Program: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (91st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Short Course Registration

WeatherFest

Welcome Reception Honoring Newly Elected Fellows

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center)

Registration continues through January 27

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Plenary Session

Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate

Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; the IMPACTS: Weather 2010; and the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International )

9:00 AM

CWAC

Recorded Presentation

Panel Discussion

Communicating Weather and Climate

Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; and the IMPACTS: Weather 2010 )

Panelists: Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune; Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre; Doyle Rice, USA Today; Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council

Moderator: Robert T. Ryan, NBC4 TV

9:00 AM

Panelist: Thomas E. Skilling

Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV, Chicago, IL

9:10 AM

Panelist: Claire Martin

Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada

9:20 AM

Panelist: Doyle Rice

Doyle Rice, USA Today, Washington, DC

9:30 AM

Panelist: Martin Storksdieck

Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council, Washington, DC

Spouses' Coffee

Coffee Break

Session 1A

Decision Support Meteorology I

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS

11:00 AM

1A.1

NWS Services Roadmap for the Decade Ahead

Andrew Stern, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Green, J. Tuell, E. Jacks, and D. Caldwell

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

1A.2

Real-time estimation of population exposure to weather hazards

Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK ; and K. L. Manross, K. L. Ortega, and B. P. Walawender

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1A.3

The first steps at providing impact based decision support services (IDSS) in Alaska

Don Moore, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK; and C. Scott, J. Osiensky, G. Hufford, G. Petrescu, and A. Fish

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1A.4

Statistical upscaling of numerical weather predictions to enable coupled modelling of local weather impacts

Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY; and H. Li, A. P. Praino, and A. Praino

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.5 MB)

Session 1B

Forecasting Skill Improvement I

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

CoChair: Levi Thatcher, University of Utah

Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah

11:00 AM

1B.1

Comparison of traditional and neighborhood verification statistics for the Hydrometeorology Testbed Forecast Demonstration Project using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET)

John E. Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, E. I. Tollerud, P. Oldenburg, H. Yuan, and I. Jankov

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

1B.2

Evaluation of modeled precipitation intensity distributions and their application to short term forecasting

Christina P. Kalb, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Pinto and S. Dettling

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1B.3

Evaluation of modifications to the convective initiation function in the Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and T. R. Holt

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1B.4

Gene-expression programming—a new tool for creating NWP ensemble averages and probability forecasts

Atoossa Bakhshaii, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 4

Increasing Public Awareness of Weather Forecasts I

Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Symposium on Education; and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: David R. Smith, American Meteorological Society; Carolyn Reynolds, NRL

11:00 AM

J4.1

Extending Forecast Skill for Winter Storms: Challenges Associated With Improving the Prediction of Major Snow Events and Public/User Response To These Forecasts

Louis W. Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J4.2

Hurricane wind, storm surge, flooding rains—why don't some people get it?

William L. Read, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 2A

Decision/Education Support II

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

2A.1

New ensemble-based products for tropical cyclones

Thomas M. Hamill, ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, M. DeMaria, Z. Toth, R. L. Gall, and E. Rappaport

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2A.2

Pirate probabilities: On the importance of the dynamic coupling of meteorological and intelligence information for piracy interdiction

James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and L. Esher, E. Regnier, and W. Lingsch

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2A.3

Tracking Outflows from Severe Thunderstorms Using NSF EarthScope USArray Pressure Sensors

Jonathan E. Tytell, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Eakins and F. Vernon

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.4 MB)

2:15 PM

2A.4

Effective use of NWP in the forecast process: A new COMET distance learning course

William R. Bua, UCAR, College Park, MD; and S. D. Jascourt and G. Byrd

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (904.5 kB)

Session 2B

Forecast Skill Improvement II

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL

1:30 PM

2B.1

Review of NCEP GFS forecast skills and major upgrades

Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2B.2

Kalman filter and analog schemes to postprocess numerical weather predictions

Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Nipen, Y. Liu, G. Roux, R. B. Stull, T. T. Warner, and P. Childs

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2B.3

The Impact of Real-Time Observations on the WRF Model Surface Forecasts

Elena Novakovskaia, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and Z. Guo and C. Sloop

2:15 PM

2B.4

Adding Value to the Guidance Beyond Day Two: Temperature Forecast Opportunities Across the NWS Southern Region

Néstor S. Flecha, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and B. N. Meisner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.8 MB)

Joint Session 5

Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere I

Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: R. N. Hoffman, ESSIC UMD

1:30 PM

J5.1

The Canadian regional data assimilation and forecasting system

Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and A. Patoine, E. Lapalme, N. Benbouta, P. Vaillancourt, M. Tanguay, S. Macpherson, M. Lajoie, M. Desgagne, and V. Lee

1:45 PM

J5.2

Progress in the GEM-NEMO coupled data assimilation and prediction system

Jean-Marc Bélanger, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and G. Smith, F. Roy, H. Ritchie, and S. Skachko

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J5.3

Regional NWP: why bother?

Dale Barker, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Macpherson, C. Jones, and R. Dumelow

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J5.4

Development of GRAPES Hourly Assimilation System

Chen Zi-tong, CMA, Guangzhou, China

Joint Session 6

Increasing Public Awareness of Weather Forecasts II

Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Symposium on Education; and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

1:30 PM

J6.1

The new universe of weather consumers—The challenges to media in delivering weather information to consumers in a technology driven society

Ian MIller, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and C. Samsury

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J6.2

Enhanced decision support and information services from NWS Forecast Offices—The example of the May 10, 2010 Oklahoma tornado outbreak

Richard Smith, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 1

Decision Support, Forecast Verification and Downscaling

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

84

Decision Support Services Provided by the NWS Corpus Christi Weather Forecast Office during the historic 2008–2009 South Texas Drought and Fire Season

Jason Runyen, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX

Handout (5.8 MB)

85

Fostering collaboration and communication with Integrated Warning Team (IWT) workshops

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and A. Bailey

86

Warning polygon geometry: logic for creating smarter storm based warnings

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE

87

Storm Prediction Information for Decision Making at Sea

Lizzie S. R. Froude, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Handout (1.2 MB)

88

A NWS forecasters perspective on decision support services around the Deepwater Horizon disaster

Brian Garcia, NOAA/NWS, Eureka, CA

90

Verification of simulated radar reflectivity and echo-top forecast at NCEP

Binbin Zhou, I.M. Systems Group and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD; and J. Du, S. Liu, and G. Dimego

Manuscript (692.5 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

89

Pilot Projects Underway within NWS to Demonstrate New Service Capabilities

91

A new paradigm for occluded fronts and the occlusion process

David M. Schultz, Universities of Helsinki and Manchester/Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and G. Vaughan

Handout (731.8 kB)

92

COMET Training on the Use of High-Resolution Models

Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Byrd

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.5 MB)

93

Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification statistics visualization

Paul Oldenburg, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway and T. Jensen

Handout (931.3 kB)

94

An objective technique for evaluating forecast radar reflectivity from an NWP model

Edward Colón, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and I.M. Systems Group, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Zhou, B. S. Ferrier, S. Liu, M. Pyle, and G. DiMego

95

Spatial forecast verification: image warping

E. Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Lindström, F. Lindgren, L. Chen, M. DePersio, G. Do, K. Ellertson, Y. Jin, C. Xia, R. L. Smith, and E. L. Kang

96

Development and Implementation of MODE Time Domain Object-Based Verification

Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

97

Verification of Pre-convective Environments using Sounding Data from the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2)

Graylen L. Boone, UCAR/NCAR, Gates, NC; and D. Dowell and K. Manning

98

Spatial verification of convective systems during the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, S. J. Weiss, P. T. Marsh, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. J. Clark, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and R. S. Schneider

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

99

Geospatial verification of experimental severe weather warnings

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/MDL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith, K. L. Ortega, and S. Stough

Handout (216.2 kB)

100

Regional downscaling of NCEP CFS seasonal forecasts by NCEP RSM

Yunfei Zhang, NOAA/NWS/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang

101

Development of a global data server using downscaling techniques to produce high-resolution, long-range, hourly forecast data

