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The value of ensembles and statistical post-processing for ship routing guidance

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011
The value of ensembles and statistical post-processing for ship routing guidance
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Etro, A. Etro, J. Cook, I. Nutall, and S. Hall

We utilize optimal ship routing as a norm for assessing the value of ensemble forecasts and statistical post-processing of winds and seas. The Ship Tracking and Routing System (STARS) has been employed to provide optimal track estimates that minimize power consumption and avoid damaging winds and seas for specified routes. Optimized routes are computed for various forms of objective meteorological guidance, including deterministic forecasts, individual ensemble forecasts, ensemble mean forecasts, and bias-corrected forecasts. These optimized routes are then compared against the route obtained if the forecast guidance was the trajectory of verifying analyses.