Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) Weather Evaluation Team (WET) -- Past and Planned Weather Integration Efforts with Convective Forecasts

The purpose of this manuscript is twofold. First, it provides a review of the activities of the Weather Evaluation Team (WET), which is part of a joint Industry and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) effort called Collaborative Decision Making (CDM). Over ten years ago, the predecessor to the WET, the Weather Action Group (WAG), developed a process that involved industry and government participants in the production of the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). The CCFP was developed in response to the need of industry and government Air Traffic Managers to have a common forecast of convective information used in their decision making processes. In light of the concepts introduced by the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), the CCFP could be viewed as one predecessor to the Single Authoritative Source. During the period 2008 through 2010, the WET worked on a task to increase the amount of detail as well as extend its forecast time period. At the same time, new automated convective forecasts were developed and introduced to both the WET and Traffic Flow Management (TFM) community. The manuscript includes a description of how the WET has strived to integrate both Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) and fully automated products, including the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Product (LAMP)/CCFP Hybrid (LCH), the Aviation Impact Guidance for Convective Weather, the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA). The second purpose of this manuscript is to introduce the new concept called Operational Bridging. The WET first discussed Operational Bridging at the 2010 Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather (FPAW) Vision Meeting in July, 2010. Foundational materials such as a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) and a demonstration plan are now being developed by the WET. Operational Bridging is first described from within a meteorology-centric view of the CCFP forecast process. Not only does this allow the new concept to be further defined, it also lays out a transition path for the current CCFP. Operational Bridging is next described from the broader conceptual perspective of Air Traffic Management (ATM)/Weather Integration, and two key areas are explored: 1) the role of the CDM weather community in the area of automated probabilistic and deterministic convective weather forecast information and 2) the integration of probabilistic forecast information into both strategic and deterministic (tactical) ATM decision making process.