Human improvement to NWP at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

As the skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and associated post-processed guidance continues to improve, recent debate asks to what degree can expert human forecasters add value to NWP? The Hydrometeorologial Prediciton Center (HPC) has a mission to serve as a center of excellence in quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting, winter weather forecasting, surface analysis, and the interpretation of operational NWP. Historically, forecasters at the HPC have had access to a large portion of the international model guidance suite, including multi-model ensemble information from international partners. HPC's national forecast mission coupled with its access to state of the art model guidance provides a rare opportunity to assess human improvement to NWP in an environment of ever-improving guidance. This work will examine human improvement to NWP in the HPC forecast setting using multi-seasonal verification and case study examples.