Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction

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Thursday, 10 January 2013: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM
Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Organizer:  Barbara G. Brown, Research Applications Program, NCAR, Boulder, CO
An approach for addressing Non-Gaussian error in microphysical parameterization
Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and T. Vukicevic and D. J. Posselt

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

A multi-model approach to operational NWP bias correction
Rob Davis, Pelmorex - The Weather Network, Oakville, ON, Canada; and I. Russell

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

An Improvement of NAEFS SPP 2nd Moment Adjustment
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and B. Cui

Forecasting Ozone Exceedances in the Mid-Atlantic using Ensemble Statistical Models
Gregory G. Garner, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. M. Thompson and W. F. Ryan

Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations
Megan Kirchmeier, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Lorenz and D. J. Vimont

Optimum Usage of Prior Forecast Information for Bias Correction
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Cui
Manuscript (851.7 kB)

Poster PDF (851.7 kB)

Objective Climatological Analysis of Warm Season Extreme Events during the North American Monsoon
Jeremy J. Mazon, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, H. I. Chang, M. Leuthold, and J. J. Brost

Evaluating severe weather composite indices as diagnostic variables and forecast parameters
Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and M. W. Stanford

Verification of Extreme Precipitation Events
John C. Schaake, Consultant, Annapolis, MD; and R. Hartman

Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting using Stormscale Ensembles
Jill D. Hardy, University of Oklahoma, Ijamsville, MD; and J. J. Gourley, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, D. Novak, and Y. Hong

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

New developments of the real-time operational NCAR-ATEC ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, J. Knievel, G. Roux, W. Wu, Y. Wu, J. C. Pace, S. F. Halvorson, and F. W. Gallagher

Assessing Numerical Weather Prediction Uncertainty in Warm-Season Rainfall Ensemble Simulations
Andrew E. Mercer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and J. Dyer

Prediction of Extreme Rainfall in the Tropical Southwest Pacific using a Poor Man's Ensemble
Timothy Hume, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, Victoria, Australia; and S. Nguyen

Poster PDF (4.0 MB)

Application of a Random Forest Approach to Model Output Statistics for use in Day Ahead Wind Power Forecasts
Edward J. Natenberg, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and D. J. Gagne II, J. W. Zack, J. Manobianco, G. E. Van Knowe, and T. Melino

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)

The Use of Analog Ensembles to Improve Short-Term Wind Forecasting
Steven H. Young, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and J. W. Zack

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)

Two Types of Statistical Climate Index Prediction
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA

Dynamical-important Monte-Carlo method in climate system
Jing-Dong Bao, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China