Holly C. Hassenzahl, Weather Central, LP, Madison, WI; and B. A. Wilt, C. Johnson, R. Runnheim, R. Arb, A. Rice, M. Thomas, B. J. Good, D. Graham, and N. R. Keene

Handout (624.6 kB)

102

Using MODE with Cloudsat Data

Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Manuscript (342.8 kB)

103

Impacts of vertical resolution in the Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System on atmospheric boundary layer structure and radio refractivity over the Sea of Japan

Robert Marshall, Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren, VA; and K. Horgan and I. Renta

104

Exploring the use of stability fields from a three dimensional objective analysis scheme in the NCAR AutoNowcaster

Eric J. Nelson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Roberts, A. R. S. Anderson, D. L. Megenhardt, and P. D. Bothwell

105

A case study of Hurricane Felix (2007) rapid intensification

Ian C. Colon-Pagan, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. Davis and G. Holland

106

Relationships between heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula and remote tropical cyclones

Kun-Young Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and T. Y. Lee

Handout (312.1 kB)

107

Cool-season intermittent precipitation cells in the Pacific Northwest

Sandra E. Yuter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. M. Hall, J. G. Cunningham, N. R. Hardin, and B. A. Colle

108

Observed vertical structure of snow storms in Steamboat Springs, CO: Orographic enhancement in a high altitude environment

Nathan R. Hardin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter and K. Friedrich

109

Anticipating large hail in WFO Tallahassee's forecast area: a baseline climatology of sounding parameters

Jeffry S. Evans, NOAA/NWS, Tallahassee, FL; and D. F. Van Dyke III

110

Observations of Weather Phenomena by NSF EarthScope USArray Seismic and Pressure Sensors

Frank L. Vernon, University of California , La Jolla, CA; and J. Eakins, J. E. Tytell, B. Busby, and B. Woodward

Manuscript (2.6 MB)

Handout (27.2 MB)

Joint Session 1

Communicating with Technology (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Symposium on Education; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )

Chair: Rajul Pandya, UCAR

4:00 PM

J1.1

Integrating air quality tools with the Wildland Fire Decision Support System

Narasimhan Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and M. Rorig, T. Strand, T. J. Brown, S. Raffuse, P. Lahm, and T. Zimmerman

4:15 PM

J1.2

Using YouTube Videos to Communicate Science

Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and T. Nakamura and M. Dunlap

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J1.3

Commuicating Climate Science fo the General Public

Andrew Freedman, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ; and H. Cullen and M. McGuirk

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J1.4

Utility of 2D/3D visualization methods in analyzing and disseminating flood information

Jamie L. Dyer, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and P. Amburn, D. Reed, and D. Welch

Recorded Presentation

J1.5

PAPER WITHDRAWN

5:00 PM

J1.5A

Undergraduates using multimedia to present climate research in their own words: An overview of the Communicating Climate Change program at the University of North Dakota

Gretchen Mullendore, University of North Dakota , Grand Forks, ND; and L. Munski, A. Kirilenko, F. Remer, and M. Baker

Recorded Presentation

J1.6

Communicating with Technology in Large Classes

Session 3B

Predictability

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: James D. Doyle, NRL

4:00 PM

3B.1

On the predictability of cyclogenesis and low-land snow in the Pacific Northwest

Dale Durran, University of Wasington, Seattle, WA; and P. A. Reinecke

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3B.2

Ensemble error growth and the mesoscale predictability of cyclogenesis in the lee of the European Alps

P. Alexander Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

4:30 PM

3B.3

Characteristics of short-term predictability of land-falling cyclones along the North American west coast

Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and L. A. McMurdie

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1012.3 kB)

4:45 PM

3B.4

Patterns of forecast error and analysis uncertainty in medium-range forecast skill dropouts

Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Maue

Manuscript (2.5 MB)

5:00 PM

3B.5

Predictability and Dynamics of a squall-line and bow-echo event during BAMEX

Fuqing Zhang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Melhauser

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3B.6

Microphysical evolution within winter snow storms over Long Island, NY

David A. Stark, NOAA-National Weather Service, Upton, NY; and B. A. Colle and S. E. Yuter

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 9

Pacific Northwest Weather including results from the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics (Co-Sponsored by the AMS Committee on Mountain Meteorology)

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )

Chairs: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS; H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL

J9.1

Forecasting for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and decision support services

4:00 PM

J9.1A

Automated Snowfall Measurements—2010 Winter Olympics

Bill Scott, EC, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J9.2

Realtime high-resolution mesoscale modeling for the Vancouver Olympics

Aijun Deng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. Stauffer, G. Hunter, J. Zielonka, J. Toffler, E. Sorbo, I. Sykes, and D. Henn

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J9.3

Forecasting sun vs. shade in complex terrain for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

Rosie Howard, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J9.4

Dual-polarized radar observations of precipitation during SNOW-V10

H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, T. J. Schuur, and D. E. Forsyth

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

J9.5

The west coast thermal trough: structure, evolution and prediction

Matthew C. Brewer, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J9.6

Wintertime extreme precipitation events and flooding along the Pacific Northwest coast

Michael Warner, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass and E. Salathé

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 7

Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere II

Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD; Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah

4:00 PM

J7.1

The recent progresses of satellite data assimilation in GRAPES

Hua Zhang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J7.2

Optimization of In-situ Aircraft Observations for Various Assimilation Techniques

Neil A. Jacobs, AirDat LLC, Morrisville, NC; and F. Gao, P. Childs, X. Zhang, X. Y. Huang, X. Zhang, M. Croke, and Y. Liu

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J7.3

Recent upgrades to and ongoing challenges for the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. S. F. V. De Pondeca

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

4:45 PM

J7.4

Assimilation of infrared Meteosat data into high-resolution NWP and nowcasting models

Robert Nigel Tubbs, Met Office, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (317.0 kB)

5:00 PM

J7.5

Ensemble data assimilation across a range of scales and phenomena with WRF/DART

C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Anderson, S. M. Cavallo, D. Dowell, S. Y. Ha, G. Romine, and R. Torn

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J7.6

Local ensemble transform Kalman filter experiments with the WRF model

Masaru Kunii, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, College Park, MD; and T. Miyoshi

Recorded Presentation

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate Art Show

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 4A

Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty I: Large-scale systems

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Zoltan Toth, NOAA/ESRL/GSD

8:30 AM

4A.1

Prediction of Extratropical Cyclones by TIGGE Ensemble Prediction Systems

Lizzie S. R. Froude, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

4A.2

PAPER WITHDRAWN

8:45 AM

4A.2A

Assessing the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System in Predicting the Magnitude and the Spectrum of Analysis and Forecast Uncertainties

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and I. Szunyogh

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4A.3

Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Torn

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4A.4

Results from testing of EnKF and an EnKF-Var hybrid using the GFS during the 2010 hurricane season

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker, S. G. Benjamin, M. Fiorino, and D. T. Kleist

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4A.5

Forecast products for hurricane prediction: deterministic and ensemble-based

Erik Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and F. Prates and D. Richardson

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

New Forecasting Systems and Capabilities

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah

8:30 AM

4B.1

Overview of Chinese New Generation NWP System GRAPES

Jishan Xue, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4B.2

Development of a new global forecast system in CMA

Xueshun Shen, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4B.3

Experiences with a 1.5km version of the Met Office Unified Model for short range forecasting

Humphrey W. Lean, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and F. J. Bornemann, Y. Tang, and E. Carter

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (321.2 kB)

9:15 AM

4B.4

Transitioning research to operations: Implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for developing countries

Brent L. Shaw, Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and R. L. Carpenter, Jr., P. L. Spencer, Z. M. DuFran, J. W. Conway, and M. D. Eilts

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4B.5

Numerical simulations of the influence of the Vancouver metropolitan area on summertime atmospheric circulations during EPiCC

Sylvie Leroyer, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Belair and J. Mailhot

Recorded Presentation

Spouses' Coffee

Exhibit Hours

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 2

Ensembles and Probabilistic Forecasting

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

111

The value of ensembles and statistical post-processing for ship routing guidance

James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Etro, A. Etro, J. Cook, I. Nutall, and S. Hall

112

Covarying TC-forced wind speed/wave height probabilities

James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. R. Sampson, P. A. Wittmann, M. DeMaria, and J. Knaff

113

Ensemble based probabilistic forecast and its verification

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

114

Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, E. Serra, D. Hodyss, C. R. Sampson, M. Flatau, and J. A. Ridout

115

Ensemble Hurricane forecasts from a suite of Mesoscale models

Mrinal K. Biswas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

116

What is a reasonable ensemble size for operational ensemble forecast?

