Verification of winds and seas forecasts from the FNMOC ensemble forecast system
The FNMOC ensemble forecast system includes the NOGAPS atmospheric and WAVEWATCH III ocean wave models. Recently added to the operational system are a data post-processing system that computes ensemble means, forecast probabilities and estimates of forecast error (ensemble spread) as well as verification against observations for the ensemble forecasts.
This presentation will describe the FNMOC ensemble forecast system, including data post-processing and verification, with emphasis on the latter. The verification system computes metrics that include bias and mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier Skill Score. It also produces information for reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams. Examples and results relevant to Navy operational activities will be provided. While current results are from raw ensemble fields, plans for future operational bias correction will be discussed.