Thursday, 27 January 2011: 11:00 AM
613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Since its initial implementation in 2007, the atmosphere-ocean coupled NCEP/EMC operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system has been providing numerical guidance on tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to the hurricane forecasters at NHC/TPC for Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Through a collaborative effort, EMC and the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) have upgraded the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) core of the HWRF system and synchronized it with the latest version of WRF NMM V3.2, allowing the operational and research communities to share the same code base and help accelerate Research to Operations to make further advancements to the HWRF modeling system.
Developmental activities for the HWRF system include the capability of multiple movable grids, coupling to HyCOM ocean model and NOAH land surface model, improvements to the vortex initialization procedure, assimilation of aircraft data for the inner core, and improvements to the physics at high resolution and a core diagnostics effort designed to identify areas for improvement.
End of the season performance of operational HWRF system for the 2010 hurricane season will be presented along with potential upgrades planned for 2011 implementation. Future advancements to the HWRF modeling system will be discussed in the context of improving forecast guidance for hurricane track, intensity, and structure forecasts.
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