Progress in NOAA hourly-updated model forecasting for renewable energy guidance

NOAA has made rapid progress in the last year toward improved hourly-updated model forecasts over the lower 48 United States, significant to meet requirements for guidance for 20-150m wind and solar forecasts. This progress includes an improved version of the 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), now covering this entire CONUS domain, with better initial conditions for the HRRR due to data assimilation improvements to the 13km RUC and its successor, the 13km Rapid Refresh.

The presentation will include a road map on the relationship between the HRRR and RUC/RR, both current and plans over the next few years. The NCEP transition from the RUC to the Rapid Refresh is expected close to the time of this conference. Data assimilation improvements during 2010 for radar (reflectivity and radial wind), cloud/hydrometeor (GOES, METAR, radar) will also be presented.

The HRRR and associated data assimilation through the RUC and Rapid Refresh will provide a critical role within the upcoming DOE/NOAA project toward improved wind forecasting energy project – some details on this project will also be presented.