Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration

Program Chairs: David J. Pace , FAA-Retired ; Dr. Craig Wanke , The MITRE Corporation ; Marilyn M. Wolfson , MIT

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Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


Short Course Registration

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


WeatherFest

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


Welcome Reception Honoring Newly Elected Fellows
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center)

Monday, 24 January 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Registration continues through January 27

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate
Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; the IMPACTS: Weather 2010; and the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International )

Panel Discussion
Communicating Weather and Climate
Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; and the IMPACTS: Weather 2010 )
Panelists: Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune; Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre; Doyle Rice, USA Today; Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council
Moderator: Robert T. Ryan, NBC4 TV
9:00 AM
Panelist: Thomas E. Skilling
Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV, Chicago, IL

9:10 AM
Panelist: Claire Martin
Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada

9:20 AM
Panelist: Doyle Rice
Doyle Rice, USA Today, Washington, DC

9:30 AM
Panelist: Martin Storksdieck
Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council, Washington, DC

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Coffee Break

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Lunch Break

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 9
Pacific Northwest Weather including results from the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics (Co-Sponsored by the AMS Committee on Mountain Meteorology)
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )
Chairs: Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWS; H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL
4:00 PM
J9.1A
4:15 PM
J9.2
Realtime high-resolution mesoscale modeling for the Vancouver Olympics
Aijun Deng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. Stauffer, G. Hunter, J. Zielonka, J. Toffler, E. Sorbo, I. Sykes, and D. Henn
4:30 PM
J9.3
Forecasting sun vs. shade in complex terrain for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games
Rosie Howard, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull
4:45 PM
J9.4
Dual-polarized radar observations of precipitation during SNOW-V10
H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. V. Ryzhkov, T. J. Schuur, and D. E. Forsyth
5:00 PM
J9.5
The west coast thermal trough: structure, evolution and prediction
Matthew C. Brewer, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass
5:15 PM
J9.6
Wintertime extreme precipitation events and flooding along the Pacific Northwest coast
Michael Warner, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass and E. Salathé

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Reception and Exhibits Opening

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate Art Show

Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 1
Weather - ATM Integration and Translation: Model and Realization
Location: 310 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration
Chair: Marilyn Wolfson, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
8:30 AM
1.1
ATM-Weather Integration and Translation Model
Mark W. Huberdeau, MITRE Corp., McLean, VA; and D. Pace, S. Bradford, M. Fronzak, C. McKnight, and E. B. Wilhelm
8:45 AM
1.2
2010 results from the 3km HRRR - verification, case study assessment, and HRRR-based convective probabilistic forecasts (HCPF)
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, E. P. James, P. Hofmann, S. G. Benjamin, T. Smirnova, M. Hu, and J. M. Brown
9:00 AM
1.3
Use of a High-Resolution Deterministic Weather Forecast for Strategic Air Traffic Management Decision Support
Michael Robinson, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and J. Venuti and S. McGettigan
9:15 AM
1.4
Prediction of Weather Impacts on Air Traffic through Flow Constrained Areas (FCA)
Yi-Hsin Lin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and J. Sulkin and R. DeLaura
9:30 AM
1.5
Using stochastic, dynamic weather-impact models in strategic traffic flow management
Mengran Xue, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and S. M. Zobell, S. Roy, C. P. Taylor, Y. Wan, and C. Wanke

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

9:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 1
Poster Session for ARAM Symposium on Weather - Air Traffic Management Integration
Host: Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration
325
Poster 325 has been moved. New paper number 2.3A

326
Modeling Convective Weather Avoidance of Arrivals in Terminal Airspace
Michael Matthews, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and R. DeLaura
Manuscript (2.5 MB)

Handout (183.8 kB)

327
The Weather and Air Traffic Management Integration course in the graduate Aeronautics program at Embry-Riddle
John M. Lanicci, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL
Manuscript (63.8 kB)

Handout (456.7 kB)

331
Evidence of Post-Frontal Mountain Wave Enhanced Wind Shear in Juneau Alaska
Carl F. Dierking, NOAA/NWS, Juneau, AK; and F. C. Fritsch
Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (5.2 MB)

332
333
Objective calibrated wind speed and crosswind probabilistic forecasts for the Hong Kong International Airport
Ping Cheung, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and C. C. Lam
Manuscript (965.5 kB)

Handout (993.7 kB)

335
Studies of the effectiveness of the water vapor sensing system, WVSS-II, in supporting airline operations and improved air traffic capacity
Randy Baker, United Parcel Service, Louisville, KY; and R. Curtis, D. Helms, A. Homans, and B. Ford
Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (3.4 MB)

337
Impact of abnormal electromagnetic propagation on UAS risk mitigation with radar
Randall Johnson, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and M. Askelson, J. Tilley, and C. Theisen

338
On the use of low-cost unmanned aircraft platforms as part of a system to determine short-term electromagnetic propagation characteristics in the surface and boundary layers
Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND ; and D. Delene, J. Nordlie, R. Johnson, K. Strang, B. Gunvalson, P. Tselios, and M. A. Askelson

339
The Utility of TAMDAR in the NextGen-Oriented CLEEN Program
Neil A. Jacobs, AirDat LLC, Morrisville, NC; and M. Croke, P. Childs, Y. Liu, X. Y. Huang, and R. DeJong

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture
Recording files available
Session 2
Probabilistic Weather Avoidance and Traffic Flow Management
Location: 310 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration
Chair: Craig Wanke, The MITRE Corporation
11:00 AM
2.1
NextGen Trajectory-Based Integration of Grid-Based Weather Avoidance Fields
Robert Avjian, Lockheed Martin Information Systems & Global Solutions, Rockville, MD; and J. Dehn, Ph.D and J. G. Stobie, Ph.D
11:15 AM
2.2
Probabilistic pilot-behavior models for clear-air turbulence avoidance maneuvers
R. D. Sharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Krozel and V. Klimenko

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 3
Meeting Aviation Weather Requirements
Location: 310 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration
Chair: Matthias Steiner, NCAR
1:30 PM
3.1
Where is my thunderstorm forecast? The shifting paradigms of NextGen weather information
Jack May, AvMet Applications International, Inc., Reston, VA; and C. G. Souders, R. C. Showalter, J. Tauss, C. Miner, and T. Kays
1:45 PM
3.2
NOAA's hourly-updated 3km HRRR and RUC/Rapid Refresh - recent (2010) and upcoming changes toward improving weather guidance for air-traffic management
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, T. Smirnova, P. Hofmann, E. P. James, and G. Dimego
2:00 PM
3.3
The Aviation Weather Testbed: Science and Technology Infusion for Aviation Operations
Jason J. Levit, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and B. Entwistle and C. Wallace
2:15 PM
3.4
Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) Weather Evaluation Team (WET) -- Past and Planned Weather Integration Efforts with Convective Forecasts
Thomas H. Fahey III, Delta Air Lines, Atlanta, GA; and M. Fronzak, J. Huhn, K. Johnston, T. Lloyd, D. Meyer, and M. P. Murphy
2:30 PM
3.5
2:45 PM
3.6
The Network Enabled Verification Service (NEVS): A bridge between weather and ATM weather integration
Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Madine, M. A. Petty, C. Grzywinski, and J. L. Vavra

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: 601 (Washington State Convention Center)

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 4
Meeting Aviation Weather Requirements (Continued)
Location: 310 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration
Chair: Matthias Steiner, NCAR
3:30 PM
4.1
Integration of current weather systems for NextGen Aviation Weather
Robert Stamm, Raytheon Company, Marlborough, MA; and R. W. Bowne, S. Badstuebner, P. Ackroyd, T. M. Raglin, and J. Wegiel

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 1
Summary of Weather - ATM Integration Technology
Location: 3A (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration
Panelists: William Chan, NASA/ARC; Mark Hopkins, Delta Airlines; Rafal Kicinger, Metron Aviation; James E. Evans, MIT Lincoln Laboratory; Craig Wanke, The MITRE Corporation
Chair: David J. Pace, FAA-Retired
4:00 PM
PD1.1
Summary of Weather - ATM Integration Technology
Jimmy Krozel, Metron Aviation, Inc, Herndon, VA
4:30 PM
PD1.2
Meeting NextGen weather ATM integration goals, a critique
John McCarthy, Aviation Weather Associates, Inc., Palm Desert, CA; and N. Stoer
4:45 PM
Panel Discussion

Wednesday, 26 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Computational intelligence methods in aviation weather
Location: 2A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )
Chair: John K. Williams, NCAR
8:30 AM
J4.1
Intelligent Understanding and Processing of Airborne Sense and Avoid Radar Data with Antenna Diversities
Zhengzheng Li, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Zhang
Manuscript (1.8 MB)

8:45 AM
J4.2
Probabilistic forecasting of ceiling and visibility: Blending NWP, LAMP and regression
Paul H. Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Lambi, R. Bateman, and J. Cowie
9:15 AM
J4.4
Using spatiotemporal relational random forests (SRRFs) to predict convectively induced turbulence
Jonathan Trueblood, Dordt College, Sioux Center, IA; and T. Sliwinski, D. J. Gagne II, A. McGovern, J. K. Williams, and J. Abernethy

9:30 AM
J4.5
Spatiotemporal relational random forest (SRRF) prediction of convectively-induced turbulence: a severe encounter case study
Timothy Sliwinski, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Trueblood, D. J. Gagne II, A. McGovern, J. K. Williams, and J. Abernethy
9:45 AM
J4.6
Dynamic programming for aircraft routing using probabilistic global turbulence forecasts
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Abernethy, J. A. Craig, and G. Blackburn

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Meet the President

10:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
The Use of Lightning Data in Aviation Operations
Location: 602/603 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )
Chair: Kristin M. Kuhlman, University of Oklahoma
10:30 AM
J1.1
Anvil-level lightning flashes initiated by an airplane as detected by the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array
Stephanie A. Weiss, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. R. MacGorman, W. Rison, and P. R. Krehbiel
11:00 AM
J1.3
Use of inferred lighting results within a detection scheme for oceanic convection
Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Deierling and N. Rehak
11:15 AM
J1.5
Defining interest fields for 0-1 hour lighting initiation using GOES infrared temperature and reflectance data
John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and R. J. Harris, W. M. MacKenzie Jr., P. A. Durkee, and K. E. Nielsen
11:30 AM
J1.6
Radar nowcasting of total lightning over the Kennedy Space Center
Greg N. Seroka, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. E. Orville

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 19
High Resolution Simulations, and Applications for Aviation
Location: 615-617 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration )
Chair: Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC
1:30 PM
J19.1
Verification of diurnal cycle characteristics in the CAPS 2010 Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast System
Adam J. Clark, NOAA/NSSL/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, F. Kong, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, R. Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, K. W. Thomas, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio

1:45 PM
J19.2
Simulation of MCS anvil cloud bands associated with flight-level turbulence
S. B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman and R. Fovell
2:00 PM
J19.4
2:15 PM
J19.3
Experimental LAMP 2-h convection guidance on a 20-km grid
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky and P. E. Shafer

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


91st AMS Awards Banquet
Location: 6ABCD (Washington State Convention Center)

Thursday, 27 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Michio Yanai Symposium

Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session
Presidential Town Hall Meeting
Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; the Events; the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; and the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology )
12:15 PM
Ensuring Integrity in the Doing and Using of Science
Ralph Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Michio Yanai Symposium Luncheon
Location: 4C-1 (Washington State Convention Center)

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Meet the President

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


AMS 91st Annual Meeting Adjourns