Verification of Reflectivity and Precipitation Model Forecasts from the Hourly Updated 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 13-km Rapid Refresh (RR), and 13-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

Analysis of 2010 warm-season convection forecasts and cool-season precipitation forecasts is performed through verification of composite reflectivity and accumulated precipitation fields from three hourly-updated models running at NOAA/ESRL/GSD: the 13-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), the 13-km Rapid Refresh (RR), and the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). The RR and HRRR are Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) based models.

The inter-model comparisons look at standard verification metrics, such as Bias, CSI, POD, and FAR across a variety of reflectivity/precipitation thresholds, as well as over multiple scales, from the native model resolutions up to 80 km. Skill is analyzed as a function of lead time and time of day over multiple warm (and cold) season time periods. Particular focus is given to the comparison of precipitation forecast verification between the RUC and its future replacement, the RR. The HRRR verification is focused on the potential for additional convective forecast skill particularly at higher reflectivity thresholds.