Forecast products for hurricane prediction: deterministic and ensemble-based

Upgrades of the ECMWF model in the last couple of years in terms of resolution and physical parametrisations have resulted in a marked improvement in the skill of Tropical Cyclone (TC) track forecasts. Specific products for tropical cyclone forecasting have been developed focusing on TC track, intensity and genesis prediction. The information comes from both the global high-resolution (16 km) deterministic model and from the 50-member ensemble prediction system (EPS). Several of these products are widely available in real time to forecasters at the WMO designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs), which includes the National Hurricane Centre, Miami, Florida.

The talk will present the model developments that have led to improved TC forecast skill, compare verification results with other centres', give examples of new products and their availability including probabilistic information from the EPS.