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast System
Adam J. Clark, NOAA/NSSL/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, F. Kong, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, R. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio

  1:45 PM
J19.2
Simulation of MCS anvil cloud bands associated with flight-level turbulence
S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and R. Fovell
  2:00 PM
J19.4
  2:15 PM
J19.3
Experimental LAMP 2-h convection guidance on a 20-km grid
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky and P. E. Shafer

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Poster Session 3
Forecast System Development and Applications
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
 
438
Of weather prediction without models II
M. Jeremie Lafitte (Levitas), WMN Predictions, Tverya, Israel

 
440
Human improvement to NWP at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill, C. Bailey, M. Eckert, D. Petersen, R. Rausch, and M. Schichtel
Manuscript (402.9 kB)

 
441
An overview of NRL's atmospheric global modeling and research
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau, J. Hansen, T. F. Hogan, Y. J. Kim, R. H. Langland, M. Liu, J. McLay, J. R. Moskaitis, M. Peng, J. A. Ridout, K. C. Viner, T. R. Whitcomb, and E. Serra

 
443
Evaluation of retrospective forecasts from 2010 HFIP Stream 1.5 candidates
Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, B. G. Brown, K. Crosby, M. Harrold, T. L. Jensen, and P. A. Kucera

 
444
Community Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) work at the Developmental Testbed Center
Shaowu Bao, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, C. W. Harrop, D. Stark, and L. Carson
Manuscript (53.2 kB)

 
445
Diagnosis of operational model track forecast error for Hurricane Ike (2008)
Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar

Poster PDF (19.6 MB)

 
446
Development of GRAPES_Meso system and its performance
Jian Sun, Center for Numerical Weather Prediction/CMA, Beijing, China; and X. Shen, D. Chen, and J. Xue

 
447
On the improvement of cloud radiation in GRAPES global model and its forecast impact
Qiying Chen, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and X. Z. Liang

 
448
Comparison experiments between GRAPES_Meso and WRF
LianTang Deng, China Meterological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. Su Sr. and D. Chen Sr.

 
449
Moistening and heating effects of convection simulated in the JMA global NWP model
Takuya Komori, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

 
450
Validation of the 10-meter Winds from WRF Mesoscale Forecast over Puerto Rico
Gian A. Villamil, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR; and A. F. Adames, I. Del Valle, A. Marrero, D. Pérez-Betancourt, R. Rios, P. Sanchez, and L. F. Bejarano

 
452
Aviation applications of a new generation of mesoscale numerical weather prediction system of the Hong Kong Observatory
W.K. Wong, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and P. W. Chan and I. Ng
Manuscript (3.4 MB)

 
453
Verification of NWP turbulence intensity guidance using eddy dissipation rate from aircraft data
W.K. Wong, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and P. W. Chan and C. M. Li
Manuscript (1.4 MB)

 
454
Demonstrating the operational value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved profiles in the pre-convective environment
Danielle M. Kozlowski, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. T. Zavodsky and G. J. Jedlovec
Manuscript (824.8 kB)

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

 
455
Forecasting lake-effect precipitation in the Great Lakes region using NASA enhanced satellite data
Michelle L. Cipullo, North Carolina State University, Salisbury, NC; and A. L. Molthan, J. L. Case, and G. J. Jedlovec
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

 
456
Deep convection initiation in the WRF model
Elizabeth A. Rockwell, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud

 
457
CAPS Multi-Model Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast for the NOAA HWT 2010 Spring Experiment
Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, X. Wang, J. Gao, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

 
458
The severe thunderstorm forecasting component of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring experiment
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, C. W. Siewert, R. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, R. S. Schneider, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio

 
459
Recent enhancements to real-time probabilistic thunderstorm guidance products from a time-lagged ensemble of High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecasts
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Koch, S. S. Weygandt, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, and E. P. James

 
461
Addressing convective-scale forecast challenges with the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, and J. M. Brown

 
464
Downslope Wind Forecasts in a Mountainous Region: Assessing Uncertainty in High-Resolution Modeling over the Las Vegas Forecast Zone
Andre Pattantyus, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. Chiao, S. Czyzyk, and M. Staudenmaier
Manuscript (582.5 kB)

Poster PDF (312.5 kB)


