92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Wednesday, 25 January 2012: 9:30 AM
Relating a Convective Translation Metric to Convective Impact
Room 335/336 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Steven A. Lack, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and G. J. Layne, M. P. Kay, M. A. Petty, and J. L. Mahoney
Manuscript (520.2 kB)

The Flow Constraint Index (FCI), based on the Mincut-Bottleneck technique, has been used in the evaluation of convective forecast products by translating both forecasts and observations into a common convective impact field. Convective forecasts can be translated using this methodology whether it is deterministic, probabilistic or categorical. The resultant translated field estimates the flow constraint (i.e. permeability) due to the presence of hazardous convection over a defined geometric grid given flow corridors of interest. This grid is often represented by hexagons over the CONUS at sizes that approximate high-altitude sectors or Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs) in order to perform meteorological evaluations on scales of interest for the strategic decision process. The FCI also can be evaluated on a non-regular grid defined by actual high-altitude sector geometry, or ARTCC boundaries, and uses traffic density-weighted jetways to define the corridors of interest. The research herein will explore the FCI translation as it relates to the issuance of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs). In particular, correlations of measured enroute FCI values to Airspace Flow Programs (AFPs) across common Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs) will be shown. Additionally, terminal convective impact will be examined as it pertains to Ground Stops (GS) and Ground Delay Program (GDP) issuances.

This research is in response to requirements and funding provided by the Federal Aviation Administration. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy and position of the U.S. Government.

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