15A.4
Challenges in verifying predictions of the pre-convective environment

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Thursday, 27 January 2011: 4:15 PM
Challenges in verifying predictions of the pre-convective environment
613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Scott S. Lindstrom, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. A. Petersen and R. M. Aune

The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) NearCasting tool provides information on the evolution of atmospheric thermodynamic fields, specifically the vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature as observed by the GOES Sounder and projected forward in time by a Lagrangian Model. Validation of model predictions of atmospheric destabilization (or stabilization) is not straightforward, but we will describe the various methods that are used to discern the quality of model forecasts of the vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature and how those forecasts can be used to help predict where convection may form.