92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Thursday, 26 January 2012: 3:30 PM
Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Torn

As part of the NSF PREDICT project, ensemble-based products have been developed with a goal to improve improved probabilistic predictions and also our quantitative understanding of the predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. The probabilistic verification of quantities based on global (ECMWF, NCEP) and regional (WRF-ARW) ensemble forecasts will be presented here, for the 2010 and 2011 Atlantic Hurricane seasons. Threshold values of common metrics including a low-layer average circulation, a local thickness anomaly, and the rates of change of these quantities, are used to determine the onset of cyclogenesis in the models. In addition to evaluating these quantities that describe the developing tropical cyclone, probabilistic evaluations will also be performed for relevant environmental characteristics such as vertical wind shear. These evaluations will help identify errors and biases in probability distributions, and improvements to ensemble prediction schemes will be suggested.

Supplementary URL: