What are the added values of LAMEPS?

Over recent years Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System (LAMEPS) has become more important as a scientific tool for improving prediction of high impact weather. Remarkable progress on mesoscale predictability have been made and several LAMEPSs have been developed. LAMEPS with high quality, with more details and more added values than given by its counterpart, the global EPS system, in particular, high impact weather events to be covered with confidence, remains as a challenge.

Ensemble forecasting method has proved to be a successful way for handling those errors in the model. However, a higher resolution deterministic LAM, on the other side, is still a necessary for the weather forecast.

Then it is very naturally to raise the questions:

-- What is the more added value of LAMEPS to its counterpart global EPS? -- Is a LAMEPS adding value to its existing higher resolution deterministic Limited Area Model (LAM) forecast?

ALADIN-LAEF (Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) is developed at ZAMG (ZentralAnstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik) within the international co-operation ALADIN/LACE. It is constructed by 17 members, 18km resolution.

In this talk, those two questions will be answered by: a) comparing the performance of ALADIN-LAEF and ECMWF global EPS, one of the most advanced operational global EPS; b) verifying ALADIN-LAEF with a higher resolution deterministic model, ALADIN-AUSTRIA, which is run with 9km resolution operationally at ZAMG.