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Ensembles and Probabilistic Forecasting

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Tuesday, 25 January 2011: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Papers:
 
111
The value of ensembles and statistical post-processing for ship routing guidance
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Etro, A. Etro, J. Cook, I. Nutall, and S. Hall

 
112
Covarying TC-forced wind speed/wave height probabilities
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. R. Sampson, P. A. Wittmann, M. DeMaria, and J. Knaff

 
113
Ensemble based probabilistic forecast and its verification
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

 
114
Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, E. Serra, D. Hodyss, C. R. Sampson, M. Flatau, and J. A. Ridout

 
115
Ensemble Hurricane forecasts from a suite of Mesoscale models
Mrinal K. Biswas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

 
116
What is a reasonable ensemble size for operational ensemble forecast?
Juhui Ma, NCEP/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu
Manuscript (595.3 kB)

 
118
Ensemble prediction system development for hydrometeorological testbed (HMT) application
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, H. Yuan, L. S. Wharton, Z. Toth, T. Schneider, A. White, and F. M. Ralph

 
119
What are the added values of LAMEPS?
Yong Wang, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna, Austria
Manuscript (772.5 kB)

 
120
Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

 
121
NAEFS statistical down-scaling method applications to Alaska
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

 
122
Evaluating probabilistic precipitation forecasts generated by deterministic convection-allowing NWP models
Jill D. Hardy, NSF, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Novak, J. J. Gourley, and M. E. Pyle

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

 
125
In-line processing of ensemble distributions in a simple model
Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Hansen and C. A. Reynolds

 
126
Optimization of Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, S. Moorthi, R. Wobus, J. Ma, and W. Yang

 
Poster 127 has been moved. New paper number is 6A.3A.

 
129
Down-Selection of NWP Ensemble Configurations
Jared Lee, Penn State University, State College, PA; and W. C. Kolczynski Jr., T. C. McCandless, S. E. Haupt, D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and K. J. Schmehl
Manuscript (1015.8 kB)

 
132
ensembleBMA: An R package for probabilistic weather forecasting
Chris Fraley, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, and M. Sloughter
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

 
133
Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
William Kleiber, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting

 
134
Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Uncertainty on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and rainfall
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, T. Holt, and L. O'neill

 
135
Experimental Probabalistic Forecast Information Provided by NWS WFOs
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and S. A. Amburn