The Aviation Weather Forecasting Component of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
This paper will describe the results of the aviation weather forecasting component of the experiment. Each day, several forecasts were created along with subjective evaluations of the previous day's forecasts and model forecast data. The first set of forecasts, issued in the morning, included delineating areas of a slight, moderate, or high probability of radar echo tops exceeding 25,000 ft valid at 23Z and radar reflectivity exceeding 40 dBZ valid at 21Z, 23Z, and 01Z; these forecasts were updated in the afternoon with new model information. Additionally, a forecast valid at 18-00Z the next day for radar reflectivity exceeding 40 dBZ was issued during the afternoon. A number of output fields were examined for each forecast, especially the mean, maximum, minimum, probability exceedance, and probability matched mean of radar echo top and radar reflectivity. The forecasts were subjectively analyzed and collected via a web-based survey system, and example forecasts and survey results, as well as future challenges for aviation weather forecasting, will be discussed.