Poster Session Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction

Thursday, 10 January 2013: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM
Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Organizer:
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Research Applications Program, Boulder, CO

Papers:
862
An approach for addressing Non-Gaussian error in microphysical parameterization
Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Columbia Univ. & NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and T. Vukicevic and D. J. Posselt

Handout (2.3 MB)

863
Producing new extended-range probabilistic tornado forecasts through statistical post-processing using a reforecast dataset
Francisco M. Alvarez, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO; and T. Hamill, T. Eichler, and C. Graves

864
Probabilistic projection of regional climate change based on CMIP5 long-term experiments

865
A multi-model approach to operational NWP bias correction
Rob Davis, Pelmorex - The Weather Network, Oakville, ON, Canada; and I. Russell

Handout (1.1 MB)

866
An Improvement of NAEFS SPP – 2nd Moment Adjustment
Hong Guan, EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and B. Cui

Statistical scenario forecasting

867
Forecasting Ozone Exceedances in the Mid-Atlantic using Ensemble Statistical Models
Gregory G. Garner, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. M. Thompson and W. F. Ryan

868
Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations
Megan Kirchmeier, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Lorenz and D. J. Vimont

869
Optimum Usage of Prior Forecast Information for Bias Correction
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Cui
Manuscript (851.7 kB)

Handout (851.7 kB)

870
Objective Climatological Analysis of Warm Season Extreme Events during the North American Monsoon
Jeremy J. Mazon, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. Castro, H. I. Chang, M. Leuthold, and J. J. Brost

871
Studying error growth in the tropical cyclone genesis environment with mesoscale high-resolution ensemble forecasts
Levi S. Thatcher, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

872
Evaluating severe weather composite indices as diagnostic variables and forecast parameters
Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and M. W. Stanford

873
Verification of Extreme Precipitation Events
John C. Schaake, Consultant, Annapolis, MD; and R. Hartman

874
Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting using Stormscale Ensembles
Jill D. Hardy, University of Oklahoma, Ijamsville, MD; and J. J. Gourley, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, D. Novak, and Y. Hong

Handout (1.3 MB)

875
New developments of the real-time operational NCAR-ATEC ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, J. Knievel, G. Roux, W. Wu, Y. Wu, J. C. Pace, S. F. Halvorson, and F. W. Gallagher

876
Assessing Numerical Weather Prediction Uncertainty in Warm-Season Rainfall Ensemble Simulations
Andrew E. Mercer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and J. Dyer

877
Prediction of Extreme Rainfall in the Tropical Southwest Pacific using a Poor Man's Ensemble
Timothy Hume, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, Victoria, Australia; and S. Nguyen

Handout (4.0 MB)

878
A Probabilistic Forecast for Rainfall based on Bayesian estimation methond and Its Preliminary Experiments over china

879
Application of a Random Forest Approach to Model Output Statistics for use in Day Ahead Wind Power Forecasts
Edward J. Natenberg, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and D. J. Gagne II, J. W. Zack, J. Manobianco, G. E. Van Knowe, and T. Melino

Handout (1.7 MB)

880
An Error Analysis of Daily MOS Temperature Forecasts: Laying the Groundwork for Bias Correction

881
The Use of Analog Ensembles to Improve Short-Term Wind Forecasting
Steven Young, AWS Truepower LLC, Troy, NY; and J. W. Zack

Handout (1.7 MB)

882
Precipitation Extremes Modeling in the Brazilian Northeast via Generalized Linear Models

883
Two Types of Statistical Climate Index Prediction
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA

884
Dynamical-important Monte-Carlo method in climate system
Jing-Dong Bao, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

885
Comparison of Statistical Techniques as Applied to Short Term Wind Power Forecasting

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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