Advancing the national ensemble prediction system capability

The National Weather Service recently engaged in a concerted effort to accelerate advancement of our Nation's Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) capability to support users' optimal decision making through effective production, communication, and application of high-quality probabilistic weather information. This initiative is a key part of the NOAA Strategic Plan goal of a “Weather-Ready Nation” and objective of “Reduced loss of life, property, and disruption from high-impact events” While this effort is organized by and directed at improving NWS operations, the weather enterprise is fully engaged. A governing body called the Probabilistic Prediction Advancement Committee includes representation from NOAA, NCAR, DOD weather, academia, the private sector, and the FAA. Several working groups tasked to manage specific aspects of the EPS research and development (R&D), such as ensemble design and postprocessing, are made up of a broad spectrum of expertise and interests.

The focal point of the R&D activities is the Developmental Testbed Center, Ensemble Testbed (DET), in Boulder, CO. The DET is responsible for things like establishing prototype software and datasets for community use, setting coding standards, and formalizing test and evaluation procedures. But most importantly, the DET is the conduit for getting EPS advancements funneled into operations.