Sensitivity of global medium-range forecast ensemble distributions of SST, 2m air temperature, and 10m wind speed to parameters of a prognostic SST model

Analysis perturbations of sea-surface temperature (SST), wind, temperature, and specific humidity are generated using the ensemble transform (ET) analysis perturbation scheme. The perturbations are integrated within a global model that incorporates a prognostic SST routine. Two parameters of the prognostic SST routine are varied: The warm-layer depth and the scale velocity u*. The changes to the probability distributions for SST, 2m air temperature, and 10m wind speed as a result of these parameter variations are examined.