Poster Session 2 Ensembles and Probabilistic Forecasting

Tuesday, 25 January 2011: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:
111
The value of ensembles and statistical post-processing for ship routing guidance
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Etro, A. Etro, J. Cook, I. Nutall, and S. Hall

112
Covarying TC-forced wind speed/wave height probabilities
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. R. Sampson, P. A. Wittmann, M. DeMaria, and J. Knaff

113
Ensemble based probabilistic forecast and its verification
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

114
Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, E. Serra, D. Hodyss, C. R. Sampson, M. Flatau, and J. A. Ridout

115
Ensemble Hurricane forecasts from a suite of Mesoscale models
Mrinal K. Biswas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

116
What is a reasonable ensemble size for operational ensemble forecast?
Juhui Ma, NCEP/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu
Manuscript (595.3 kB)

117
A dynamical performance-ranking method for predicting individual ensemble member's performance and its application to a smarter ensemble averaging
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Zhou

118
Ensemble prediction system development for hydrometeorological testbed (HMT) application
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, H. Yuan, L. S. Wharton, Z. Toth, T. Schneider, A. White, and F. M. Ralph

119
What are the added values of LAMEPS?
Yong Wang, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna, Austria
Manuscript (772.5 kB)

120
Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

121
NAEFS statistical down-scaling method applications to Alaska
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

122
Evaluating probabilistic precipitation forecasts generated by deterministic convection-allowing NWP models
Jill D. Hardy, NSF, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Novak, J. J. Gourley, and M. E. Pyle

Handout (1.3 MB)

123
Improving probabilistic ensemble forecasts of convection through the application of QPF-POP relationships
Christopher J. Schaffer, NOAA/NWS, Peachtree City, GA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. Segal
Manuscript (445.1 kB)

124
Sensitivity of global medium-range forecast ensemble distributions of SST, 2m air temperature, and 10m wind speed to parameters of a prognostic SST model
Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau and C. Reynolds

125
In-line processing of ensemble distributions in a simple model
Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Hansen and C. A. Reynolds

126
Optimization of Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, S. Moorthi, R. Wobus, J. Ma, and W. Yang

128
Ensemble-based analysis of factors contributing to the development of a multi-day warm-season heavy rain event
Russ S. Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Handout (15.0 MB)

Poster 127 has been moved. New paper number is 6A.3A.

129
Down-Selection of NWP Ensemble Configurations
Jared Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Kolczynski Jr., T. C. McCandless, S. E. Haupt, D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and K. J. Schmehl
Manuscript (1015.8 kB)

131
Prediction of the Record-breaking Rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) with a High-resolution Ensemble: Sensitivity to Cumulus Parameterization
Xingqin Fang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo

132
ensembleBMA: An R package for probabilistic weather forecasting
Chris Fraley, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, and M. Sloughter
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

133
Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
William Kleiber, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting

134
Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Uncertainty on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and rainfall
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, T. Holt, and L. W. O'Neill

135
Experimental Probabalistic Forecast Information Provided by NWS WFOs
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and S. A. Amburn

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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