Program: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences (92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012))

21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Program Chairs: Marina Timofeyeva , NOAA/NWS ; Eric Gilleland , NCAR ; Adam H. Monahan , University of Victoria

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Saturday, 21 January 2012

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 21 January 2012

Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Location: New Orleans Convention Center

Sunday, 22 January 2012

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 22 January 2012

Short Course Registration

Location: New Orleans Convention Center

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 22 January 2012

Registration Open for Annual Meeting

Location: New Orleans Convention Center

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 22 January 2012

WeatherFest

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 22 January 2012

92nd Annual Review and Fellows Awards

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 22 January 2012

Welcome Reception Honoring the Newly Elected Fellows

Monday, 23 January 2012

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Registration Continues Through January 25

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Session 1

12th Presidential Forum: Technology In Research and Operations—How We Got Here and Where We’Re Going

Location: La Nouvelle B-C (New Orleans Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the 17th Conference on Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 12th Presidential Forum: Technology in Research and Operations—How We Got Here and Where We’re Going; the 26th Conference on Hydrology; the Special Symposium on Technological Advances: Impacts on Hurricane Research and Forecast Improvements; the Second Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 10th History Symposium; the 28th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 21st Symposium on Education; the Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 24th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 16th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Fourth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Third Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the 10th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; the 16th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 18th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography and Climatology/ First Joint AMS-Asia Satellite Meteorology Conference; the Ninth Conference on Space Weather; the Second Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans, and Challenges; the Third Symposium on Environment and Health; and the Third Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )

9:00 AM

Scientific research and operational environmental services are profoundly affected by the introduction and application of new technologies and it seems as though these advances are now accelerating, challenging our community to constantly become better at what we do and to serve society in new and more powerful ways. We welcome two highly distinguished keynote speakers for our Presidential Forum and each will address the theme of our 92nd Annual Meeting from his and her uniquely personal perspectives.

9:15 AM

Welcoming remarks and introductions by Jonathan T. Malay, AMS President

Recorded Presentation

9:20 AM

PL1.1

The Future of Weather and Global Change Services: What can our science and technology provide

Warren M. Washington, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

PL1.2

Technology for a Weather-Ready Nation

Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

10:10 AM

President Malay will then be joined by Mr. George J. Komar, Director, NASA Earth Science Technology Office, Science Mission Directorate, and they will briefly discuss their thoughts about changes in the AMS community’s technological capabilities and in society twenty years and more into the future. They will then engage with the audience in an interactive dialog which should be an exciting and stimulating exercise of envisioning our future.

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Themed Joint Session 1

Bridging the Gap Between Artificial Intelligence and Statistics in Applications to Environmental Science

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; and the 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Cochairs: Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS; Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma; Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL

11:00 AM

TJ1.1

Redefining Atmospheric Teleconnectivity Using Kernel Mmethods

Andrew E. Mercer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and M. B. Richman

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

TJ1.2

A New Statistical Tool for NOAA Local Climate Studies

Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Hollingshead and J. C. Meyers

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

TJ1.3

The ICI-WARM Non-Proprietary Regional Frequency Analysis Tool Using the Method of L-Moments

Jason P. Giovannettone, US Army Corps of Engineers, Alexandria, VA; and M. J. Wright

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (943.6 kB)

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Lunch Break

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Session 1

Statistical Downscaling

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Fiona Horsfall, NOAA/NWS; Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria; Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS

4:00 PM

1.1

Can We See the Wind? Statistical Downscaling of Sea Surface Winds in the Subarctic Northeast Pacific

Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

1.2

A Multiscale Dynamic Downscaling Technique for Application in Geoscience and Forecast

Hongli Jiang, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

1.3

NAEFS Probabilistic Forecast Products for Alaska

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Cui

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

1.4

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) for Prediction of RTMA Variables on the NDGD Grid

Brian J. Etherton, OAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Du and T. L. Jensen

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

1.5

Downscaling NOAA's Three-Month Precipitation Outlook

Jenna C. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Timofeyeva and A. Hollingshead

5:15 PM

1.6

Downscaling Precipitation Across the Southeast United States

Adrienne M. Wootten, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and R. P. Boyles

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2012

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Session 2

Probabilistic forecasting

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Dan C. Collins, NOAA Climate Prediction Center; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Eric Gilleland, NCAR

8:30 AM

2.1

Using a Dynamical-Regime Hybrid Mos Scheme to Improve NWP Wind Forecasts

Joseph J. Nocera, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and G. E. Van Knowe

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

2.2

NAEFS Post Processing for Dew Point Temperature and Relative Humidity

Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

2.3

Second Moment Calibration and Comparative Verification of Ensemble Mos Forecasts

Bruce Veenhuis Jr., NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Wagner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (302.7 kB)

2.4

MOS Precipitation Forecasts Formatted for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

9:30 AM

2.5

New metrics for verifying ensemble spread

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Spouses' Coffee

9:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Exhibit Hours

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Session 3

Probabilistic Forecasting 2

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL; Barb G. Brown, NCAR; Eric Gilleland, NCAR

11:00 AM

3.1

Verification and Calibration of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Derived From Neighborhood and Object Based Methods for a Multi-Model Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Aaron Johnson, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (603.7 kB)

11:15 AM

3.2

Probabilistic Tropical Storm Position Forecasts

Zoltan Toth, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and W. Smith and P. T. McCaslin

11:30 AM

3.3

Developing a Global, Short-Term Fire Weather Forecasting Tool Using NWP Input Meteorology and Satellite Fire Data

David A. Peterson, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and E. J. Hyer and J. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

3.4

Using Statistical Decision Analysis to Make Better Flight Decisions: The SPARTICUS Campaign

Christopher J. Hanlon, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. B. Stefik, A. A. Small III, J. Verlinde, and G. S. Young

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Session 4

Extreme Events in Weather, Water, and Climate

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: E. Gilleland, NCAR; Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria

1:30 PM

4.1

US Landfalling Hurricanes and Economic Damage: An Extreme Value Perspective

Daniel R. Chavas, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. Yonekura, C. Karamperidou, N. Cavanaugh, and K. Serafin

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

4.2

Evidence for Clustering of Temperatures At High Levels Based on Extreme Value Theory

Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Poster PDF (803.1 kB)

2:00 PM

4.3

On the Predictability of Extreme Temperatures on Medium to Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

Violeta E. Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. I. Belanger, M. T. Jelinek, B. D. Campbell, P. Webster, and J. Curry

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

4.4

Investigating Drivers of European Hot Spells Using Extreme Value Analysis

David J. Keellings, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and M. Jones, C. Dewes, and C. Photiadou

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

4.5

A General Perspective of Extreme Events in Weather and Climate

Philip Sura, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

2:45 PM

4.6

Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo and C. Penland

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Location: Room 242 (New Orleans Convention Center )

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Themed Joint Session 9

Fifth Annual AMS AI Forecasting Contest: Wind Power Prediction Contest

Location: Room 242 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; the Third Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Chair: Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR

3:30 PM

TJ9.1

The Need for Wind Power Forecasting and Review of Current Methods

Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Wiener, W. P. Mahoney III, and J. M. Pearson

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

TJ9.2

The AMS Wind Power Forecasting Contest

Julia M. Pearson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, G. Wiener, B. Lambi, J. K. Williams, and S. Linden

4:00 PM

TJ9.3

Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms and Data Transformations for Improving Wind Power Forecasts

David John Gagne II, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

TJ9.4

Combining Multiple Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Wind Power

Aranildo Rodrigues Lima Jr., Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and A. J. Cannon and W. W. Hsieh

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

Discussion of Broad Results

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Lecture L1

Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture

Location: Room 235/236 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Special Symposium on Technological Advances: Impacts on Hurricane Research and Forecast Improvements; the Second Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 26th Conference on Hydrology; the 28th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 24th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 16th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Third Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the 10th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; the Ninth Conference on Space Weather; and the Second Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans, and Challenges )

5:00 PM

L1.1

On the role of cloud-radiative effects in tropical dynamics and climate change

Sandrine Bony-Lena, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique/Le Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France

Recorded Presentation

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Aksel Wiin-Nielsen Symposium Banquet

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Session 5

Meteorological, Climatological, and Hydrological Predictions and Projections

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Eric Gilleland, NCAR; Richard W. Katz, NCAR

8:30 AM

5.1

Comparing and Contrasting Post-Processing Approaches to Calibrating Ensemble Wind and Temperature Forecasts

Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Monache, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Wu, W. Cheng, J. C. Knievel, and S. E. Haupt

8:45 AM

5.2

Large Scale Climate Variations and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Constantin Andronache, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA

9:00 AM

5.3

UMOS-MIST Forecasts of Dry-Bulb and Dew-Point Temperatures Using the Canadian RDPS

Jacques Montpetit, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Antonopoulos and V. Fortin

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5.4

Impacts of Physical Processes on Medium-Range Forecasts in a Global Spectral Model

Byoung-Kwon Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. Hong

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5.5

A Sensitivity Analysis of Extremely Hot Days in Japan Using WRF Model

Susumu Ito, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi, Japan; and S. Iizuka, M. Kuroki, and Y. Kondo

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5.6

A Synoptic Overview of the Historic 2010 Mid-South Flood

Lee W. Campbell, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and J. D. Durkee, K. Berry, D. Jordan, R. Mahmood, G. Goodrich, and S. A. Foster

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Location: Room 242 (New Orleans Convention Center )

10:00 AM-6:15 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Exhibit Hours

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Session 6

Forecast Verification I

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Barbara Brown, NCAR; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS; Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS

10:30 AM

6.1

A Field Deformation Approach to Spatio-Temporal Forecast Verification of Gridded Sets

Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Chen, M. DePersio, G. Do, K. Eilertson, Y. Jin, E. L. Kang, F. Lindgren, J. Lindstrom, R. L. Smith, and C. Xia

10:45 AM

6.2

Multiple-Metric Assessment Strategies for QPF Verification: The Impact of Aggregation and Analysis Choices on Comparative Modeling Results

Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, J. Halley Gotway, P. Oldenburg, I. Jankov, and S. Stoytchev

11:00 AM

6.3

Evaluation of Ensemble-Based Precipitation Forecasts from an Object-Oriented Perspective

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and E. I. Tollerud, B. G. Brown, J. H. Gotway, T. L. Fowler, R. Bullock, P. Oldenburg, and I. Jankov

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6.4

Regional Evaluation of Convective Nowcasts with An Application of Contingency Table Performance Diagrams

Rita D. Roberts, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, A. Anderson, E. Nelson, and M. Pocernich

Recorded Presentation

6.5

Misrepresentation of Model Performance by Root-Mean-Squared Errors: From Mathematical Proof to Case Demonstration

11:45 AM

6.6

Introduction to Probability and Statistics Poster Session

Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. G. Brown

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Lunch Break

Location: Room 242 (New Orleans Convention Center )

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Session 7

Forecast Verification II

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Barbara Brown, NCAR; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS; Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

7.1

Verification of High-Resolution WRF-RTFDDA Based 4-Dimensional Weather Operational Forecasting System Over Eastern Mediterranean Region with Surface Observations

Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, G. Roux, Y. Zhang, Y. Liu, W. Yu, and R. S. Sheu

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7.2

Verification of Tropical Cyclone Track Predictions from an Experimental High-Resolution NOGAPS Ensemble

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, E. Serra, and J. McLay

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7.3

Predicting the Expected Skill of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Using Environmental Parameters

Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7.4

Evaluation of National Weather Service Forecast Products Using In Situ Observations in Oklahoma

Aaron M. Gleason, NOAA/NWS, Calera, AL; and J. B. Basara and D. L. Andra Jr.

Recorded Presentation

Lecture L2

Robert E. Horton Lecture

Location: Room 350/351 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Hydrology; the Events; the Second Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; the 28th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the Special Symposium on Technological Advances: Impacts on Hurricane Research and Forecast Improvements; the 24th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 16th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Fourth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Third Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the 10th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the Special Symposium on the Tornado Disasters of 2011; and the Second Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans, and Challenges )

1:30 PM

L2.1

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Diagnose the Closure Relationship Between Landsurface Water and Energy Balance

Dara Entekhabi, MIT, Cambridge, MA

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session

Probability and Statistics Posters

Location: Hall E (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Barb G. Brown, NCAR; Barbara Brown, NCAR; Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS

451

Correlation Between the Latitudinal Position of the Extratropical Jet Stream in the Atlantic Basin and Moderate Weather Extremes in Europe

Irina Mahlstein, NOAA; and O. Martius, D. Ginsbourger, and C. Chevalier

452

The Rarity of the 1938 New England Hurricane As a Case of Extratropical Transition

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

453

Climatology of Severe Weather Outbreaks

Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and J. G. Hollingsworth, C. A. Doswell III, A. E. Mercer, L. M. Leslie, and M. B. Richman

Manuscript (2.5 MB)

Poster PDF (4.5 MB)

454

Need to Document Extreme Precipitation Events and Revisit PMP for Federal Nuclear Power Plants and Dam Design

Victoria Lynn Sankovich, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO; and J. England and R. J. Caldwell

455

Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts in Four Global Models

Daniel J. Halperin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, R. E. Hart, J. Cossuth, and R. Truchelut

456

Assessing and Comparing Real-Time Northeast Pacific Atmospheric River IWV and IVT Intensities Provided by Model (GFS) and Satellite (SSM/I, SSMIS) Using DTC 's MET/MODE Object Attributes

Wallace L. Clark, Science Technology Corporation and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Wick, E. I. Tollerud, T. L. Jensen, J. H. Gotway, E. Sukovich, and H. Yuan

Manuscript (792.1 kB)

Poster PDF (537.0 kB)

457

New Particle Formation (NPF) in a Suburban Mixed-Use Land Zone Site: Statistical Relationships Between Long Range Transport, Aerosol Composition, and Size Distribution

Rufus White, Howard Univ., Washington, DC

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

458

Ensemble Statistics for Diagnosing Dynamics: Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Sensitivities Revealed by Ensemble Regression

Daniel Gombos, AER, Lexington, MA; and R. N. Hoffman and J. Hansen

459

Impact of Ensemble Initial Perturbation From Different Cyclings and Rescaling for NCEP GEFS

Juhui Ma, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and D. Hou

460

Errors in Error Variance Prediction and Ensemble Post-Processing

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (275.3 kB)

461

Object Based Verification of a Multi-Model Convection-Allowing Ensemble During the 2009 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

Aaron Johnson, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

462

Verification of Oklahoma Weather Lab Student Forecasts From 2009 to 2011

David John Gagne II, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. A. Supinie, A. J. MacKenzie, A. D. Losey, and B. R. Smith

463

Verification of Ensemble River Forecasts At Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

Andrew Philpott, NOAA/NWS/Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, PA; and P. Wnek and J. D. Brown

Manuscript (544.4 kB)

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Themed Joint Session 20

Data Mining, Prediction, and Predictability of the Climate System

Location: Room 242 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science; the 24th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Cochairs: Scott Sellars, Univ. of California; Alex J. Cannon, MSC

4:00 PM

TJ20.1

Validation of the CMIP5 Climate Models Using Network Analysis

Ilias Foudalis, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and A. Bracco and C. Dovrolis

Recorded Presentation

TJ20.2

Finding Time-Periods of Abrupt Climate Change: A Data Mining Approach

4:15 PM

TJ20.2A

Automated Tracking and Analysis of Convective Weather Systems Using the Binary Baddeley Image Metric

Benjamin R. J. Schwedler, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. E. Baldwin

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

TJ20.3

Parameter Sensitivity and Optmization in Climate Models

Annalisa Bracco, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. D. Neelin, H. Luo, J. C. McWilliams, and J. Meyerson

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

TJ20.4

Quantifying the Relationship Between Dynamical Cores and Physical Parameterizations by Object-Based Methods

