851 On the display of tropical cyclone model ensemble structure information

Wednesday, 26 January 2011
Washington State Convention Center
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, B. D. McNoldy, and R. T. DeMaria

Ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones can provide useful information on the range and and likelihood of probabilities for any given system. One of the major challenges for tropical cyclone ensembles, however, is displaying that information in a useful manner for both model verification and forecasting guidance products. This project explores the problem of displaying tropical cyclone structure information from model ensembles in a graphical format. Ensemble track and wind radii are collected from the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project demonstration models and used in a manner based on previously developed statistical wind probability products currently in operational use.
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner