Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction

Program Chairs: Scott Sellars , Univ. of California ; Bob Glahn , NOAA/NWS ; Dan C. Collins , NOAA Climate Prediction Center ; Barbara G. Brown , NCAR

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Saturday, 5 January 2013

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 5 January 2013


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration for Short Course and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


WeatherFest
Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (Austin Convention Center)

Monday, 7 January 2013

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Registration Continues Through January 9
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Plenary Session
13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today; the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Eighth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the First Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Sixth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Special Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; the 10th Conference on Space Weather; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; the Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 11th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the Robert A. Duce Symposium; the Third Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fourth Conference on Environment and Health )
8:30 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Dr. Louis Uccellini and Co-Chairs Troy Kimmel/Ken Carey will introduce Texas and Local Representatives)
8:35 AM
Warm Welcome to Austin!

8:45 AM
Introduction of Guest Speakers (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

8:50 AM
"Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific Progress and Future Opportunities" Dr. Alan Thorpe, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
9:10 AM
"River/Rainfall Forecast Fusion Cells" Major General Michael Walsh, US Army Corps of Engineers
9:30 AM
"Cloudy with the Chance of Insight" Dr. Tony Hey, Microsoft Research
9:50 AM
"Where Citizens are Looking" Dr. Nigel Snoad, Google Crisis Response
10:10 AM
Audience Question and Answer (moderated by Dr. William (Bill) Hooke)
10:25 AM
Closing Remarks (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


5
From Predictions to Impact Based Decisions: Linking Water, Weather, Coastal and Climate
Location: Ballroom G (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; and the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise )
Moderator: Paul Sandifer, Chief Science Advisor, NOAA's National Ocean Service, Charleston, SC
Panelists: James Porter, Chief, Water System Operations, Bureau of Water Supply, NYC Department of Environmental Protection, Grahamsville, NY; Robert Hartman, NOAA/NWS, Sacramento, CA; John C. Schaake, Consulting Hydrologist, Annapolis, MD
11:00 AM
John Schaake Presentation

11:15 AM
NYC Water Supply by Jim Porter

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 15
Determining the Uncertainty of Climate Predictions and Projections and Best Practices for Users of Climate Information
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Dan Collins, NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD
8:30 AM
TJ15.1
Uncertainties in Regional Simulations of the U.S. Climate in the 20th and 21st Centuries
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC; and L. E. Stevens and J. G. Dobson
8:45 AM
TJ15.2
Determining Land-Atmosphere Coupling Trends in a Changing Climate from Multi-Model Ensembles
Paul A. Dirmeyer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and Y. Jin, B. Singh, and X. Yan
9:15 AM
TJ15.4
Examining the stationarity assumption in statistical downscaling of climate projections: Is past performance an indication of future results?
Keith W. Dixon, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and K. Hayhoe, J. Lanzante, A. M. K. Stoner, and A. Radhakrishnan
9:30 AM
TJ15.5
Incorporating MJO and ENSO information into probabilistic temperature forecasts over North America
Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and D. Collins, S. B. Feldstein, M. L'Heureux, and E. E. Riddle

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Themed Joint Poster Session
Determining the Uncertainty of Climate Predictions and Projections and Best Practices for Users of Climate Information
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Dan Collins, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
119
Uncertainty in the CMIP5 Projections over South Asia
Moetasim Ashfaq, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. Rastogi and D. Touma

120
Quantification of Model Parameterization Uncertainty in the NASA GEOS GCM
Derek J. Posselt, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and B. Fryxell

122
How does the drought of 2012 compare to earlier droughts in Kansas, USA?
Aavudai Anandhi, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS; and M. Knapp, S. L. Huchinson, and C. W. Rice

124
A Combined Dynamical/Statistical Technique for Regionalizing an Ensemble of Climate Change Signals
Daniel B. Walton, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and F. Sun, A. Hall, and X. Qu