Juhui Ma, NCEP/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

Manuscript (595.3 kB)

117

A dynamical performance-ranking method for predicting individual ensemble member's performance and its application to a smarter ensemble averaging

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Zhou

118

Ensemble prediction system development for hydrometeorological testbed (HMT) application

Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, H. Yuan, L. S. Wharton, Z. Toth, T. Schneider, A. White, and F. M. Ralph

119

What are the added values of LAMEPS?

Yong Wang, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna, Austria

Manuscript (772.5 kB)

120

Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS

Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

121

NAEFS statistical down-scaling method applications to Alaska

Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

122

Evaluating probabilistic precipitation forecasts generated by deterministic convection-allowing NWP models

Jill D. Hardy, NSF, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Novak, J. J. Gourley, and M. E. Pyle

Handout (1.3 MB)

123

Improving probabilistic ensemble forecasts of convection through the application of QPF-POP relationships

Christopher J. Schaffer, NOAA/NWS, Peachtree City, GA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. Segal

Manuscript (445.1 kB)

124

Sensitivity of global medium-range forecast ensemble distributions of SST, 2m air temperature, and 10m wind speed to parameters of a prognostic SST model

Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau and C. Reynolds

125

In-line processing of ensemble distributions in a simple model

Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Hansen and C. A. Reynolds

126

Optimization of Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme

Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, S. Moorthi, R. Wobus, J. Ma, and W. Yang

128

Ensemble-based analysis of factors contributing to the development of a multi-day warm-season heavy rain event

Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Handout (15.0 MB)

Poster 127 has been moved. New paper number is 6A.3A.

129

Down-Selection of NWP Ensemble Configurations

Jared Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Kolczynski Jr., T. C. McCandless, S. E. Haupt, D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and K. J. Schmehl

Manuscript (1015.8 kB)

131

Prediction of the Record-breaking Rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) with a High-resolution Ensemble: Sensitivity to Cumulus Parameterization

Xingqin Fang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo

132

ensembleBMA: An R package for probabilistic weather forecasting

Chris Fraley, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, and M. Sloughter

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

133

Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting

William Kleiber, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting

134

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Uncertainty on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and rainfall

Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, T. Holt, and L. W. O'Neill

135

Experimental Probabalistic Forecast Information Provided by NWS WFOs

Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and S. A. Amburn

Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture

Session 5A

Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty II: Large-scale Systems

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Justin McLay, NRL

11:00 AM

5A.1

The development of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Hou, M. Wei, R. Wobus, S. Moorthi, and J. Ma

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5A.2

Optimizing ensemble forecasts by EnKF in NCEP operational environment

Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, D. Kleist, J. Derber, S. J. Lord, and J. Whitaker

11:30 AM

5A.3

Ensemble-based sensitivity estimates for guidance in forecasting high seas

James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Peak and C. Corbin

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5A.4

Verification of winds and seas forecasts from the FNMOC ensemble forecast system

Michael Sestak, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and S. Klotz, J. A. Hansen, P. M. Pauley, and P. A. Wittmann

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Forecast Center Overviews I

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL

11:00 AM

5B.1

Recent progress in analysis and prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (Invited Speaker)

Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. M. Lapenta, J. Ward, G. DiMego, H. L. Tolman, J. C. Derber, Y. Zhu, M. B. Ek, H. L. Pan, and M. Iredell

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5B.2

Recent progress and the future directions of the Canadian numerical weather and environmental prediction system: optimizing research to operations mechanisms (Invited Speaker)

Michel Jean, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 10

Risk Communication of Hurricanes

Location: 618-620 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )

Cochairs: Julie L. Demuth, NCAR; Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

11:00 AM

J10.1

Risk Communication Across Cultures

Vankita Brown, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J10.2

Dynamics of hurricane risk perception

Holly Marlatt, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. W. Trumbo, L. Peek, M. Lueck, E. Gruntfest, B. McNoldy, and W. Schubert

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J10.3

Improving storm surge risk communication

Betty Hearn Morrow, SocResearch, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome

11:45 AM

J10.4

Assessing the Publics' Need For Storm Surge Warning Information

Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. H. Morrow, J. Rhome, and J. Feyen

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Joint Panel Discussion 2

Communicating with Each Other: The Challenges and Rewards of Expanding Atmospheric Science’s Professional Partners(Themed Joint Session)

Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth History Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )

Panelists: Ankur R. Desai, Univ. of Wisconsin; Robert Henson, UCAR; Eve Gruntfest, Univ. of Oklahoma; Roger D. Turner, Univ. of Pennsylvania

1:30 PM

JPD2.1

Communicating with Each Other: The Challenges and Rewards of Expanding Atmospheric Science’s Professional Partners

Ankur R. Desai, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Henson, E. Gruntfest, and R. D. Turner

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

A Quick Tour of Crosscutting Activities at NCAR & UCAR

Robert Henson, UCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

Progress in Weaving Social Science

Eve Gruntfest, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Session 6A

Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty III: Post Processing

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Craig H. Bishop, NRL

1:30 PM

6A.1

Australian approaches to probabilistic precipitation forecasting

Michael Foley, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and S. Cooper, P. Riley, E. Morgan, and J. Bally

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (589.7 kB)

1:45 PM

6A.2

Simple- and modified-poor man's QPF ensembles, and a neural network approach

Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. M. Krasnopolsky

Manuscript (943.6 kB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

6A.3

PAPER WITHDRAWN

2:00 PM

6A.3A

Impact of linear variance calibration on ensemble wind variance in atmospheric transport and dispersion forecasts

Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, R. I. Sykes, R. Long, and A. Deng

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (806.8 kB)

2:15 PM

6A.3

Ensemble Postprocessing for Weather Trajectories

Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany

2:30 PM

6A.4

Probabilistic visibility forecasting using Bayesian model averaging

Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. M. Chmielecki

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

6A.5

Impact of Spatial Bias Correction and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging Over the Northeast United States

Michael J. Erickson, SUNY/Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. Pollina, and J. J. Charney

Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Forecast Center Overviews II

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Carolyn Reynolds, NRL

1:30 PM

6B.1

Current and Future Numerical Weather Prediction in the U.S. Navy (Invited Speaker)

Simon W. Chang, NRL, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

6B.2

An update on USAF modeling and forecast initiatives (Invited Speaker)

John Egentowich, Air Force Weather, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

6B.3

National unified operational prediction capability: progress and national research initiatives

Fred Toepfer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Springs, MD; and D. McCarran and S. A. Sandgathe

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (36.1 kB)

2:45 PM

6B.4

The Earth System Prediction Capability—a multiagency partnership to advance US environmental prediction

Kim Curry, United States Navy, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (21.8 kB)

Joint Session 11

Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere III

Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Patricia M. Pauley, NRL; Richard E. Peterson, Texas Tech University

1:30 PM

J11.1

A Vortex Removal Algorithm for Numerical Weather Prediction Model Tropical Cyclone Applications

Henry R. Winterbottom, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J11.2

Improved analysis of the tropical cyclone outer wind structure using IR satellite wind retrievals in a global numerical weather prediction model

Christopher J. Slocum, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Fiorino

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (831.0 kB)

2:00 PM

J11.3

Diagnostic analysis of short-term hurricane vortex evolution in high-resolution ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation

Tomislava Vukicevic, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, K. Sellwood, P. Reasor, S. Gopalakrishnan, L. Bucci, S. Aberson, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J11.4

