Session 7 Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty IV: Short-range Ensemble Forecasting

Tuesday, 25 January 2011: 3:30 PM-5:30 PM
613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair:
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO

Papers:
3:30 PM
7.1
Challenges to ensemble system design for Warn-on-Forecast
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and D. M. Wheatley
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
7.2
Evaluation of convection-allowing ensemble forecasts of extreme rainfall associated with a mesoscale vortex
Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. J. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
7.3
The performance of high-resolution WRF ensemble QPF during heavy winter precipitation events in California
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, I. Jankov, H. Yuan, J. H. Gotway, and P. Oldenburg
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (267.5 kB)

4:15 PM
7.4
NCAR ensemble RTFDDA: real-time operational forecasting applications and new data assimilation developments
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, T. Betancourt, J. Knievel, B. Mahoney, J. Pace, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, N. A. Jacobs, P. Childs, and K. Parks
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
7.5
Evaluation of storm initiation uncertainty information from a high-resolution time-lagged ensemble and its application to short-term forecasting
James O. Pinto, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Grim, D. Dowell, H. Cai, and M. Steiner
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
7.6
NCEP activities in very-short range and high resolution ensemble prediction
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Zhou, M. Pyle, D. Jovic, G. DiMego, and G. Manikin
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
7.7
NCEP model guidance for the 2009–0 mid-Atlantic snowfest
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
7.8
The global ensemble prediction system(GEPS) and regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) at CMA and its application in monsoon season
Jing Chen, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and H. Tian, G. Deng, X. Li, J. Gong, Y. Li, X. Wang, and J. Hu
Recorded Presentation

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