Creating a Scalable Solution for Producing Quality Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) are weather forecasts issued every 6 hours, that can require frequent amending. Traditionally, TAF forecasts have required significant manual input both in creating the original forecast and, then in monitoring it for necessary amendments. This creates a scalability problem where there is a limit to the number of locations one aviation meteorologist can support without compromising the quality necessary for the aviation end users. A solution to the scalability problem is presented that uses all available datasets for aviation forecasting, refines these into a first guess TAF, and then incorporates special TAF workflow tools. A web based program where all the mechanisms necessary for editing, monitoring, and sending TAFs resides is described. The resulting system is shown to allow a single meteorologist to provide TAF coverage for 50 or more locations simultaneously. A comparison showing an improvement in overall forecast accuracy is also presented.