Session 3B Predictability

Monday, 24 January 2011: 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair:
James D. Doyle, NRL, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA

Papers:
4:00 PM
3B.1
On the predictability of cyclogenesis and low-land snow in the Pacific Northwest
Dale Durran, University of Wasington, Seattle, WA; and P. A. Reinecke
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
3B.2
Ensemble error growth and the mesoscale predictability of cyclogenesis in the lee of the European Alps
P. Alexander Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

4:30 PM
3B.3
Characteristics of short-term predictability of land-falling cyclones along the North American west coast
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and L. A. McMurdie
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1012.3 kB)

4:45 PM
3B.4
Patterns of forecast error and analysis uncertainty in medium-range forecast skill dropouts
Rolf H. Langland, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Maue
Manuscript (2.5 MB)

5:00 PM
3B.5
Predictability and Dynamics of a squall-line and bow-echo event during BAMEX
Fuqing Zhang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Melhauser
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
3B.6
Microphysical evolution within winter snow storms over Long Island, NY
David A. Stark, NOAA-National Weather Service, Upton, NY; and B. A. Colle and S. E. Yuter
Recorded Presentation

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