This paper presents analyses and initial results toward creating a probabilistic oceanic convection likelihood guidance based on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. The Total Column Water (TCW) content field from global ensemble models has been used as a proxy for oceanic convection and evaluated against hourly CPC MORPHing (CMORPH) rainfall rate retrievals to better understand model performance in forecasting oceanic convection as a function of storm size, forecast lead time and geographical regions. The evaluation has been performed on a few past accidents/incidents cases as well as one month of TIGGE ensemble forecasts from selected NWP centers. Preliminary results suggest that model performance is dependent on storm type, geographic region, TCW threshold, and NWP center. Additional research is needed to better understand and characterize these dependencies toward developing a viable methodology for creating probabilistic oceanic convection likelihood guidance for offshore and transoceanic flights with a 24-36 hour outlook that could be used to aid aviation weather forecasters in their forecast product development and/or serve as guidance to airline dispatchers for planning transoceanic flights.
This research is supported by the FAA. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.