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 11A
Operational Weather Forecasting I: High Impact Weather
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Lisa Schmit, NOAA/NWS
  4:00 PM
11A.1
Synoptic-scale environments and dynamical mechanisms associated with predecessor rain events ahead of tropical cyclones
Benjamin J. Moore, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO; and L. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. L. Jurewicz Sr.
  4:15 PM
11A.2
Advances in Forecasting Monsoonal Upper Tropospheric Lows: Potential Vorticity Disturbances
Erik S. Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR; and L. Bosart, S. R. Sukup, T. J. Melino, R. H. Johnson, and Z. Finch
  4:30 PM
11A.3
Potential vorticity disturbances as a trigger of southwest U.S. severe weather
Lance Bosart, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and T. J. Melino, S. R. Sukup, E. S. Pytlak, J. E. Matusiak, S. J. Weiss, J. Racy, and R. S. Schneider
  4:45 PM
11A.4
A climatological analysis of deep convection interactions with the Lake Erie marine boundary layer
Thomas E. Workoff, Systems Research Group, Inc. and NOAA/NCEP/WPC, College Park, MD; and D. A. R. Kristovich, N. F. Laird, R. LaPlante, and D. Leins
  5:00 PM
11A.5
Convective storm evolution and frequency around coastal southern New England
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. Murray
  5:15 PM
11A.6
Relationship between organized convective structures and severe weather type over the northeast U.S
Kelly Lombardo, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle
Recording files available
Session 11B
Numerical Modeling IV: High Resolution Modeling
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: William M. Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
  4:15 PM
11B.2
  4:30 PM
11B.3
Relationships between Sounding-Derived Parameters and Simulated Convective Storm Surface Outflows
Cody Kirkpatrick, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and E. W. McCaul Jr.
  5:00 PM
11B.5
  5:15 PM
11B.6
Initial condition and forecast uncertainty for the 24 December 2009 blizzard
Kenneth Dixon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. D. Reeves, D. M. Wheatley, and M. C. Coniglio

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 15
Assimilation of observations into models: Use of observations
Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR; Dale Barker, Met Office
  4:00 PM
J15.1
AIRS near-surface atmospheric CO2 for modeling, transports and assimilation
Moustafa Chahine, NASA/JPL, Pasadena, CA; and E. Olsen, L. Chen, T. Pagano, X. Jiang, and Y. Yung

  4:15 PM
J15.2
  4:30 PM
J15.3
Data-denial and adjoint-based forecast impact experiments during T-PARC/TCS-08
Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, P. Pauley, C. Velden, and H. Berger

  4:45 PM
J15.4
  5:00 PM
J15.5
A retrieval strategy for interactive ensemble data assimilation
Ross N. Hoffman, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. Eluszkiewicz, S. J. Greybush, M. J. Hoffman, E. Kalnay, T. Nehrkorn, and R. J. Wilson
  5:15 PM
J15.6
  5:30 PM
J15.7
Dynamical Adjustment of Clouds in WRF based on GOES-Derived Clouds
Arastoo Pour Biazar, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. T. McNider, K. Doty, and Y. H. Park

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


91st AMS Awards Banquet
Location: 6ABCD (Washington State Convention Center)

Thursday, 27 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Michio Yanai Symposium

Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 12A
Operational Weather Forecasting II: High Impact Weather
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Cliff Mass, University of Washington
  8:30 AM
12A.1
New England record rain event of 29–31 March 2010
Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA
  8:45 AM
12A.2
Anticipating a rare event utilizing forecast anomalies: The western U.S. storm of 18–23 January 2010
Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. Grumm, N. Hosenfeld, and T. I. Alcott
  9:00 AM
12A.3
The great Alaska warm-up of January 2009
Shaun E. Baines, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK
  9:15 AM
12A.4
Climatology, Life Cycle, and Impacts of Intermountain Cyclones
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. L. West, M. E. Jeglum, T. Lee, L. Bosart, J. Massey, and T. Painter

  9:30 AM
12A.5
Topographic and geographical influences on regional severe tornado maxima
Grayum Vickers, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Cossuth
Recording files available
Session 12B
Numerical Modeling V: High Resolution Modeling
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/GSD
  8:30 AM
12B.1
The Rapid Refresh—Replacement for the RUC, Pre-Implementation Development and Evaluation
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, T. G. Smirnova, G. S. Manikin, C. R. Alexander, S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, J. B. Olson, and P. Hofmann
  8:45 AM
12B.2
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): Recent and future enhancements, time-lagged ensembling, and 2010 forecast evaluation activities
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, J. M. Brown, P. Hofmann, and E. P. James
  9:00 AM
12B.3
A prototype implementation of the high resolution rapid refresh for Alaska
Eugene Petrescu, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK; and C. F. Dierking and D. Morton
  9:15 AM
12B.4A
  9:30 AM
12B.5

9:30 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Poster Session 4
Numerical Modeling and Simulations, and High Impact Weather
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
 
Paper 491 has been moved. New paper number is 8B.5A.

 
Paper 477 has been moved. New paper number is 14A.2A.

 
465
Heavy rains and historic flooding over Pakistan in late July 2010: Synoptic conditions and physical mechanisms
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill and J. S. Whitaker

Poster PDF (14.3 MB)

 
466
A Case Study of a Large-Amplitude Inertia–Gravity Wave over the Southeast
James H. Ruppert Jr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and L. Bosart

 
468
The impact of cloud hydrometeor advection on NWP model forecasts
Weiguo Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. S. Ferrier and E. Colón

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

 
Paper 469 has been moved. New paper number is 12B.4A

 
470
WRF QNSE test and evaluation
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, J. H. Gotway, and P. Oldenburg
Manuscript (474.7 kB)

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

 
471
 
472
 
473
Dynamical Aspects of Gulf Surge Events
Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Johnson

 
474
Simulation of Nocturnal LLJs with a WRF PBL Scheme Ensemble and Comparison to Observations from the ARM Project
Kristy C. Carter, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and A. J. Deppe and W. A. Gallus Jr.
Manuscript (420.0 kB)

Poster PDF (624.9 kB)

 
475
A comparison of WRF 3.2 and WRF 3.1.1 forecasts of seven nor'easter events
Stephen D. Nicholls, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and S. G. Decker
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

 
476
Analysis of summertime convective initiation in central Alabama using the Land Information System
Robert S. James, North Carolina State University, Indian Trail, NC; and J. L. Case, A. L. Molthan, and G. J. Jedlovec
Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Poster PDF (515.1 kB)

 
478
The eastern United States heat wave of 3–8 July 2010
Kevin S. Lipton, NOAA/NWSFO, Albany, NY; and R. H. Grumm
Manuscript (1.6 MB)

 
479
A detailed analysis of SPC "High Risk" outlooks, 2003-2009
Jason M. Davis, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and A. R. Dean and J. L. Guyer
Manuscript (277.9 kB)

 
480
Quasi-stationary convective systems forming perpendicular to, and above the cold pools of, strong bow echoes
Kelly M. Keene, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. S. Schumacher

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

 
481
Tropical convection interaction with Alaskan weather
Bill Ludwig, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK

 
482
Snowfall variance in the northeastern United States: Looking at what defines a "normal" winter
Paul, O.G. Heppner, Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greeenbelt, MD

 
483
Very high-resolution prediction of tornado-like vortices in a long-lived mesovortex
Alexander D. Schenkman, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

 
484
Structure and evolution of cloud clusters occurred over southern Korean peninsula
Won-Su Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and T. Y. Lee

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

 
485
A Numerical Simulation of the Bowing Process of A Squall Line Associated with a Stationary Front in South China during 23–24 April 2007
Zhiyong Meng, Peking University, Beijing, China; and F. Zhang, P. Markowski, D. Wu, and K. Zhao

 
486
Simulation of the TWP-ICE case with the Vector Vorticity Model
Nicholas Geyer, Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes, University Park, PA; and T. A. Cram and C. S. Konor

Poster PDF (785.9 kB)

 
487
A baroclinic instability test case on an anelastic dynamical core
Daniel A. Rothenberg, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and R. Heikes

Poster PDF (5.0 MB)

 
488
 
489
A single-source software approach for the inclusion of GPUs in community NWP models
Thomas N. Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

 
490
Non-iteration dimensional-split semi-Lagrangian advection with Riemann solver in non-hydrostatic system
Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. F. Fan

 
492

9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 8
Communicating Uncertainty (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )
Chair: Manda Adams, Univ. of North Carolina
  11:15 AM
J8.2
User engagement for water resources forecasts: a framework for iterative communication
Kevin Werner, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Averyt and G. Owen
  11:45 AM
J8.4
Meaning, Context, and Weather-Related Information Sharing
Susan A. Jasko, California Univ. of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and C. M. Kauffman and P. Hettler
  12:00 PM
J8.5
Communicating Satellite MW Ocean Product Errors to a Variety of Users
Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. J. Wentz, K. Hilburn, and C. A. Mears