Soner Yorgun, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. B. Rood

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

TJ20.5

A Comparison of Nonlinear and Linear Statistical Downscaling for Future Climate

Carlos Felipe Gaitan, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. J. Cannon

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

TJ20.6

An Application of a Newly Developed Machine Learning Technique for Predicting Climate-Meningitis Seasonal Outlook Over West Africa

Isaac K. Tetteh, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. L. Gonzalez II, Z. Chen, N. F. Samatova, and F. H. M. Semazzi

5:30 PM

TJ20.7

Semi-Supervised Multivariate Regression Trees in Synoptic Climatology: Putting the "Circulation" Back Into a "Circulation-to-Environment" Synoptic Classifier

Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2012

92nd AMS Awards Banquet

Thursday, 26 January 2012

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Session 8

Statistical Data Analysis in the Geophysical Sciences

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Philip Sura, The Florida State University; Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria; Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS

8:30 AM

8.1

Improving the Actual Coverage of Subsampling Confidence Intervals for Parameters of Atmospheric Time Series

Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN ; and T. Nielsen

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8.2

Considerations When Validating Severe Weather Diagnostic Variables

Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

9:00 AM

8.3

Statistical Analysis of Mesoscale Convective System Mountain Initiation Locations

Elisabeth F. Callen, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and D. F. Tucker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (508.3 kB)

9:15 AM

8.4

Objective Analysis of Mos Forecasts and Observations in Sparse Data Regions

Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. S. Im and G. A. Wagner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

8.5

The Reliability of Texas Wind-Speed Forecasts

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Exhibit Hours

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Session 9

Statistical Data Analysis in the Geophysical Sciences II

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

CoChair: Philip Sura, The Florida State University

11:00 AM

9.1

A Low-Dimensional Representation for Spatial Patterns of Variability with Applications to Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis

Xu Tian, Department of Statistics/UC IRVINE, IRVINE, CA

11:15 AM

9.2

Evaluation of the Informational Value of Pressure-Based Proxies for Past Storm Activity

Oliver Krueger, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; and H. von Storch

11:30 AM

9.3

Composite Maps of East Coast Bomb and Ordinary Cyclogenesis and Associated Quasigeostrophic Analyses

Evan Thomas, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9.4

The Probability Distribution of Land Surface Wind Speeds

Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Y. He, N. A. McFarlane, and A. Dai

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Lunch Break

T. N. Krishnamurti Symposium Luncheon

Location: Room 345 (New Orleans Convention Center )

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Session 10

Ensemble prediction

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Eric Gilleland, NCAR

1:30 PM

10.1

Probabilistic Weather Predictions Based on Analog Forecasts

Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Eckel, D. L. Rife, B. Nagarajan, and K. R. Searight

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10.2

Determining the Value of Additional Models in Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction

Dan C. Collins, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and D. A. Unger

2:00 PM

10.3

Estimating the Accuracy of Error Variance Predictions: What Can Be Deduced From Data?

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop and D. D. Kuhl

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10.4

"Superparameterization" and Statistical Emulation in the Lorenz '96 System

Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

Manuscript (559.7 kB)

2:30 PM

10.5

On the Efficiency of the Ensemble in Representing the Local Error Space

Istvan Szunyogh, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and E. A. Satterfield

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10.6

Preliminary Tests of Stochastic Physics Schemes with NCEP Operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Coffee Break

Meet the President

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2012

Session 11

Ensemble Prediction 2

Location: Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )

Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Cochairs: David A. Peterson, University of Nebraska; Barb G. Brown, NCAR; Eric Gilleland, NCAR

3:30 PM

11.1

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Torn

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

11.2

Evaluation of Ensembles of Opportunity Available During Hazardous Weather Testbed 2011 Spring Experiment

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and B. J. Etherton, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, C. J. Melick, F. Kong, M. Xue, M. C. Coniglio, J. S. Kain, M. Harrold, and G. DiMego

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

11.3

Tropical cyclone probabilistic prediction through multi-model ensemble forecasts

Jiayi Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11.4

Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System

James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and J. A. Curry

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM