NCEP activities in very-short range and high resolution ensemble prediction

The talk will overview the two major activities related to producing very short-range and high-resolution probabilistic forecast guidance at NCEP. First, a time-lagged method based, Rapid Update Cycle (RUC, hourly) probabilistic forecasting system was developed for aviation users up to 18 hours in advance. At the same time, a dynamically downscaled 4km high-resolution ensemble prediction system with 44 members were produced for high-impact weather forecasting up to two days in advance. Related products and verification will be shown especially to compare with the NCEP operational 32km low-resolution short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system. Product will focus on aviation application, while verification will focus on precipitation and surface wind energy generation. The current activity and future plan of the NCEP regional ensemble prediction system SREF might be outlined as well.