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Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011
Inclusion of FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecasting System) is an operational multi-center ensemble forecast system that uses the global ensemble forecasts from NWS and the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). Its implementations at participating centers gave immediate benefit and positive impact for all public users and have resulted in significant acceleration in probabilistic forecast skill. For further improvement and multi-ensemble value, the inclusion of the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Operational Center (FNMOC) ensemble into NAEFS in real time operations at NCEP is scheduled by the end of FY2010. This study will evaluate the performance of FNMOC ensemble system by using standard verification tools applied at NCEP. Individual ensemble systems, i.e. the current NCEP, CMC and FNMOC ensemble systems are compared. The raw multi-model ensembles which include FNMOC ensemble will be demonstrated, too. Finally, the joined performance by using all post processes for three ensembles will be evaluated by comparing current NAEFS.