NOAA/AOML/HRD's Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS): A comparative analysis of a Hurricane Paloma (2008) case using simulated vs. real vortex-scale aircraft observations

Altug Aksoy, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Lorsolo, T. Vukicevic, K. Sellwood, P. Reasor, and S. D. Aberson

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J11.5

NOAA/AOML/HRD's Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS), results of semi-operational implementation during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season

Kathryn Sellwood, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, T. Vukicevic, S. Aberson, and S. Lorsolo

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J11.6

Evaluation of an Ensemble Data Assimilation System with Airborne and Ground-based Doppler Radar Winds for Atlantic Hurricanes

Yonghui Weng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

J11.7

Data Assimilation Experiments of an Antarctic Cyclone Using WRF 4DVAR

Qingnong Xiao, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL; and K. Chu

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Location: 601 (Washington State Convention Center)

Joint Session 12

Assimilation of observations into models: Advanced methods

Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Chris Snyder, NCAR; Timothy L. Miller, NASA/MSFC

3:30 PM

J12.1

TOWARD THE ASSIMILATION OF IMAGES

Francois-Xavier Le Dimet, INRIA, Grenoble, France

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J12.2

On the Gaussian approach to adaptive covariance inflation

Takemasa Miyoshi, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

J12.3

Localization and correlation in ensemble Kalman filters

Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J12.4

A kernel-density based ensemble filter applicable to high-dimensional systems

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA / ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J12.5

What should an “outer loop” for ensemble data assimilation look like?

Craig H. Bishop, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Hodyss

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J12.6

Bias correction using analysis increments within an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation

Ji-Sun Kang, University of Maryland, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. Kalnay and T. Miyoshi

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

J12.7

Spectral and morphing ensemble Kalman filters

Jan Mandel, University of Colorado, Denver, CO; and J. D. Beezley and L. Cobb

Manuscript (2.9 MB)

Session 7

Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty IV: Short-range Ensemble Forecasting

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

3:30 PM

7.1

Challenges to ensemble system design for Warn-on-Forecast

David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and D. M. Wheatley

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

7.2

Evaluation of convection-allowing ensemble forecasts of extreme rainfall associated with a mesoscale vortex

Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. J. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

7.3

The performance of high-resolution WRF ensemble QPF during heavy winter precipitation events in California

Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, I. Jankov, H. Yuan, J. H. Gotway, and P. Oldenburg

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (267.5 kB)

4:15 PM

7.4

NCAR ensemble RTFDDA: real-time operational forecasting applications and new data assimilation developments

Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, T. Betancourt, J. Knievel, B. Mahoney, J. Pace, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, N. A. Jacobs, P. Childs, and K. Parks

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

7.5

Evaluation of storm initiation uncertainty information from a high-resolution time-lagged ensemble and its application to short-term forecasting

James O. Pinto, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Grim, D. Dowell, H. Cai, and M. Steiner

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

7.6

NCEP activities in very-short range and high resolution ensemble prediction

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Zhou, M. Pyle, D. Jovic, G. DiMego, and G. Manikin

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

7.7

NCEP model guidance for the 2009–0 mid-Atlantic snowfest

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

7.8

The global ensemble prediction system(GEPS) and regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) at CMA and its application in monsoon season

Jing Chen, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and H. Tian, G. Deng, X. Li, J. Gong, Y. Li, X. Wang, and J. Hu

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 20

Improving communications between the research and operational communities, including HFIP

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges )

Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah

3:30 PM

J20.1

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Accomplishments, Lessons Learned, and Challenges

Robert L. Gall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, F. Marks, and E. Rappaport

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J20.2

The HFIP high resolution hurricane forecast test

Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, L. Carson, T. L. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. Wolff, and H. Yuan

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

J20.3

Application of COAMPS-TC for HFIP

James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, S. Chen, J. Cummings, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. R. Moskaitis, M. Peng, K. D. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J20.4

The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Team (TCMT): Evaluating Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Paul A. Kucera, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, L. Nance, C. L. Williams, K. Crosby, M. Harrold, and T. Jensen

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J20.5

The Developmental Testbed Center: Facilitating Transition between Research and Operation in Numerical Weather Prediction

Ying-Hwa Kuo, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, S. Koch, and B. G. Brown

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J20.6

Research and innovation transition team: facilitating transitions into operations

Douglas Hilderbrand, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (265.3 kB)

5:00 PM

J20.7

Advancing the national ensemble prediction system capability

Anthony Eckel, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Hilderbrand

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J20.8

Collaborative efforts by the atmospheric research and operations communities for improving a thunderstorm nowcasting system

Amanda R. S. Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Roberts, M. R. Volkmer, and D. W. Sharp

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (409.1 kB)

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Joint Session 3

Risk Communication of Weather and Climate Information (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )

Cochairs: Nate Johnson, NBC Owned Television Stations Group; John Sokich, NOAA/NWS

8:30 AM

J3.1

The Communication of Risk: At the Crossroads of Science, Economics, and Communications

Paul Hettler, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and S. A. Jasko and C. M. Kauffman

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J3.2

Communicating weather, climate and catastrophe risk and preparedness

Jeanne Salvatore, Insurance Information Institute, New York, NY

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J3.3

Insurance loss return periods with extreme event intensity thresholds across the US: 1980–2010

Adam B. Smith, NOAA/NCEI, Asheville, NC

Manuscript (21.8 kB)

9:15 AM

J3.4

Visualization of slow-developing hazards: Influencing perceptions and behaviors to facilitate adaptation planning

Tim G. Frazier, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and F. Murtinho, G. Broad, D. Campbell, P. Howe, and H. Reyes Hernandez

9:30 AM

J3.5

How do people perceive and respond to flash flood risk and warnings?

Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lazo, K. Mulder, J. L. Demuth, and A. Bostrom

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J3.6

Now what do people know about global climate change? A mental models approach

Ann Bostrom, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. W. Reynolds and R. Hudson

Recorded Presentation

Session 8A

Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty V: Verification and Validation

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC

8:30 AM

8A.1

Verification of National Weather Service tropical cyclone intensity probabilities and future plans

Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8A.2

SLOSH model verification: a GIS-based approach

Nicole C. Grams, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8A.3

The DTC Ensemble Testbed: A New Testing and Evaluation Facility for Mesoscale Ensembles

Zoltan Toth, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, I. Jankov, T. L. Jensen, H. Yuan, E. I. Tollerud, L. S. Wharton, P. T. McCaslin, B. Kuo, L. Nance, and S. E. Koch

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (416.7 kB)

9:15 AM

8A.4

A method for validating convection-permitting models using an automated convective-cell tracking algorithm

Simon Caine, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and T. P. Lane, P. T. May, J. O. Pinto, C. Jakob, M. J. Manton, and S. T. Siems

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8A.5

Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Storm Forecasts using an Object-Based Approach

Huaqing Cai, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, J. O. Pinto, B. G. Brown, and P. He

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8A.6

Is Change Good? Measuring the quality of updating forecasts

Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (338.5 kB)

Session 8B

Numerical Modeling I: Numerics and Dynamics

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Dale R. Durran, University of Washington

8:30 AM

8B.1

Incremental implementation of model dynamics for NCEP GFS

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8B.2

Multiscale Eulerian member of NCEP's National Environmental Modeling System

Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and R. Vasic

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8B.3

Introduction of GRAPES dynamic core

Dehui Chen Sr., Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and J. Xue Sr. and X. Shen Sr.

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8B.4

A GPU implementation of the WRF-ARW dynamical core

Thomas N. Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

Recorded Presentation

8B.5

Performance of a three-dimensional semi-Lagrangian advection scheme for idealized steep topography

9:30 AM

8B.5A

A flux-form version of the Conservative Semi-Lagrangian Multi-tracer transport scheme (CSLAM) on the cubed sphere grid

Lucas M. Harris, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and P. H. Lauritzen and R. Mittal

10:00 AM

8B.6

Two-dimensional simulations of flow over idealized topography using a spectral element model

Sasa Gabersek, UCAR/NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle and F. X. Giraldo

Recorded Presentation

Spouses' Coffee

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Exhibit Hours

Session 9A

NOAA HWT Spring Experiment

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Gail Hartfield, NOAA/NWS

10:30 AM

9A.1

An overview of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring forecasting experiment

Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, C. W. Siewert, R. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit, B. Entwistle, T. L. Jensen, R. Schneider, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9A.2

Realtime Convection-Permitting Ensemble and Convection-Resolving Deterministic Forecasts of CAPS for the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment

Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, J. Gao, X. Wang, S. J. Weiss, A. Clark, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, J. Du, T. Jensen, and Y. H. Kuo

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

11:00 AM

9A.3

Object-oriented clustering analysis of CAPS convective scale ensemble forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment: A first step toward optimal ensemble configuration for convective scale probabilistic forecasting

Aaron T. Johnson, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, F. Kong, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (801.6 kB)

11:15 AM

9A.4

The quantitative precipitation forecasting component of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

Faye E. Barthold, NOAA/NWS and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and M. J. Bodner, D. R. Novak, R. Bann, R. Oravec, B. Sullivan, A. R. Dean, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, R. A. Sobash, A. J. Clark, F. Kong, S. J. Weiss, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (764.1 kB)

11:30 AM

9A.5

The Aviation Weather Forecasting Component of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

Jason J. Levit, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and B. Entwistle, S. J. Weiss, S. P. Burback, K. T. Burtis, K. S. Eagle-Brogan, and S. Silberberg

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (131.0 kB)

11:45 AM

9A.6

The Developmental Testbed Center Objective Evaluation Performed During the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, P. T. Marsh, F. E. Barthold, J. J. Levit, F. Kong, A. J. Clark, B. G. Brown, D. R. Novak, J. S. Kain, R. S. Schneider, and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (884.6 kB)

Session 9B

Numerical Modeling II: Surface and Boundary Layer Modeling

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Jim Steenburgh, University of Utah

10:30 AM

9B.1

Improving the representation of surface exchanges between the urban canopy and the surface layer in a mesoscale atmospheric model

Syed Zahid Husain, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Bélair, S. Leroyer, N. Gauthier, M. Abrahamowicz, and J. Mailhot

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9B.2

Influence of land surface models on predictions of the vertical structure of stable boundary layers in AT&D applications

David R. Stauffer, Penn State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and B. P. Reen, B. Gaudet, and N. L. Seaman

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9B.3

Unifying convection and boundary layer parameterizations in weather and climate prediction models: the Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) approach

J. Teixeira, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and K. Suselj and M. Witek

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9B.4

Evaluation of a real-time analysis of the boundary layer height

Caterina M. Tassone, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Tsidulko, Y. Zhu, J. T. Mcqueen, and G. DiMego

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9B.5

Simulating atmospheric boundary layer transition during a winter storm event with the WRF model

Wanli Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, J. A. Grim, F. Vandenberghe, A. Bourgeois, J. C. Knievel, T. Warner, M. Padovani, G. Luft, and K. Fling

11:45 AM

9B.6

Fixing WRF's High Speed Wind Bias: A New Subgrid Scale Drag Parameterization and the Role of Detailed Verification

Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 13

Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere IV

Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

10:30 AM

J13.1

Ensemble data assimilation for the short-term prediction of severe convection

Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Dowell and C. Snyder

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J13.2

Impacts of the STMAS cycling data assimilation system on improving severe weather forecasting

Huiling Yuan, Nanjing University, and NOAA/ESRL, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Y. Xie, S. Albers, and I. Jankov

J13.3

Application of a WRF mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system to severe weather events during springs 2007–2009

11:15 AM

J13.4

Comparison of RTMA and ensemble Kalman filter surface analyses

Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. F. Mass, P. Regulski, B. Colman, and L. K. Cook

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (371.2 kB)

11:30 AM

J13.5

GFS vs. GFS Parallel Model Verification for the May 1st–2nd Nashville, TN Flood

Adam Schwantes, NOAA/NCAS, Manitowoc, WI; and D. L. Carlis

11:45 AM

J13.6

Downscaling by Assimilating NWP fields into a CFD Model

Sue Ellen Haupt, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and F. J. Zajaczkowski and K. J. Schmehl

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (519.3 kB)

Lunch Break

Session 10B

Numerical Modeling III: Precipitation Modeling and Verification

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR

1:30 PM

10B.1

Quantitative precipitation forecast verification comparison between the Global Forecast System and North American Mesoscale operational models

Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, J. H. Gotway, M. Harrold, Z. Trabold, L. Nance, and P. Oldenburg

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (466.5 kB)

1:45 PM

10B.2

Comparative verification of experimental HRMOS QPFs with model and forecaster-prepared QPFs in the NWS

Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (672.1 kB)

2:00 PM

10B.3

A comparison of three high-resolution dynamical downscaling methods to examine extreme precipitation in future climate regimes

Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, G. M. Lackmann, and J. Barsugli

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10B.4

The utility of Ensemble Kalman Filter-based modeling for short-term forecasts of banded snow

Astrid Suarez, National Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves, D. M. Wheatley, and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 14

Assimilation of observations into models: Ocean and other applications

Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: George R. Halliwell Jr., NOAA/AOML

1:30 PM

J14.1

Objective Determination of Global Ocean Mixed Layer and Isothermal Layer Depths

Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and C. Fan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (913.5 kB)

1:45 PM

J14.2

Assimilating satellite and in situ data into a Chesapeake Bay model using the LETKF

Matthew J. Hoffman, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY; and T. Miyoshi, T. W. N. Haine, and D. Waugh

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J14.3

Ensemble data assimilation for wind energy applications

Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Descombes, B. Kosovic, M. D. Simpson, V. Bulaevskaya, M. Alai, and L. G. Glascoe

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J14.4

Integrating a Real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) Product into the Land Information System (LIS)

Ryan L. Ruhge, Northrop Grumman, Bellevue, NE; and M. Barlage

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Joint Session 19

High Resolution Simulations, and Applications for Aviation

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )

Chair: Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC

1:30 PM

J19.1

Verification of diurnal cycle characteristics in the CAPS 2010 Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast System

Adam J. Clark, NOAA/NSSL/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, F. Kong, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, R. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio

1:45 PM

J19.2

Simulation of MCS anvil cloud bands associated with flight-level turbulence

S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and R. Fovell

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J19.4

Algorithms for effective objective analysis of surface weather variables

Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. S. Im

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.8 MB)

2:15 PM

J19.3

Experimental LAMP 2-h convection guidance on a 20-km grid

Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky and P. E. Shafer

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 3

Forecast System Development and Applications

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

438

Of weather prediction without models II

M. Jeremie Lafitte (Levitas), Metivdata, Safed, Israel

439

Seasonal divisons and annual temperature predictions

Handout (50.9 kB)

440

Human improvement to NWP at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill, C. Bailey, M. Eckert, D. Petersen, R. Rausch, and M. Schichtel

Manuscript (402.9 kB)

441

An overview of NRL's atmospheric global modeling and research

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau, J. Hansen, T. F. Hogan, Y. J. Kim, R. H. Langland, M. Liu, J. McLay, J. R. Moskaitis, M. Peng, J. A. Ridout, K. C. Viner, T. R. Whitcomb, and E. Serra

443

Evaluation of retrospective forecasts from 2010 HFIP Stream 1.5 candidates

Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, B. G. Brown, K. Crosby, M. Harrold, T. L. Jensen, and P. A. Kucera

442

Fully Coupled Real-Time COAMPS-TC Forecasts for ITOP Experiment

444

Community Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) work at the Developmental Testbed Center

Shaowu Bao, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, C. W. Harrop, D. Stark, and L. Carson

Manuscript (53.2 kB)

445

Diagnosis of operational model track forecast error for Hurricane Ike (2008)

Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar

Handout (19.6 MB)

446

Development of GRAPES_Meso system and its performance

Jian Sun, Center for Numerical Weather Prediction/CMA, Beijing, China; and X. Shen, D. Chen, and J. Xue

447

On the improvement of cloud radiation in GRAPES global model and its forecast impact

Qiying Chen, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and X. Z. Liang

448

Comparison experiments between GRAPES_Meso and WRF

LianTang Deng, China Meterological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. Su Sr. and D. Chen Sr.

449

Moistening and heating effects of convection simulated in the JMA global NWP model

Takuya Komori, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

450

Validation of the 10-meter Winds from WRF Mesoscale Forecast over Puerto Rico

Gian A. Villamil, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR; and A. F. Adames, I. Del Valle, A. Marrero, D. Pérez-Betancourt, R. Rios, P. Sanchez, and L. F. Bejarano

451

Preliminary Research on Flooding Torrential Rain Caused by Interaction of MCC and Meso-â Scale Convective Cell in China

Jing Xi Sr., NOAA/NSSL, Yulin, China

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (69.9 kB)

452

Aviation applications of a new generation of mesoscale numerical weather prediction system of the Hong Kong Observatory

W.K. Wong, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and P. W. Chan and I. Ng

Manuscript (3.4 MB)

453

Verification of NWP turbulence intensity guidance using eddy dissipation rate from aircraft data

W.K. Wong, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and P. W. Chan and C. M. Li

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

454

Demonstrating the operational value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved profiles in the pre-convective environment

Danielle M. Kozlowski, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. T. Zavodsky and G. J. Jedlovec

Manuscript (824.8 kB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

455

Forecasting lake-effect precipitation in the Great Lakes region using NASA enhanced satellite data

Michelle L. Cipullo, North Carolina State University, Salisbury, NC; and A. L. Molthan, J. L. Case, and G. J. Jedlovec

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.5 MB)

456

Deep convection initiation in the WRF model

Elizabeth A. Rockwell, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud

457

CAPS Multi-Model Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast for the NOAA HWT 2010 Spring Experiment

Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, X. Wang, J. Gao, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

458

The severe thunderstorm forecasting component of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed spring experiment

Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, C. W. Siewert, R. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, R. S. Schneider, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio

459

Recent enhancements to real-time probabilistic thunderstorm guidance products from a time-lagged ensemble of High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecasts

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Koch, S. S. Weygandt, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, and E. P. James

460

Verification of Reflectivity and Precipitation Model Forecasts from the Hourly Updated 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 13-km Rapid Refresh (RR), and 13-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

Patrick Hofmann, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, S. S. Weygandt, and S. G. Benjamin

461

Addressing convective-scale forecast challenges with the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model

Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, and J. M. Brown

462

Using Data from the Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System to Ascertain the Near-Storm Environment near Memphis, Tennessee During the 5-6 February 2008 Tornado Outbreak

Michael B. Scotten, NOAA/NWS, Memphis, TN

Manuscript (359.6 kB)

Handout (511.9 kB)

464

Downslope Wind Forecasts in a Mountainous Region: Assessing Uncertainty in High-Resolution Modeling over the Las Vegas Forecast Zone

Andre Pattantyus, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. Chiao, S. Czyzyk, and M. J. Staudenmaier Jr.

Manuscript (582.5 kB)

Handout (312.5 kB)

463

Mapping Errors of Tornado Pathcasts: Distance Errors and Tornado Track Probability Cone

Session 11A

Operational Weather Forecasting I: High Impact Weather

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Lisa Schmit, NWS

4:00 PM

11A.1

Synoptic-scale environments and dynamical mechanisms associated with predecessor rain events ahead of tropical cyclones

Benjamin J. Moore, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO; and L. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. L. Jurewicz Sr.

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11A.2

Advances in Forecasting Monsoonal Upper Tropospheric Lows: Potential Vorticity Disturbances

Erik S. Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR; and L. Bosart, S. R. Sukup, T. J. Melino, R. H. Johnson, and Z. Finch

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (622.6 kB)

4:30 PM

11A.3

Potential vorticity disturbances as a trigger of southwest U.S. severe weather

Lance Bosart, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and T. J. Melino, S. R. Sukup, E. S. Pytlak, J. E. Matusiak, S. J. Weiss, J. Racy, and R. S. Schneider

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11A.4

A climatological analysis of deep convection interactions with the Lake Erie marine boundary layer

Thomas E. Workoff, Systems Research Group, Inc. and NOAA/NCEP/WPC, College Park, MD; and D. A. R. Kristovich, N. F. Laird, R. LaPlante, and D. Leins

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11A.5

Convective storm evolution and frequency around coastal southern New England

Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. Murray

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

11A.6

Relationship between organized convective structures and severe weather type over the northeast U.S

Kelly Lombardo, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

Session 11B

Numerical Modeling IV: High Resolution Modeling

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: William M. Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

4:00 PM

11B.1

When can high-resolution NWP model forecasts be trusted? Using error characteristics of the initial conditions to evaluate the likelihood of accurate forecasts

Craig S. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Weisman and W. Wang

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11B.2

Using Traditional and Spatial Verification Methods to Evaluate Real-Time Model Forecasts of Convection

Derek R. Stratman, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11B.3

Relationships between Sounding-Derived Parameters and Simulated Convective Storm Surface Outflows

Cody Kirkpatrick, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and E. W. McCaul Jr.

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11B.4

Probabilistic prediction of low-level vortices associated with mesoscale vortex tornadoes using EnKF data assimilation and implications for warn-on-forecast

Nathan Snook, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and Y. Jung

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11B.5

A Comparison of Model and Observed Turbulent Kinetc Energy Within Coastal Barrier Jets Forced by Landfall Cyclones

Joseph B. Olson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

11B.6

Initial condition and forecast uncertainty for the 24 December 2009 blizzard

Kenneth Dixon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. D. Reeves, D. M. Wheatley, and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 15

Assimilation of observations into models: Use of observations

Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR; Dale Barker, Met Office

4:00 PM

J15.1

AIRS near-surface atmospheric CO2 for modeling, transports and assimilation

Moustafa Chahine, NASA/JPL, Pasadena, CA; and E. Olsen, L. Chen, T. Pagano, X. Jiang, and Y. Yung

4:15 PM

J15.2

Assessing the impact of advanced satellite observations in the NASA GEOS-5 forecast system using the adjoint method

Ronald Gelaro, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and E. Liu and M. Sienkiewicz

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J15.3

Data-denial and adjoint-based forecast impact experiments during T-PARC/TCS-08

Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, P. Pauley, C. Velden, and H. Berger

4:45 PM

J15.4

Concentric eyewall formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)—Integration of T-PARC observations based on EnKF data assimilation

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. H. Huang and K. Y. Lien

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

J15.5

A retrieval strategy for interactive ensemble data assimilation

R. N. Hoffman, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. Eluszkiewicz, S. J. Greybush, M. J. Hoffman, E. Kalnay, T. Nehrkorn, and R. J. Wilson

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J15.6

Assimilation of trace gas retrievals with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

David D. Kuhl, NRL, Washington, DC; and I. Szunyogh and B. Pierce

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

J15.7

Dynamical Adjustment of Clouds in WRF based on GOES-Derived Clouds

Arastoo Pour Biazar, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. T. McNider, K. Doty, and Y. H. Park

Recorded Presentation

Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

91st AMS Awards Banquet

Location: 6ABCD (Washington State Convention Center)

Michio Yanai Symposium

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 12A

Operational Weather Forecasting II: High Impact Weather

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Cliff Mass, University of Washington

8:30 AM

12A.1

New England record rain event of 29–31 March 2010

Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12A.2

Anticipating a rare event utilizing forecast anomalies: The western U.S. storm of 18–23 January 2010

Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. Grumm, N. Hosenfeld, and T. I. Alcott

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12A.3

The great Alaska warm-up of January 2009

Shaun E. Baines, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12A.4

Climatology, Life Cycle, and Impacts of Intermountain Cyclones

W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and G. L. West, M. E. Jeglum, T. Lee, L. Bosart, J. Massey, and T. Painter

9:30 AM

12A.5

Topographic and geographical influences on regional severe tornado maxima

Grayum Vickers, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Cossuth

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Numerical Modeling V: High Resolution Modeling

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/GSD

8:30 AM

12B.1

The Rapid Refresh—Replacement for the RUC, Pre-Implementation Development and Evaluation

Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, T. G. Smirnova, G. S. Manikin, C. R. Alexander, S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, J. B. Olson, and P. Hofmann

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12B.2

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): Recent and future enhancements, time-lagged ensembling, and 2010 forecast evaluation activities

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, J. M. Brown, P. Hofmann, and E. P. James

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12B.3

A prototype implementation of the high resolution rapid refresh for Alaska

Eugene Petrescu, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK; and C. F. Dierking and D. Morton

Recorded Presentation

12B.4

WRF simulations of north flow across the Alaska Peninsula: General characteristics of wakes, jets and mountain waves

9:15 AM

12B.4A

A new bulk microphysical scheme that includes riming intensity and temperature dependent ice characteristics

Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and Y. Lin

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12B.5

A significant high wind event in Alaska's Matanuska Valley

Emily Niebuhr, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK

Recorded Presentation

Poster Session 4

Numerical Modeling and Simulations, and High Impact Weather

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Paper 491 has been moved. New paper number is 8B.5A.

Paper 477 has been moved. New paper number is 14A.2A.

465

Heavy rains and historic flooding over Pakistan in late July 2010: Synoptic conditions and physical mechanisms

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill and J. S. Whitaker

Handout (14.3 MB)

466

A Case Study of a Large-Amplitude Inertia–Gravity Wave over the Southeast

James H. Ruppert Jr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and L. Bosart

467

A Satellite Perspective of the February 5–6 2010 Snowstorm impacting the Mid Atlantic Region

Joshua Charles Jankot, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD

468

The impact of cloud hydrometeor advection on NWP model forecasts

Weiguo Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. S. Ferrier and E. Colón

Handout (1.9 MB)

Paper 469 has been moved. New paper number is 12B.4A

470

WRF QNSE test and evaluation

Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, J. H. Gotway, and P. Oldenburg

Manuscript (474.7 kB)

Handout (1.4 MB)

471

A climatology of tropical cyclone-induced tornadoes in the Florida Keys

Kennard B. Kasper, NOAA/NWS, Key West, FL

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (956.1 kB)

472

Atmospheric pressure wave inducing the meteotsunami in the East China Sea

Kenji Tanaka, Kumamoto Univ., Kumamoto, Japan

473

Dynamical Aspects of Gulf Surge Events

Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Johnson

474

Simulation of Nocturnal LLJs with a WRF PBL Scheme Ensemble and Comparison to Observations from the ARM Project

Kristy C. Carter, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and A. J. Deppe and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Manuscript (420.0 kB)

Handout (624.9 kB)

475

A comparison of WRF 3.2 and WRF 3.1.1 forecasts of seven nor'easter events

Stephen D. Nicholls, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and S. G. Decker

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

476

Analysis of summertime convective initiation in central Alabama using the Land Information System

Robert S. James, North Carolina State University, Indian Trail, NC; and J. L. Case, A. L. Molthan, and G. J. Jedlovec

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (515.1 kB)

478

The eastern United States heat wave of 3–8 July 2010

Kevin S. Lipton, NOAA/NWSFO, Albany, NY; and R. H. Grumm

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

479

A detailed analysis of SPC "High Risk" outlooks, 2003-2009

Jason M. Davis, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and A. R. Dean and J. L. Guyer

Manuscript (277.9 kB)

480

Quasi-stationary convective systems forming perpendicular to, and above the cold pools of, strong bow echoes

Kelly M. Keene, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (1.9 MB)

481

Tropical convection interaction with Alaskan weather

Bill Ludwig, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK

482

Snowfall variance in the northeastern United States: Looking at what defines a "normal" winter

Paul, O.G. Heppner, Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greeenbelt, MD

483

Very high-resolution prediction of tornado-like vortices in a long-lived mesovortex

Alexander D. Schenkman, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

484

Structure and evolution of cloud clusters occurred over southern Korean peninsula

Won-Su Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and T. Y. Lee

Handout (1.4 MB)

485

A Numerical Simulation of the Bowing Process of A Squall Line Associated with a Stationary Front in South China during 23–24 April 2007

Zhiyong Meng, Peking University, Beijing, China; and F. Zhang, P. Markowski, D. Wu, and K. Zhao

486

Simulation of the TWP-ICE case with the Vector Vorticity Model

Nicholas Geyer, Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes, University Park, PA; and T. A. Cram and C. S. Konor

Handout (785.9 kB)

487

A baroclinic instability test case on an anelastic dynamical core

Daniel A. Rothenberg, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and R. Heikes

Handout (5.0 MB)

488

An Explicit Time-Difference Scheme with an Adams-Bashforth Predictor and a Trapezoidal Corrector

Sajal K. Kar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC/IMSG, Camp Springs, MD

Handout (265.2 kB)

489

A single-source software approach for the inclusion of GPUs in community NWP models

Thomas N. Nipen, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

490

Non-iteration dimensional-split semi-Lagrangian advection with Riemann solver in non-hydrostatic system

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. F. Fan

492

Building a new atmospheric model: testing a nonhydrostatic dynamical core on unstructured variable resolution hexagonal C-grids

Maximo Q. Menchaca, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and W. C. Skamarock

Handout (3.2 MB)

Exhibit Hours

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Joint Session 8

Communicating Uncertainty (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )

Chair: Manda Adams, Univ. of North Carolina

J8.1

The Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty—Opinions From the Interface

11:15 AM

J8.2

User engagement for water resources forecasts: a framework for iterative communication

Kevin Werner, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Averyt and G. Owen

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J8.3

Current practices and future challenges in communicating hydrologic forecast uncertainty at the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Werner and M. Schmidt

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J8.4

Meaning, Context, and Weather-Related Information Sharing

Susan A. Jasko, California Univ. of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and C. M. Kauffman and P. Hettler

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

J8.5

Communicating Satellite MW Ocean Product Errors to a Variety of Users

Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. J. Wentz, K. Hilburn, and C. A. Mears

Session 13A

Operational Weather Forecasting III: Tropical Cyclones

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NHC

11:00 AM

13A.1

Improvements to the operational HWRF modeling system

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, R. Tuleya, J. Oconnor, S. Trahan, E. Aligo, N. Surgi, W. M. Lapenta, and S. J. Lord

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13A.2

Diagnostic verification of COAMPS-TC performance for the HFIP retrospective forecasts

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and R. M. Hodur

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13A.3

Sensitivity of probabilistic storm surge products to forecast track errors for Hurricane Ike

Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome

11:45 AM

13A.4

Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) modeling efforts at NWS Southern Region Coastal Weather Forecast Offices

Jack Settelmaier, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and A. Gibbs, P. Santos, T. Freeman, and D. Gaer

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

12:00 PM

13A.5

How vertical wind shear affects the intensification of Typhoon Jangmi (2008)

Levi Thatcher, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Numerical Modeling VI: Physical Parameterizations

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR

11:00 AM

13B.1

Comparison of convective initiation and evolution in 3 km WRF simulations with and without the Kain-Fritsch scheme

Jeffrey D. Duda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. Segal

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (308.9 kB)

11:15 AM

13B.2

Sensitivity of WRF-RTFDDA model physics in weather forecasting applications: From synoptic scale to meso-gamma scale

William Y. Y. Cheng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, Y. Zhang, Y. Liu, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, A. Pietrkovski, B. Mahoney, T. T. Warner, and S. Drobot

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13B.3

Thunderstorm Outflow Dust Lofting and Resulting Impacts on Convection

Robert B. Seigel, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13B.4

Comparison of hydrometeor fall speed distributions in bin and bulk microphysical schemes

Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University, Camp Springs, MD; and W. A. Gallus Jr., G. Thompson, and B. S. Ferrier

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (754.3 kB)

12:00 PM

13B.5

Impact of microphysics parameterizations on simulation of 13 March 2003 bow echo

Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, Atmospheric and Environment Research, Inc., Offutt AFB, NE; and R. Johnson and S. C. van den Heever

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.7 MB)

Joint Session 16

Assimilation of observations into models: Hybrid methods

Location: 2B (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: Kayo Ide, Univ. of Maryland

11:00 AM

J16.1

Cycling experiment results for a GSI regional hybrid ETKF data assimilation scheme for the WRF model

Arthur P. Mizzi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Z. Liu and X. Y. Huang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.2 MB)

11:15 AM

J16.2

Tests of a hybrid variational-ensemble data global assimilation system for hurricane prediction

Jeffrey Whitaker, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. T. Kleist, X. Wang, and T. Hamill

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J16.3

Use of NCEP operational global ensembles in a GSI-based hybrid ensemble analysis for the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model runs

David F. Parrish, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J16.4

Expanding the GSI-based hybrid ensemble-variational system to include more flexible parameter settings

Daryl T. Kleist, NCEP, College Park, MD; and K. Ide, J. Whitaker, J. C. Derber, D. Parrish, and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

J16.5

A GSI-based hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation system and its comparison with GSI and ensemble Kalman filter

Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Whitaker, D. T. Kleist, D. F. Parrish, and B. W. Holland

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session

Presidential Town Hall Meeting

Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; the Events; the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; and the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology )

12:15 PM

Ensuring Integrity in the Doing and Using of Science

Ralph Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

Audio File

Michio Yanai Symposium Luncheon

Location: 4C-1 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 14A

Operational Weather Forecasting IV: Product Development and Evaluation

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY

1:30 PM

14A.1

The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP

Mark Iredell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black

Recorded Presentation

14A.2

Development and validation of GFS downscaled numerical guidance

2:00 PM

14A.2A

Preliminary investigation into lightning hazard prediction from high resolution model output

Stuart D. Miller Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin, J. S. Kain, E. W. McCaul Jr., A. R. Dean, and C. J. Melick

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (814.2 kB)

2:15 PM

14A.3

Diagnosing diurnal convection signals in the NCEP GFS

Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Sun

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14A.4

Quantifying extreme rainfall threats at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, K. F. Brill, and M. Eckert

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (716.3 kB)

2:45 PM

14A.5

Automated Fog and Stratus Forecasts from the Canadian GEM Regional Operational NWP Model

William R. Burrows, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and G. Toth

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (378.2 kB)

3:00 PM

14A.6

Spatial and temporal climatology of atmospheric wave packets

Matthew Brian Souders, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and E. K. M. Chang

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Numerical Modeling VII: Physical Parameterizations

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Kay Suselj, JPL

1:30 PM

14B.1

Evaluating cloud microphysics schemes in nested NMMB forecasts

Brad S. Ferrier, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and W. Wang and E. Colon

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.3 MB)

1:45 PM

14B.2

Evaluating the performance of single and double moment microphysics schemes during a synoptic-scale snowfall event

Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.8 MB)

2:00 PM

14B.3

Implementation of the Ferrier cloud microphysics scheme in the NCEP GFS

Masayuki Nakagawa, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan, R. Sun, S. Moorthi, and B. Ferrier

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14B.4

Microphysics sensitivity studies of a heavy snowfall event in South Central Alaska

James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK

Recorded Presentation

14B.5

A Radiation Modeling Study of Cloud Fraction and Overlapping Variations in Numerical Weather Prediction

2:45 PM

14B.6

Parameterized convective momentum adjustment

Dr. Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. M. Mahoney and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (395.1 kB)

Joint Session 17

Assimilation of observations into models: 4D methods

Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: Altug Aksoy, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD

1:30 PM

J17.1

The NCAR 4DREKF ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system

Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Pan, Y. Wu, A. Bourgeois, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, S. F. Halvorson, and J. Pace

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J17.2

Sensitivity Experiments of the Control Parameters of the NCAR WRF 4DREKF Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

Yonghui Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, L. Pan, T. Warner, and J. Pace

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J17.3

Mesoscale ensemble 4DVAR and its comparison with EnKF and 4DVAR

Meng Zhang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, X. Zhang, and X. Y. Huang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J17.4

Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation with the Four-Dimensional Variational System of the Weather Research and Forecast Model

Hongli Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun and Y. R. Guo

Manuscript (4.0 MB)

2:30 PM

J17.5

Recently upgrades and improvements of WRF 4D-Var system

Xin Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Pan, Q. Cheng, and X. Y. HUang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

2:45 PM

J17.6

Introduction of GRAPES_VAR

Wei Han, NOAA, College Park, MD; and J. Xue

Recorded Presentation

Registration Closes

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Session 15A

Operational Weather Forecasting V: Product Development and Evaluation

Location: 613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Lans P. Rothfusz, NOAA

3:30 PM

15A.1

Upcoming changes to the NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling system: Transition to NEMS-NMMB and high resolution nests

Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, T. Black, M. Ek, Z. Janjic, Y. Lin, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, B. S. Ferrier, G. Gayno, H. M. Lin, W. Wang, V. Wong, and Y. Wu

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

15A.2

Some Challenges and Successes Associated with using Storm-Scale Modeling at a NWS Forecast Office

Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

4:00 PM

15A.3

Evaluation of Severe-Weather Forecasting Parameters Derived from Quasi-Real-Time Mesoscale Analyses using VORTEX2 soundings

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, D. J. Stensrud, and N. Yussouf

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

15A.4

Challenges in verifying predictions of the pre-convective environment

Scott S. Lindstrom, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. A. Petersen and R. M. Aune

Recorded Presentation

15A.5

Initialization of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with land surface data from the land information system (LIS)

4:30 PM

15A.6

A comparison of several analysis schemes in their ability to diagnose boundaries

Ed Szoke, CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, Y. Xie, L. S. Wharton, R. Glancy, E. Thaler, D. Barjenbruch, B. Meier, and Z. Toth

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.7 MB)

Session 15B

Numerical Modeling VIII: Tropical Cyclones

Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Chair: Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency

3:30 PM

15B.1

Quantification of the processes driving the overland reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and R. S. Schumacher and T. J. Galarneau, Jr.

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

15B.2

The effects of model initialization on model forecasts of tropical cyclones

Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and J. L. Franklin, R. J. Pasch, and W. Hogsett

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (705.4 kB)

4:00 PM

15B.3

Initialization of Tropical Cyclones in Numerical Prediction Systems

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and X. Ge

4:15 PM

15B.4

Impacts of the Mid-level Dry Air on the Formation of Tropical Storm Fay (2008) over the Atlantic

Cody L. Fritz, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

15B.5

Wave coupling impact on tropical cyclone simulations in global models

Yalin Fan, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

15B.6

Ensemble WRF simulations of the 1938 New England Hurricane Using 20th Century Reanalysis

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Joint Session 18

Assimilation of observations into models: Atmosphere V

Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center

3:30 PM

J18.1

Progress in Development of the Flow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model (FIM) Toward Improving NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts and Toward a Chemistry-Coupled Global Model Research Capability

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, J. M. Brown, S. Sun, J. W. Bao, S. R. Sahm, G. Grell, M. Fiorino, and T. Henderson

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J18.2

Introduction to Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System (GSI) and its User Support

Ming Hu, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Stark, H. Shao, and X. Y. Huang

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

J18.3

Improvement of microwave land emissivity calculation in the CRTM

Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. B. Ek and J. Derber

4:15 PM

J18.4

Radiance bias correction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation

Yanqiu Zhu, EMC/I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and J. Derber, A. Collard, R. Treadon, G. Gayno, and J. A. Jung

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J18.5

FIM Performance for some of the Major events of the 2009-2010 Winter Season

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, M. Fiorino, B. D. Jamison, W. R. Moninger, and S. R. Sahm

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.2 MB)

4:45 PM

J18.6

Improvements to NAVDAS 3DVAR Analysis for COAMPS

Keith D. Sashegyi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Pauley, J. S. Goerss, W. F. Campbell, W. T. Thompson, R. L. Pauley, and R. A. Stocker

Recorded Presentation

AMS 91st Annual Meeting Adjourns

24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

Monday, 24 January 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

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Thursday, 27 January 2011

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Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011

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