Recording files available
Session 13A
Operational Weather Forecasting III: Tropical Cyclones
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC
  11:00 AM
13A.1
Improvements to the operational HWRF modeling system
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, R. Tuleya, J. Oconnor, S. Trahan, E. Aligo, N. Surgi, W. M. Lapenta, and S. J. Lord
  11:15 AM
13A.2
Diagnostic verification of COAMPS-TC performance for the HFIP retrospective forecasts
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and R. M. Hodur
  11:30 AM
13A.3
  11:45 AM
13A.4
Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) modeling efforts at NWS Southern Region Coastal Weather Forecast Offices
Jack Settelmaier, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and A. Gibbs, P. Santos, T. Freeman, and D. Gaer
  12:00 PM
13A.5
How vertical wind shear affects the intensification of Typhoon Jangmi (2008)
Levi Thatcher, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu
Recording files available
Session 13B
Numerical Modeling VI: Physical Parameterizations
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
  11:00 AM
13B.1
  11:15 AM
13B.2
Sensitivity of WRF-RTFDDA model physics in weather forecasting applications: From synoptic scale to meso-gamma scale
William Y. Y. Cheng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, Y. Zhang, Y. Liu, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, A. Pietrkovski, B. Mahoney, T. T. Warner, and S. Drobot
  11:30 AM
13B.3
Thunderstorm Outflow Dust Lofting and Resulting Impacts on Convection
Robert B. Seigel, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever
  11:45 AM
13B.4
Comparison of hydrometeor fall speed distributions in bin and bulk microphysical schemes
Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University, Camp Springs, MD; and W. A. Gallus Jr., G. Thompson, and B. S. Ferrier
  12:00 PM
13B.5
Impact of microphysics parameterizations on simulation of 13 March 2003 bow echo
Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, Atmospheric and Environment Research, Inc., Offutt AFB, NE; and R. Johnson and S. C. van den Heever
Recording files available
Joint Session 16
Assimilation of observations into models: Hybrid methods
Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Kayo Ide, University of Maryland
  11:00 AM
J16.1
  11:15 AM
J16.2
  11:45 AM
J16.4
Expanding the GSI-based hybrid ensemble-variational system to include more flexible parameter settings
Daryl T. Kleist, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and K. Ide, J. Whitaker, J. C. Derber, D. Parrish, and X. Wang
  12:00 PM
J16.5

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session
Presidential Town Hall Meeting
Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Town Hall Meetings; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; and the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology )

Ralph Cicerone, head of the National Academy of Sciences, will provide a take-home message on what the scientific community in general and the AMS community in particular can do to increase their credibility with the public. Cicerone has been thinking deeply about how the practice of science and the behavior of individual scientists can be improved. As much as listening, communication is based on some level of trust. And, just as the Tuesday event should provide a teachable moment about how we influence our environment, the ”Climategate” e-mails were a teachable moment about human frailty being a part of the practice of science. The current political climate has been reinforced by Climategate and by a few errors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report, damaging the trust the public feels not only in climate science, but also toward science in general. Viewing this in a positive manner, provides an incentive to redouble the efforts of all scientists in promoting ethical professional conduct and improving the way the business of science is done and the manner in which scientific findings are communicated to the public. For additional information on the 2011 Presidential Town Hall, please contact AMS President Peggy LeMone (e-mail: amspresident@ametsoc.org).
  12:15 PM
Ensuring Integrity in the Doing and Using of Science
Ralph Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Michio Yanai Symposium Luncheon
Location: 4C-1 (Washington State Convention Center)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 14A
Operational Weather Forecasting IV: Product Development and Evaluation
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY
  1:30 PM
14A.1
The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP
Mark Iredell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black
  2:00 PM
14A.2A
Preliminary investigation into lightning hazard prediction from high resolution model output
Stuart D. Miller Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin, J. S. Kain, E. W. McCaul Jr., A. R. Dean, and C. J. Melick
  2:15 PM
14A.3
Diagnosing diurnal convection signals in the NCEP GFS
Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Sun
  2:30 PM
14A.4
Quantifying extreme rainfall threats at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, K. F. Brill, and M. Eckert
  2:45 PM
14A.5
  3:00 PM
14A.6
Spatial and temporal climatology of atmospheric wave packets
Matthew Brian Souders, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and E. K. M. Chang
Recording files available
Session 14B
Numerical Modeling VII: Physical Parameterizations
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Kay Suselj, JPL
  1:30 PM
14B.1
Evaluating cloud microphysics schemes in nested NMMB forecasts
Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and I.M. Systems Group, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and E. Colon
  2:00 PM
14B.3
Implementation of the Ferrier cloud microphysics scheme in the NCEP GFS
Masayuki Nakagawa, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan, R. Sun, S. Moorthi, and B. Ferrier
  2:45 PM
14B.6
Parameterized convective momentum adjustment
Dr. Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. M. Mahoney and M. D. Parker
Recording files available
Joint Session 17
Assimilation of observations into models: 4D methods
Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Altug Aksoy, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD
  1:30 PM
J17.1
The NCAR 4DREKF ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Pan, Y. Wu, A. Bourgeois, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, S. F. Halvorson, and J. Pace
  1:45 PM
J17.2
  2:00 PM
J17.3
Mesoscale ensemble 4DVAR and its comparison with EnKF and 4DVAR
Meng Zhang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, X. Zhang, and X. Y. Huang
  2:30 PM
J17.5
Recently upgrades and improvements of WRF 4D-Var system
Xin Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Pan, Q. Cheng, and X. Y. HUang
  2:45 PM
J17.6
Introduction of GRAPES_VAR
Wei Han, NOAA, College Park, MD; and J. Xue