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


4
Cause and Effect: Detecting Planned and Inadvertent Changes in the Weather
Location: Room 9A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Moderators: Daniel Breed, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Panelists: Arlen Huggins, DRI, Reno, NV; Marion P. Mittermaier, Met Office, Exeter, ; Tressa Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; David W. Pierce, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA
11:00 AM
Detection and Attribution by David Pierce

11:15 AM
Panel Discussion

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Lunch Break

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Duce Symposium Banquet
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 32
The Verification of Hydrometeorological Predictions: Theory, Methods and Case Studies
Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Scott Sellars, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA
8:30 AM
TJ32.1
Hidden Error Variance Theory: Application to Ensemble Post-Processing
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop
8:45 AM
TJ32.2
HMT-West lessons learned—I: Appropriate QPF verification techniques
Edward Tollerud, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, P. Oldenburg, T. L. Fowler, S. Stoytchev, and B. G. Brown

9:00 AM
TJ32.3
HMT-West Lessons Learned—II: Use of MET for Evaluation and Diagnostics During Forecast Experiments
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and E. I. Tollerud, B. J. Etherton, J. H. Gotway, P. Oldenburg, T. L. Fowler, B. G. Brown, S. Stoytchev, and L. E. Coco
9:30 AM
TJ32.5
Evaluation of TRMM Daily Precipitation Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall using PACRAIN Data
Yingjun Chen, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and E. Ebert, K. J. E. Walsh, and N. E. Davidson
9:45 AM
TJ32.6

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Lunch Break

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Themed Joint Poster Session
Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Posters
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Dong-Jun Seo, University of Texas, Arlington, TX
517
Rice University FEMA Project
Andrew Juan, Rice University, Houston, TX; and N. Z. Fang

520
Examining Hurricane Rainfall Patterns in the Upper Gulf of Mexico
Roni Deitz, Rice University, Houston, TX; and P. B. Bedient and M. Horn

521
A simple model for monthly river flow forecasting
Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. L. Kiviat, K. Sakaguchi, and A. M. A. Mahmoud

522
525
Complexities in power-law modeling of river discharge time series
Matthew C. Bowers, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung and J. Gao

526
Intermittent chaos in river flow dynamics
Jianbo Gao, Wright State University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

528
530
An Examination of Soil Moisture Conditions in the Babocomari River Basin: The Flood Event of 23 July 2008
Robert J. Zamora, NOAA/ERL, Boulder, CO; and E. Clark, E. Rogers, M. B. Ek, and T. Lahmers

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 42
Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Part I
Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Gregory P. Shelton, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX
4:00 PM
TJ42.1
The development of a coupled surface water inundation modelling system
Heather Ashton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and M. Best, J. Neal, and G. De Almeida
4:15 PM
TJ42.2
Fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction of catastrophic Mediterranean floods
David J. Gochis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Parodi, R. Rudari, S. Gabellani, and N. Rebora
4:45 PM
TJ42.4
A Flash Flood Response Tool for Hawaii
Bill Ward, NWS, Honolulu, HI

5:00 PM
TJ42.5
Towards a New System for Analysis of Environmental Disasters and Risk Assessment
Ana M. B. Nunes, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and N. F. Fernandes, G. B. França, M. N. O. Peixoto, I. S. Carvalho, and G. C. Silva Jr.

5:15 PM
On the Changes of the Hydrological Balance of Caribbean Lakes – Modeling and Observations
Daniel Comarazamy, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. Gonzalez, E. Glen, and R. Gonzalez

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


93rd AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

Thursday, 10 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 1
Diversity of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Location: Room 18C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Chair: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
CoChair: Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY
9:00 AM
1.2
9:15 AM
1.3
9:30 AM
1.4
Poster Session Introduction
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. J. Mason
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 45
Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Part II
Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Dong-Jun Seo, University of Texas, Arlington, TX
CoChair: Gregory P. Shelton, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX
8:45 AM
TJ45.2
Evaluation of Flash Flood Guidance in the US
Jonathan J. Gourley, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and R. Clark III, E. Clark, Z. L. Flamig, and Y. Hong
9:00 AM
TJ45.3
Evaluation of the NWS Distributed Hydrologic Model over the Trinity River Basin in Texas
Arezoo Rafieei Nasab, University of Texas, Arlington, TX; and D. J. Seo, R. Corby, and P. W. McKee

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session
Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Organizer: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
862
An approach for addressing Non-Gaussian error in microphysical parameterization
Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Columbia Univ. & NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and T. Vukicevic and D. J. Posselt

Handout (2.3 MB)

865
A multi-model approach to operational NWP bias correction
Rob Davis, Pelmorex - The Weather Network, Oakville, ON, Canada; and I. Russell

Handout (1.1 MB)

866
An Improvement of NAEFS SPP – 2nd Moment Adjustment
Hong Guan, EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and B. Cui

867
Forecasting Ozone Exceedances in the Mid-Atlantic using Ensemble Statistical Models
Gregory G. Garner, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. M. Thompson and W. F. Ryan

868
Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations
Megan Kirchmeier, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Lorenz and D. J. Vimont

869
Optimum Usage of Prior Forecast Information for Bias Correction
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Cui
Manuscript (851.7 kB)

Handout (851.7 kB)

870
Objective Climatological Analysis of Warm Season Extreme Events during the North American Monsoon
Jeremy J. Mazon, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. Castro, H. I. Chang, M. Leuthold, and J. J. Brost

872
Evaluating severe weather composite indices as diagnostic variables and forecast parameters
Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and M. W. Stanford

873
Verification of Extreme Precipitation Events
John C. Schaake, Consultant, Annapolis, MD; and R. Hartman

874
Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting using Stormscale Ensembles
Jill D. Hardy, University of Oklahoma, Ijamsville, MD; and J. J. Gourley, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, D. Novak, and Y. Hong

Handout (1.3 MB)

875
New developments of the real-time operational NCAR-ATEC ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, J. Knievel, G. Roux, W. Wu, Y. Wu, J. C. Pace, S. F. Halvorson, and F. W. Gallagher

876
Assessing Numerical Weather Prediction Uncertainty in Warm-Season Rainfall Ensemble Simulations
Andrew E. Mercer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and J. Dyer

877
Prediction of Extreme Rainfall in the Tropical Southwest Pacific using a Poor Man's Ensemble
Timothy Hume, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, Victoria, Australia; and S. Nguyen

Handout (4.0 MB)

879
Application of a Random Forest Approach to Model Output Statistics for use in Day Ahead Wind Power Forecasts
Edward J. Natenberg, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and D. J. Gagne II, J. W. Zack, J. Manobianco, G. E. Van Knowe, and T. Melino

Handout (1.7 MB)

881
The Use of Analog Ensembles to Improve Short-Term Wind Forecasting
Steven Young, AWS Truepower LLC, Troy, NY; and J. W. Zack

Handout (1.7 MB)

883
Two Types of Statistical Climate Index Prediction
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA

884
Dynamical-important Monte-Carlo method in climate system
Jing-Dong Bao, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 2
Hydrometeorological Forecast Applications
Location: Room 18C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Chair: Scott Sellars, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA
CoChair: Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC
11:00 AM
2.1
Assessing Advances in Streamflow Forecasting Methods using Hindcasts and Probabilistic Verification (Invited)
Terri Hogue, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and B. Muhammad, K. Franz, and K. He

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 3
Statistical Post-Processing and Downscaling
Location: Room 18C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Chair: Marion P. Mittermaier, Met Office, Exeter,
CoChair: David Bright, NOAA/NWSFO, Portland, OR
1:30 PM
3.1
The effects of statistical post-processing on resolution (Invited)
Simon J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY
2:30 PM
3.3A
Poster 868 will also present as 3.3A

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Levels 3 and 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 4
Ensembles and Applications
Location: Room 18C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Chair: Bradley R. Colman, NOAA/NWS, Seattle, WA
CoChair: Laurence J. Wilson, EC, Dorval, QC

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


AMS 93rd Annual Meeting Adjourns