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Human improvement to NWP at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

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Wednesday, 26 January 2011
Human improvement to NWP at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill, C. Bailey, M. Eckert, D. Petersen, R. Rausch, and M. Schichtel
Manuscript (402.9 kB)

As the skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and associated post-processed guidance continues to improve, recent debate asks to what degree can expert human forecasters add value to NWP? The Hydrometeorologial Prediciton Center (HPC) has a mission to serve as a center of excellence in quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting, winter weather forecasting, surface analysis, and the interpretation of operational NWP. Historically, forecasters at the HPC have had access to a large portion of the international model guidance suite, including multi-model ensemble information from international partners. HPC's national forecast mission coupled with its access to state of the art model guidance provides a rare opportunity to assess human improvement to NWP in an environment of ever-improving guidance. This work will examine human improvement to NWP in the HPC forecast setting using multi-seasonal verification and case study examples.