Poster Session 2 Ensembles and Probabilistic Forecasting

Tuesday, 25 January 2011: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

The value of ensembles and statistical post-processing for ship routing guidance
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Etro, A. Etro, J. Cook, I. Nutall, and S. Hall

Covarying TC-forced wind speed/wave height probabilities
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. R. Sampson, P. A. Wittmann, M. DeMaria, and J. Knaff

Ensemble based probabilistic forecast and its verification
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, E. Serra, D. Hodyss, C. R. Sampson, M. Flatau, and J. A. Ridout

Ensemble Hurricane forecasts from a suite of Mesoscale models
Mrinal K. Biswas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

What is a reasonable ensemble size for operational ensemble forecast?
Juhui Ma, NCEP/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu
Manuscript (595.3 kB)

Ensemble prediction system development for hydrometeorological testbed (HMT) application
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, H. Yuan, L. S. Wharton, Z. Toth, T. Schneider, A. White, and F. M. Ralph

What are the added values of LAMEPS?
Yong Wang, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna, Austria
Manuscript (772.5 kB)

Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

NAEFS statistical down-scaling method applications to Alaska
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

Evaluating probabilistic precipitation forecasts generated by deterministic convection-allowing NWP models
Jill D. Hardy, NSF, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Novak, J. J. Gourley, and M. E. Pyle

Handout (1.3 MB)

Improving probabilistic ensemble forecasts of convection through the application of QPF-POP relationships
Christopher J. Schaffer, NOAA/NWS, Peachtree City, GA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. Segal
Manuscript (445.1 kB)

In-line processing of ensemble distributions in a simple model
Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Hansen and C. A. Reynolds

Optimization of Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, S. Moorthi, R. Wobus, J. Ma, and W. Yang

Poster 127 has been moved. New paper number is 6A.3A.

Down-Selection of NWP Ensemble Configurations
Jared Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Kolczynski Jr., T. C. McCandless, S. E. Haupt, D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and K. J. Schmehl
Manuscript (1015.8 kB)

ensembleBMA: An R package for probabilistic weather forecasting
Chris Fraley, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, and M. Sloughter
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
William Kleiber, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Uncertainty on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and rainfall
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, T. Holt, and L. W. O'Neill

Experimental Probabalistic Forecast Information Provided by NWS WFOs
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and S. A. Amburn

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner