Nowadays, a mesoscale model (MSM) with 5 km horizontal resolution is conducted for short-term (15 or 33 hour) forecast to prevent weather disaster in every 3 hour every day by JMA in operational. For the lightning prediction, MSM-PoT (Potential of Thunderstorm), for which logistic regression analysis using MSM outputs is applied, are provided in every 3-hours from forecasts in 20 km grid using MSM outputs. In the MSM-PoT, the various traditional lightning indexes from MSM outputs (e.g. CAPE, SSI, temperature, wind speed, etc.) are adequately combined in statistical. Therefore, the accuracy of MSM-PoT is better than that of a traditional index alone.
On the other hand, 1 km horizontal resolution Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM-1km) are conducted every day for research purpose in Meteorological Research Institute of JMA. It is expected that more realistic physical and cloud micro-physical outputs are obtained from NHM-1km results. Using the outputs, we investigate whether the better lightning prediction based on atmospheric electricity is possible or not. We make indexes for lightning prediction from NHM-1km, for example the maximum vertical velocity, vertical accumulated graupel amount, collision frequency between graupel and ice-crystal, and so on.
Statistical verification in 20 km grid for the above mentioned indexes (MSM-PoT, NHM-1km indexes) in 1-month 2-seasons are conducted. As a result, MSM-PoT and vertical accumulated graupel amount in NHM-1km show the best score in other traditional indexes. In the future, we'll make a appropriate index for high resolution cloud resolving model on the basics of these results.