Session 6A Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty III: Post Processing

Tuesday, 25 January 2011: 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
613/614 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair:
Craig H. Bishop, NRL, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA

Papers:
1:30 PM
6A.1
Australian approaches to probabilistic precipitation forecasting
Michael Foley, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and S. Cooper, P. Riley, E. Morgan, and J. Bally
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (589.7 kB)

1:45 PM
6A.2
Simple- and modified-poor man's QPF ensembles, and a neural network approach
Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and V. M. Krasnopolsky
Manuscript (943.6 kB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

6A.3
PAPER WITHDRAWN

2:00 PM
6A.3A
Impact of linear variance calibration on ensemble wind variance in atmospheric transport and dispersion forecasts
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, R. I. Sykes, R. Long, and A. Deng
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (806.8 kB)

2:15 PM
6A.3
Ensemble Postprocessing for Weather Trajectories
Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany

2:30 PM
6A.4
Probabilistic visibility forecasting using Bayesian model averaging
Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. M. Chmielecki
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
6A.5
Impact of Spatial Bias Correction and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging Over the Northeast United States
Michael J. Erickson, SUNY/Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. Pollina, and J. J. Charney
Recorded Presentation

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