92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)

Session 10 Ensemble prediction

Thursday, 26 January 2012: 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
Room 238 (New Orleans Convention Center )
Host: 21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
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Cochairs:  Thomas M. Hopson; Barbara G. Brown and Eric Gilleland, NCAR
Papers:
  1:30 PM
10.1
Probabilistic Weather Predictions Based on Analog Forecasts
Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Eckel, D. L. Rife, B. Nagarajan, and K. R. Searight
Recorded Presentation

  1:45 PM
10.2
Determining the Value of Additional Models in Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction
Dan C. Collins, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and D. A. Unger

  2:00 PM
10.3
Estimating the Accuracy of Error Variance Predictions: What Can Be Deduced From Data?
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop and D. D. Kuhl
Recorded Presentation

  2:15 PM
10.4
"Superparameterization" and Statistical Emulation in the Lorenz '96 System
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
Manuscript (559.7 kB)

  2:30 PM
10.5
On the Efficiency of the Ensemble in Representing the Local Error Space
Istvan Szunyogh, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and E. A. Satterfield
Recorded Presentation

  2:45 PM
10.6
Preliminary Tests of Stochastic Physics Schemes with NCEP Operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
Recorded Presentation

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