J13.1
Drought Predictability and Prediction Skill on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales
Drought Predictability and Prediction Skill on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales
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Wednesday, 5 February 2014: 10:30 AM
Room C209 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
This presentation examines our current understanding of the causes of drought and heat waves and the implications for predictability and prediction skill with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Issues that will be examined include the competing/reinforcing impacts of the different ocean basins, the modulating/amplifying influences of land-atmosphere feedbacks, and the importance of internal atmospheric noise. Examples will be presented of efforts to predict/simulate recent high impact drought and heat wave events, taking advantage of the results from various AMIP-style simulations and coupled model hindcasts.