Verification of the meteorolgical model-based ensemble forecast system (MMEFS) SREF-based forecasts in the Ohio River Valley

The NOAA/NWS Ohio River Forecast Center (OHRFC) with the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) and Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC) have jointly developed a short lead-time probabilistic hydrologic forecast system based on the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system utilizing the SREF and GFS (and soon, the NAEFS) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ensemble forcings directly as inputs to the NWSRFS ESP system. A brief overview of the MMEFS is presented. The MMEFS has been tested experimentally for approximately two years in a real-time operational setting. Combining these archived ensemble forecasts with retrospective SREF based forecasts utilizing archive model data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), forecast data has been analyzed from 04/01/2006 to 08/03/2010. Verification results of the MMEFS probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are presented along with examples from a few selected events.