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Sensitivity of global medium-range forecast ensemble distributions of SST, 2m air temperature, and 10m wind speed to parameters of a prognostic SST model

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011
Sensitivity of global medium-range forecast ensemble distributions of SST, 2m air temperature, and 10m wind speed to parameters of a prognostic SST model
Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau and C. Reynolds

Analysis perturbations of sea-surface temperature (SST), wind, temperature, and specific humidity are generated using the ensemble transform (ET) analysis perturbation scheme. The perturbations are integrated within a global model that incorporates a prognostic SST routine. Two parameters of the prognostic SST routine are varied: The warm-layer depth and the scale velocity u*. The changes to the probability distributions for SST, 2m air temperature, and 10m wind speed as a result of these parameter variations are examined.