Drought Predictability and Prediction Skill on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales

This presentation examines our current understanding of the causes of drought and heat waves and the implications for predictability and prediction skill with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Issues that will be examined include the competing/reinforcing impacts of the different ocean basins, the modulating/amplifying influences of land-atmosphere feedbacks, and the importance of internal atmospheric noise. Examples will be presented of efforts to predict/simulate recent high impact drought and heat wave events, taking advantage of the results from various AMIP-style simulations and coupled model hindcasts.