Recent progress in analysis and prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (Invited Speaker)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) continues to improve operational numerical forecast products for global and regional weather forecasts and ocean, air quality and seasonal climate applications. In addition, EMC is re-engineering the operational numerical forecast systems into a coherent, flexible and componentized software framework compatible with the community-based Earth System Modeling Framework software.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) was upgraded in July 2010 following major changes to the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) in January 2009 and December 2009. A major upgrade to the North American Model (NAM) will be made in early 2011. This upgrade will feature nests for CONUS (4 km), Alaska (6 km), Hawaii (3 km) and Puerto Rico-Hispaniola (3 km). A global wave model with nest grids continues to be applied to hurricanes and the Great Lakes, the latter forced with forecaster-generated winds on the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) 5 km grid. All of the above systems are initiated with a data assimilation system using all available observations.

The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system was upgraded in October 2009 with increased resolution, updated Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model components and improved initial perturbation generation. The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) was upgraded in February 2010 with increased resolution, stochastic perturbation forcing and improved output products.

A 1/12 degree global ocean model, based on the Navy HYCOM system, will be implemented in 2011. This system will provide a foundation for local coastal applications such as ecosystem forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay and local applications run by the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) on the NCEP production computers.

NCEP's operational software infrastructure for its major numerical forecast systems is undergoing renovation. The new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) is under construction to provide a uniform software environment for the GFS, NAM, and other major component applications for ocean, waves, ensemble generation, nested domains and concurrent execution capability for major model systems. The NEMS will provide the opportunity for lower maintenance costs for NCEP's complex job suite and the opportunity to host model systems developed and maintained outside NCEP, such as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and OAR's FIM.