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Coffee Break

Meet the President

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 15A
Operational Weather Forecasting V: Product Development and Evaluation
Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Lans P. Rothfusz, NOAA/NWS
  3:30 PM
15A.1
Upcoming changes to the NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling system: Transition to NEMS-NMMB and high resolution nests
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, T. Black, M. Ek, Z. Janjic, Y. Lin, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, B. S. Ferrier, G. Gayno, H. M. Lin, W. Wang, V. Wong, and Y. Wu
  4:00 PM
15A.3
Evaluation of Severe-Weather Forecasting Parameters Derived from Quasi-Real-Time Mesoscale Analyses using VORTEX2 soundings
Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, D. J. Stensrud, and N. Yussouf
  4:15 PM
15A.4
Challenges in verifying predictions of the pre-convective environment
Scott S. Lindstrom, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. A. Petersen and R. M. Aune
  4:30 PM
15A.6
A comparison of several analysis schemes in their ability to diagnose boundaries
Ed Szoke, CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, Y. Xie, L. S. Wharton, R. Glancy, E. Thaler, D. Barjenbruch, B. Meier, and Z. Toth
Recording files available
Session 15B
Numerical Modeling VIII: Tropical Cyclones
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
  3:30 PM
15B.1
Quantification of the processes driving the overland reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)
Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and R. S. Schumacher and T. J. Galarneau, Jr.
  3:45 PM
15B.2
The effects of model initialization on model forecasts of tropical cyclones
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and J. L. Franklin, R. J. Pasch, and W. Hogsett
  4:00 PM
15B.3
Initialization of Tropical Cyclones in Numerical Prediction Systems
Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and X. Ge

  4:15 PM
15B.4
  4:30 PM
15B.5
Wave coupling impact on tropical cyclone simulations in global models
Yalin Fan, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin
  4:45 PM
15B.6
Ensemble WRF simulations of the 1938 New England Hurricane Using 20th Century Reanalysis
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recording files available
Joint Session 18
Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere V
Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center
  3:30 PM
J18.1
  3:45 PM
J18.2
Introduction to Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System (GSI) and its User Support
Ming Hu, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Stark, H. Shao, and X. Y. Huang
  4:00 PM
J18.3
Improvement of microwave land emissivity calculation in the CRTM
Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek and J. Derber

  4:15 PM
J18.4
Radiance bias correction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation
Yanqiu Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Derber, A. Collard, R. Treadon, G. Gayno, and J. A. Jung
  4:30 PM
J18.5
FIM Performance for some of the Major events of the 2009-2010 Winter Season
Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, M. Fiorino, B. D. Jamison, W. R. Moninger, and S. R. Sahm
  4:45 PM
J18.6
Improvements to NAVDAS 3DVAR Analysis for COAMPS
Keith D. Sashegyi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Pauley, J. S. Goerss, W. F. Campbell, W. T. Thompson, R. L. Pauley, and R. A. Stocker

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


AMS 91st Annual Meeting Adjourns