Statistical Methods and Meteorology-Impacted Decision Makers in the U.S. Navy (Invited)

A challenge in providing useful guidance for complex decisions is the development of trust with the end user. A product must be simple enough to quickly communicate decision-relevant information, but complex enough to enable the decision maker to understand why the information looks the way it does. Training is a crucial component, but so is the ability of the product developer to understand the mental process of the decision maker. Several examples in the context of U.S Navy operations will be presented. These include i) ensemble-based sensitivity estimates to help forecasters understand the physical reasons behind large forecast uncertainty, ii) guidance products leveraging wind speed probability forecasts and existing forecaster processes to aid in tropical cyclone sortie decisions, iii) relevant verification of pirate attack probability forecasts, and iv) important design considerations for surveillance and interdiction optimal asset allocation systems to combat illicit trafficking.